yoda Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Thread been give 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 8, 2022 Author Share Posted November 8, 2022 34 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: From a WPC met on Twitter: 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 8, 2022 Author Share Posted November 8, 2022 12z CMC looks like 2 to 3 inches of rain for the majority of the LWX CWA 12z GFS has the heaviest rain a bit further west along the BR... 2 to 4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Well, honestly, we could use the rain for sure. A good 2-4" swath area-wide would help, and perhaps not be overwhelming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Any analogs for November tropical events and a snowy winter? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 8, 2022 Author Share Posted November 8, 2022 Afternoon AFD from LWX mentions severe weather threat LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The long term period will begin with remnants of Nicole moving north through our area. Recent guidance is trending quicker than in previous days which would bring rain to the area Friday morning and lasting throughout the day. Heavy rain on Friday could lead to isolated to scattered instances of flooding with PWAT values nearing and greater than 2 inches. The track of remnants of Nicole will determine the amount and location of rainfall. Nevertheless, guidance indicates high probabilities of over an inch of rain and up to 4 inches of rain for the area. While CAPE is limited (less than 150 J/kg), there will be upward to 50 knots of bulk shear over our area Friday afternoon making thunderstorms and severe weather possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 8, 2022 Author Share Posted November 8, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Track looks good for us in NE MD for rain/wind Fri night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 4" of rain is pretty impressive. I keep thinking, if it slowed down, we have a real nice cold shot coming 1-2 days later.. at least for inlandPSU and company lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Perfect track right over Carroll County. Hopefully the beginning of exciting weather for my second season living on the highlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Would like to see the track shift a bit east over MD and slow down a tad. Would probably mean more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 I'll take my .25 of rain and be happy I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Pretty clear trend in the guidance for a further west track which will knock down rain totals for those of us along the I-95 corridor. It does, however, open the door for a TOR threat, although instability may be too meager to take advantage of the very strong low-level shear. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 9, 2022 Author Share Posted November 9, 2022 17 minutes ago, high risk said: Pretty clear trend in the guidance for a further west track which will knock down rain totals for those of us along the I-95 corridor. It does, however, open the door for a TOR threat, although instability may be too meager to take advantage of the very strong low-level shear. Instability is below 500 J/KG... but those are some impressive looking hodos on the 00z NAM for Friday evening into early Saturday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 9, 2022 Author Share Posted November 9, 2022 00z GFS still drops 2-3 inches across much of VA from CHO to I95 corridor into C MD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 9, 2022 Author Share Posted November 9, 2022 MRGL risk of severe on Friday afternoon into Friday night per Day 3 SPC OTLK 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 8 hours ago, high risk said: Pretty clear trend in the guidance for a further west track which will knock down rain totals for those of us along the I-95 corridor. It does, however, open the door for a TOR threat, although instability may be too meager to take advantage of the very strong low-level shear. Question about how Nicole formed. If it started as a subtropical storm, doesn't that change where the wind field is located within the storm? If it does, could that wind field shift as it strengthens and becomes a hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 At this rate Friday might be a good day to be outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Ava showed graphics of the wind field during her morning weather hits. I like that, make people aware that yes, it's going to be rainy but gusty too 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 2 hours ago, mappy said: Ava showed graphics of the wind field during her morning weather hits. I like that, make people aware that yes, it's going to be rainy but gusty too Looks legit, but being Maryland I fear that Nicole will be working the drive-in Friday night serving the most popular item - nothingburgers! