forkyfork Posted November 9, 2022 Author Share Posted November 9, 2022 i would also watch out for a sting jet behind the cold front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 This will be a complex interaction and I don't think one should take 48-72h guidance with its usual reasonable precision either. Once this makes the turn and seeks out the oncoming Colorado low, all bets are off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Even at the time{for Southern B'lyn} of greatest probability of exceeding 39mph, the Probability here is 0%. Gusts could briefly be near 50mph off shore. We get about 1" of rain. The T at this time, say 4am, is near 70!. Th, F, Sat could average +7 together. Nicole crosses east coast of Florida shortly--near 27.5N. Strongest winds are to the north of this. 20 hours later it will cross the Florida Panhandle area near 85W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Looks like we missed out on the wind aspect of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Yawning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said: Looks like we missed out on the wind aspect of this storm. I think nyc east will do ok with winds we’ll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 our local police department put out this advisory 11 NOV 2022 Late Friday into early Saturday morning we are expecting a Tropical Storm with heavy rainfall, isolated thunderstorms, and strong winds. Secure any outdoor furniture to prevent physical damage or harm. Please report and avoid any flooded areas, down powerlines and trees. Any immediate emergencies please dial 9-1-1, all other calls dial the non-emergency line at (908)-753-3112. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 PWAT's approach 2" tonight on nose of strengthening LLJ. Good chance that some of these waves of showers and embedded storms will overperform, especially if any convection can get going. Cannot rule out a few waterspouts moving onshore either, especially on the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 rain has started here, gunna be a fun ride to work later on with clogged storm drains everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: our local police department put out this advisory 11 NOV 2022 Late Friday into early Saturday morning we are expecting a Tropical Storm with heavy rainfall, isolated thunderstorms, and strong winds. Secure any outdoor furniture to prevent physical damage or harm. Please report and avoid any flooded areas, down powerlines and trees. Any immediate emergencies please dial 9-1-1, all other calls dial the non-emergency line at (908)-753-3112. I got a similar email from Optimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 11, 2022 Author Share Posted November 11, 2022 not bad 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 The dynamics for the wind gust potential don't look all that severe now, but the dry slot to the west may force this oncoming frontal rain to max out over the NYC region, further west, lower totals until central PA with the heavier rain from the dying tropical depression over w PA and upstate NY towards BGM and BTV. Could be some locations in n NJ that get essentially dry slotted until the cold front arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 11, 2022 Author Share Posted November 11, 2022 whenever we get a west trend and it's not a miller b capture the trend almost never stops 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Heavy heavy rain, hopefully winds over preform as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Upton: "Thus there is a concern as these environmental parameters max out late in the night and into early Saturday morning that a fine line of convection develops as the front and max forcing coincides with the anomalous moisture rich environment. The potential is there for lower top convection with a struggle to get higher instability this time of year, with the low top convection possibly triggering a very short round of severe weather. There is some backing of the lowest wind in the column. Thus, a spin up with higher speed shear and some directional shear in the lowest 2 km, and especially 1 km remains a concern for some short lived, but intense convection approaching Saturday morning. With more of an isothermal profile in the column, the concern is that with the front approaching mixing extends lower down in the column resulting in strong to damaging wind gusts along the boundary." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Wow big uptick in winds right along the water now must’ve heard me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 12 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Heavy heavy rain, hopefully winds over preform as well Yep windy here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Getting windy here, heavy rain. On the day . 68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Looks like we'll be able to salvage a nice warm and muggy Friday night despite a shower/storm here and there Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scootmandu Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Rain has been consistently gaining in intensity over the last hour. Currently at .52" and the latest rate at .61"/hr. Temp/DP 67.1/66.7 and both rising. Top recent gust, SE at 12.5 nph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 1.15 inches with the initial bands of rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Enjoy another warm Friday night Hopefully we get some strong storms in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 1.24 inches of rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Wind is starting to kick up a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 12, 2022 Author Share Posted November 12, 2022 newark just tied the all time nov dewpoint record of 68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: newark just tied the all time nov dewpoint record of 78 It's very muggy but not 78 muggy Its awesome out here. Enjoy forky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpsnavigator Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 I think he means 68 Morristown is currently showing 73 temp, 73 DP. If true, that is incredible for November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, gpsnavigator said: I think he means 68 Morristown is currently showing 73 temp, 73 DP. If true, that is incredible for November. Morristown's been funky lately so that's probably wrong though it's only slightly above surrounding stations 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Rain stopped a while ago with under an inch. Models not very enthusiastic for later tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 1.5" here so far. Not bad at all. Had some bursts of heavy downpours throughout the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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