TS Nicole Banter Thread

[NeffsvilleWx]

I'm worried that a lot of people here on the Space Coast are going to be majorly unprepared for Nicole.

[Drummer]

I’d really love for this thing to defy the odds and either fizzle out or curve north faster. 
 

currently at WDW until the 13th. Hopefully minimal impacts. Maybe some easement in the crowds and some ponchos.  

[NeffsvilleWx]

9 minutes ago, Drummer said:

I’d really love for this thing to defy the odds and either fizzle out or curve north faster. 
 

currently at WDW until the 13th. Hopefully minimal impacts. Maybe some easement in the crowds and some ponchos.  

You're just missing the Artemis launch!

 

Being a recent transplant, I don't have any experience with WDW and storms. But I hope they stay open and crowd size is reduced for your sake. Crowds are easily the worst part of Disney and I consider myself fortunate that neither of my kids are really into it.

[Prismshine Productions]

My concern is not only is the core starting to tighten, but the healthy pulsating during daytime D-min... D-Max could provide a show if she gets her act together. We have seen tight-core storms defy the models before (looking at you Dorian)

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[AChilders]

I think due to the size of the wind field that the storm surge in NE FL is being underestimated, 4 days of fetch coming onshore through multiple tide cycles during a "Beaver Tide" will push more water up the St Johns than anticipated, I feel it will be as high or higher than Irma in 2017.

[NeffsvilleWx]

Brevard county schools are now closed tomorrow and Thursday.

[NeffsvilleWx]

[NeffsvilleWx]

Fun fact: If this tracks further north than most models show and makes landfall in Brevard, it'll be the first tropical system to do so since Barry in 1983.

 

Lots of fringes, not so many direct hits here.

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

That would be a problem.

[olafminesaw]

I kept wondering why the advisory times are one hour earlier, took me forever to figure out why... Hurricanes after fall back are not the norm apparently 

[Sydney Claridge]

2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

I kept wondering why the advisory times are one hour earlier, took me forever to figure out why... Hurricanes after fall back are not the norm apparently 

I suspect that's because they operate on Zulu/UTC time, which does not change for the switch from daylight savings time to standard time (or vice-versa).

[yoda]

There's not enough lulz for this post

8 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

This is gonna be such a good day to be a hurricane meteorologist in Southeast Florida. We’re already getting one intense band after the next, and the hurricane will be rapidly getting closer and stronger as the day progresses.

I think Cat 3 landfall is quite likely. Conditions are extremely favorable and it will go insane over the Gulf Stream. It could also directly hit the densely populated Southeast Florida metro area. It might even track as far south as Miami. 
 

This is not a minimal hurricane situation at all. This is an extremely powerful hurricane in the making.

 

[Hotair]

Many friends and family in Ft lauderdale and North to West Palm Beach.  Not a Single one is taking this storm seriously. Like zero. I hope it’s because they have extra supplies from Ian but I y family there boarded up for Ian and they are not planning to board up for this.

 

 Keeping it at TS intensity < 48 to landfall has a lot to do with the thinking that it won’t get dangerous in time 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 hours ago, yoda said:

There's not enough lulz for this post

 

Exactly, If It was September different story. The broad nature of the system means slow strengthening at best. This is a cat 1. Tops 

[w1pf]

Here in roughly Aberdeen FL (PBC) I have things buttoned up and the generator is ready...

but even the most orgasmic TV mets are only talking about 40MPH gusts.

[Hoosier]

I've said it before, but it is virtually impossible to make it through any landfalling US hurricane discussion without Sandy being mentioned at some point.

[Windspeed]

[Prospero]

I've been through dozens of Tropical Storms and a few Hurricanes here in Florida, even into December. This is the first where it is chilly outside with drizzle! Yea, we have some wind, but the warm soupy tropical fuel is missing. I feel like I should wake up to some snow on the ground tomorrow...

[Floydbuster]

This is a rare event. I believe Nicole will be one of only three November hurricanes to strike Florida in 100 years.

[Normandy]

any good radar sites

[NeffsvilleWx]

8 hours ago, Normandy said:

any good radar sites

Not free, but GrLevel3 ($89.99) for PC and Radarscope ($9.99) for mobile are pretty much cream-of-the-crop when it comes to radar data.

[Windspeed]

Not free, but GrLevel3 ($89.99) for PC and Radarscope ($9.99) for mobile are pretty much cream-of-the-crop when it comes to radar data.

I think you can get a package for Radarscope for your Windows or Apple PC and your mobile platforms (Android or Apple OS).

[Normandy]

Appreciate yall

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I know the pressure was lower than a usual Cat 1, but the Space Coast has a problem if a Cat 1 can cause that much surge.

[Normandy]

Its not as simple as a Cat 1 can cause this much surge.  This was not an ordinary Category 1 storm.  it was extremely large, and on top of that was interacting with a very strong high pressure system.  Those two elements created a strong pressure gradient that delivered a 200 mile swatch of NW 50-60 MPH winds that drove insane amounts of water into the FL coast.  A similar Cat 1 storm (Katrina) was in a similar situation and evolved much differently as a storm with respect to storm surge.  There have been several hurricanes that have greatly overperformed their storm surge values due to extreme large fetch of winds (Ike, Nicole, Sandy, etc).