forkyfork Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 this looks like the most interesting wx in months. the euro shows us getting the strong side of the system while it phases with the northern jet 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 7, 2022 Author Share Posted November 7, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 7, 2022 Author Share Posted November 7, 2022 second peak in intensity after transition 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 7, 2022 Author Share Posted November 7, 2022 the stronger solutions over eastern pa would likely cause power outages 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 7 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the stronger solutions over eastern pa would likely cause power outages Which would you prefer, a more eastern or western track. Western track gives us more wind, east more rain. And what do you think is more likely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 it might rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: Certainly has my attention. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 In 1861, Hurricane 6 moved up the east coast Nov 1-3 and brought higher tidal levels for New York harbor than for many years previous, and did other damage in the region up to and including Boston. I have no source of rainfall for New York City that far back, but Toronto had a large amount of rain Nov 1-2 (over 3 inches) indicating that this hurricane must have phased with a GL low in the vicinity of upstate NY. This storm is also known as the Expedition Hurricane because of its impact on a Civil War battle further south. Another possible concept to keep in mind is the explosive deepening of the Nov 9-10 1913 storm which moved from Georgia to southern Ontario and created the hurricane force northerly winds that caused a shipping disaster on Lakes Huron and Erie (mostly Huron), the storm being labelled the White Hurricane at the time as blizzard conditions developed on its western flank. It was quite warm on the east coast and even as far inland as Toronto during the approach of this rapidly deepening low (somewhat analogous to the Jan 1978 storm over the GL). 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Forky posts, only adds to the intrigue 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 My hope would be for the eastern track-more rain area wide which we still need and less wind. I tend to think the west track is more likely which means more rain in PA/NJ and 60+ mph wind for NYC and east, which has also been the most common the last few years with these tropical/transitioning systems. If the Euro insists on it that much and now the GFS is trending to it, it’s likely more right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpsnavigator Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Can we take a pass on this one? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 At least it won't be isaias bad if a western track verifies. I don't think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Still lots of questions regarding intensity, phasing, etc. Will be interesting to see if this blows up before hitting FL. A stronger system there will mean a stronger one up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Still lots of questions regarding intensity, phasing, etc. Will be interesting to see if this blows up before hitting FL. A stronger system there will mean a stronger one up here. I think your idea of a more phased (west) system is correct. We will proabably need another 48 hours to resolve any questions that remain regarding track, intensity etc. But decent potential for a very heavy rain/wind event in the metro region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 10 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I think your idea of a more phased (west) system is correct. We will proabably need another 48 hours to resolve any questions that remain regarding track, intensity etc. But decent potential for a very heavy rain/wind event in the metro region. It's becoming likely there will be a PRE on Fri as well before what's left of Nicole makes it here. That looks to be well west of us. Looking like it's becoming the usual PA/NJ soaker and NYC east showery/windy with these systems. At least we have something interesting happening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Western track would also give us the threat of tornadoes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 0z GFS is into eastern PA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Nice hodo. Gonna have to watch the tor potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 3 hours ago, jm1220 said: My hope would be for the eastern track-more rain area wide which we still need and less wind. I tend to think the west track is more likely which means more rain in PA/NJ and 60+ mph wind for NYC and east, which has also been the most common the last few years with these tropical/transitioning systems. If the Euro insists on it that much and now the GFS is trending to it, it’s likely more right. we'll all get at least an inch or two of rain regardless of the track though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 38 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said: Nice hodo. Gonna have to watch the tor potential Tons of shear and very low cloud base, but nil instability. 4 days out, of course. Wouldn't need much instability. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Models shifting west with the rain Heaviest rain looks to be interior areas of PA, NY and New England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Much more interesting if the storm is west of us for real impacts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 More and more it looks like an inland route for Nicole. Could be an interesting Saturday in our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 22 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Much more interesting if the storm is west of us for real impacts It's looking like that Wind and T storms ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Both the 0Z GFS and the 0Z ECMWF are calling for widespread damaging wind gusts up to 50 MPH across the area (includes many inland areas and coastal areas) with the passage of Nicole and the phasing with the Polar jet. Timing on this would be Friday night and Saturday morning for worst impacts. Places along the coast could see gusts closer to 60 mph with the Euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Looks like most of the pre will be to our west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 13 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Both the 0Z GFS and the 0Z ECMWF are calling for widespread damaging wind gusts up to 50 MPH across the area (includes many inland areas and coastal areas) with the passage of Nicole and the phasing with the Polar jet. Timing on this would be Friday night and Saturday morning for worst impacts. Places along the coast could see gusts closer to 60 mph with the Euro solution. 60mph is right on the cusp of causing issues on the south shore. It’s really when you get Above 70mph. There are so few trees left. I think this ends up being more run of the mill 40/50mph gusts type deal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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