Tatamy Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 How does the power grid do out there with run of the mill wind gusts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 20 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: 60mph is right on the cusp of causing issues on the south shore. It’s really when you get Above 70mph. There are so few trees left. I think this ends up being more run of the mill 40/50mph gusts type deal. Alot of the leaves are gone as well which will help the case too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Alot of the leaves are gone as well which will help the case too Not down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Where I lived in Lindenhurst you would probably need gusts approaching 80 mph to get widespread power outages (Sandy, Isaias, a couple of severe t-storms a few years back). While there are still a decent amount of tree’s left, the mass majority of weaker trees that would cause issues at lower wind speeds are gone now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Not down here Not here All the leaves are near the drains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: 60mph is right on the cusp of causing issues on the south shore. It’s really when you get Above 70mph. There are so few trees left. I think this ends up being more run of the mill 40/50mph gusts type deal. How many dead trees are around from the summer drought though? I do agree that it looks like a run of the mill windy/showery event for most of us. The heavy rain will mostly be over PA and maybe W NJ. If anything models keep going west with the low track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Alot of foilage still left on the trees here. I'm not worried so much about the wind (backup generator in place) as I am about the possible flooding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 bye bye leaves after this storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Supposed to fly out to Vegas Friday afternoon. Oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Supposed to fly out to Vegas Friday afternoon. Oh well should be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Gfs continues to trend west 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Gfs continues to trend west At this point I wouldn’t expect more than showery weather for most of us and gusty winds to 50 mph or so. On the east side of these storms some might just have a shower or two and that’s it. Maybe we can luck out and we get a squall line in the instability as the strong cold front passes by. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 The more west solutions means it's phasing with the front instead of getting kicked by it. I actually prefer it over plain rain. At least we might get some severe weather & strong gusts out of it. GFS has also been trending with developing a quick coastal on Sunday with leftover baroclinic energy and a tilting trough. If it were just a couple weeks later I'd think we might get some snow out of it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 All we need to mess with the power here is ~30mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: At this point I wouldn’t expect more than showery weather for most of us and gusty winds to 50 mph or so. On the east side of these storms some might just have a shower or two and that’s it. Maybe we can luck out and we get a squall line in the instability as the strong cold front passes by. rather be on east side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: rather be on east side At this rate it's going to Cleveland and we might not get anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: At this rate it's going to Cleveland and we might not get anything It’s phasing into a deep trough and it’ll be a strong cold front passing through so hopefully it does get interesting beyond a windy day for a while. Could be some good T-storm activity ahead of the front, but it could just be the windy/showery day too. We’ll just have to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The more west solutions means it's phasing with the front instead of getting kicked by it. I actually prefer it over plain rain. At least we might get some severe weather & strong gusts out of it. GFS has also been trending with developing a quick coastal on Sunday with leftover baroclinic energy and a tilting trough. If it were just a couple weeks later I'd think we might get some snow out of it. The timing of this is friday night overnight though. So if we do get any strong t-storms out of it, it will likely be when we're sleeping. This west trend also means we probably won't get big rains. Right now it doesn't appear that this is much to look forward to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 not sure why ppl want to be on the west side with stratiform rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Gfs continues to trend west good for the reservoirs in upstate ny... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 6 hours ago, jm1220 said: How many dead trees are around from the summer drought though? I do agree that it looks like a run of the mill windy/showery event for most of us. The heavy rain will mostly be over PA and maybe W NJ. If anything models keep going west with the low track. The dead trees will not be an issue for a couple years until they start to rot. We actually need the rain again. The growing season is still in full swing here on the uws and I have plants dying do to lack of water again but can’t bring myself to water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Might not get much rain from this after all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 so showers and a light breeze? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 51 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: so showers and a light breeze? Yeah it's not looking very impressive. We still could get a decent rain out of this ... perhaps a half inch to inch. But nothing to write home about. The big amounts will be way to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 18 hours ago, Allsnow said: Might not get much rain from this after all The east side of these systems always underperform on rain at this latitude. Best we can hope for IMO is a line of T-storms to come through with the front, that seems to be what much of our rain is on the models. But if that doesn't materialize some of us may see only a few brief showers. Isaias/Fay/Ida etc had very little rain east of the track. As bad as Sandy was, I think LI had under an inch of rain when predictions were for 3-6". The east side does often overperform on the wind but it doesn't look to be at a level that would be worse than a nuisance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Gfs has trended wetter for Friday afternoon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Gfs has trended wetter for Friday afternoon NAM and Euro aren't showing as much as GFS, but still a decent amount of rain. Like I said a half inch to inch looks like a good forecast right now. Also right now the models are showing most of our rain coming from the first batch friday afternoon. They're not really showing a line of strong storms with the front friday night overnight anymore. Overall looking like a boring event, but at least a moderate amount of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 I think winds will be quite strong Friday, moreso than models are showing. We should break through the inversion with highs near 70F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 9, 2022 Author Share Posted November 9, 2022 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: I think winds will be quite strong Friday, moreso than models are showing. We should break through the inversion with highs near 70F i'm always wary of the east side of these systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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