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, Stormfly said: Looks legit, but being Maryland I fear that Nicole will be working the drive-in Friday night serving the most popular item - nothingburgers! oh no. anyway -- I know that after Ian there was a lot of huff about how large the area impacted would be in FL, it's nice to see our local mets adjust to that and communicate the risks better, even if they are a 'nothingburger' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Yes better have some heads up and TBH the effects from Ian up here were more than expected. At least it won't be raw, 35 mph wind gusts at 40F with rain showers goes right through you! This may be similar to Christmas eve 2020. That rain was driving almost tropical like here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 9, 2022 Author Share Posted November 9, 2022 Good timing PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1154 AM EST TUE NOV 8 2022 ...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WSR-88D WEATHER RADAR IN STERLING, VA PLANNED TO RETURN TO SERVICE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING... SINCE NOVEMBER 3, 2022, THE KLWX WSR-88D RADAR, OPERATED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING, VA, HAS BEEN DOWN FOR THE REPLACEMENT OF ITS EMERGENCY GENERATOR, FUEL TANKS, AND ACCOMPANYING COMPONENTS. THIS SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE IS RUNNING AHEAD OF SCHEDULE, AND THE RADAR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SERVICE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. OF COURSE AN ISSUE COULD STILL ARISE TO UNEXPECTEDLY DELAY THIS. THIS MAINTENANCE IS IMPORTANT TO SUPPORT THE RADAR’S OPERATION DURING PERIODS OF COMMERCIAL POWER OUTAGES, INCLUDING WHEN HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS PRESENT OR IN THE VICINITY. THIS GENERATOR UPDATE IS ONE OF FIVE MAJOR PROJECTS OF THE NEXRAD SERVICE LIFE EXTENSION PROGRAM, A SERIES OF UPGRADES AND REPLACEMENTS THAT WILL KEEP OUR NATION’S NETWORK OF RADARS VIABLE INTO THE THE NEXT DECADE. NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE, AND THE FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION ARE INVESTING $150 MILLION IN THE SEVEN YEAR PROGRAM. THE FIRST PROJECT WAS THE INSTALLATION OF THE NEW SIGNAL PROCESSOR AND THE SECOND PROJECT WAS THE TRANSMITTER REFURBISHMENT. THE TWO REMAINING PROJECTS ARE THE REFURBISHMENT OF THE PEDESTAL AND EQUIPMENT SHELTERS. THE SERVICE LIFE EXTENSION PROGRAM WILL COMPLETE IN 2023. DURING THE DOWNTIME, WEATHER RADAR INFORMATION CAN BE GAINED FROM ADJACENT WSR-88D RADARS, INCLUDING: KDIX FT. DIX NJ KDOV DOVER DE KAKQ WAKEFIELD VA KFCX BLACKSBURG VA KRLX CHARLESTON WV KPBZ PITTSBURGH PA ADDITIONALLY, WEATHER RADAR INFORMATION CAN BE GAINED FROM NEARBY FAA TERMINAL WEATHER RADARS (TDWRS) LOCATED AT: TIAD WASHINGTON DULLES TDCA WASHINGTON NATIONAL TBWI BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL TADW JOINT BASE ANDREWS FOR DIRECT ACCESS TO ANY OF THESE SURROUNDING RADAR SITES, GO TO THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE: HTTPS://RADAR.WEATHER.GOV A SINGLE RADAR SITE CAN BE VIEWED BY GOING TO THE “SELECT VIEW” MENU OPTION THEN CLICKING ON “LOCAL RADAR” TO SELECT A SINGLE RADAR SITE. THE KLWX WSR-88D IS PART OF A NETWORK OF 159 OPERATIONAL RADARS. THE RADAR OPERATIONS CENTER IN NORMAN, OKLAHOMA, PROVIDES LIFECYCLE MANAGEMENT AND SUPPORT FOR ALL WSR-88DS. FOR A RADAR MOSAIC LOOP HTTPS://RADAR.WEATHER.GOV THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN STERLING, VA CAN BE FOUND ON SOCIAL MEDIA AT @NWS_BALTWASH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Good grief, didn't they just have major maintenance and downtime in the past year? Bull gear replacement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Hopefully it gets rid of all the leaves remaining on the trees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Bless 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 1 hour ago, notvirga! said: Hopefully it gets rid of all the leaves remaining on the trees Yesterday's breeze did that already here. Even the stubborn pin oaks have shed. Hopefully Sat afternoon is dry enough for a final cleanup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 9, 2022 Author Share Posted November 9, 2022 @high risk 18z NAM soundings have pretty impressive hodos from around 21z FRI to 03z SAT across the region... SBCAPE/MLCAPE are in the 200-400 range... but a little concerned about the TOR threat. SRH, along with low level and deep layer shear are pretty strong Hmmm... 21z FRI at KEZF is just not a good sounding (i.e. definite TOR signal there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 20 minutes ago, yoda said: @high risk 18z NAM soundings have pretty impressive hodos from around 21z FRI to 03z SAT across the region... SBCAPE/MLCAPE are in the 200-400 range... but a little concerned about the TOR threat. SRH, along with low level and deep layer shear are pretty strong Hmmm... 21z FRI at KEZF is just not a good sounding (i.e. definite TOR signal there) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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