Tallis Rockwell Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 Spring-like conditions are shaping over Central and NE Texas, this friday: conditional but substantial tornado risk. 19z Update... Confidence has increased that the large-scale upper trough will eject eastward faster than previous forecast guidance suggested. As the upper trough is forecast to continue to intensify, increasingly robust low and mid-level wind fields are expected to overspread a destabilizing warm sector across much of central and northeast TX. The northeastern extent of the larger buoyancy is still somewhat uncertain, but strong forcing for ascent will likely support numerous thunderstorms with a risk for damaging wind gusts across portions of eastern OK, western AR and far southern MO. Confidence is highest that a strongly forced QLCS will move eastward near the cold front from early afternoon, and towards the Mississippi River Valley overnight. A 50+ kt low-level jet and large looping hodographs will favor damaging wind/mesovortex potential with the QLCS. The tornado threat remains less certain and is tied to the conditional risk for warm sector supercells ahead of the line, along with the magnitude of destabilization, and open warm-sector forcing. However, large 0-1km SRH (250+ m2/s2) and the potential for supercells does suggest a conditional risk for tornadoes (possibly significant). An Enhanced risk for mainly strong damaging wind gusts has been added for storms late Friday through early Saturday morning. The Slight Risk has also been expanded east for greater severe potential through the overnight hours with the QLCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 The new Day-2 outlook has 10% hatched tornado probabilities and 30% wind probabilities including the region of Dallas to the Red River, Texarkana. Quote DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT THU NOV 03 2022 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ..SUMMARY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX. SCATTERED DAMAGING GUSTS, HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 Still some uncertainties to work out with timing and storm mode. The NAM and other Hi-Res models are a lot slower and more ominous-looking for North Texas and Southern Oklahoma Friday evening, whereas the global models shift the better threat (less ominous) into E. Texas pretty quickly Friday afternoon. I tend to think the more progressive / less ominous outcome will win out, especially with the help of mesoscale influences such as storm outfllows from morning activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 HRRR updraft helicity tracks up to 08z Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 82F/DP 71 in Houston. Rained during work, puddles in the parking lot. If that is already here, April style airmass into the DFW Metroplex seems a done deal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 2 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: 82F/DP 71 in Houston. Rained during work, puddles in the parking lot. If that is already here, April style airmass into the DFW Metroplex seems a done deal. Already have dews in the mid/upper 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 I can definitely see the elevated threat for NE Texas (for both damaging winds and tornadoes). As for DFW, I'm still really not sure what to make of it... Seems very dependent on where the storms begin to form. A difference of 50 miles east or west could make or break the event for the metroplex. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 Here is the HRRR model (00z) with the SCP with radar overlay for late afternoon tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 Already getting a bit of rain by the airport. Maybe will tamp down on later activity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 12 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Already getting a bit of rain by the airport. Maybe will tamp down on later activity? I don't think so. This event will be almost entirely driven by good jet dynamics despite less than ideal thermodynamics. If anything, FWD's discussion from yesterday mentioned those streamer showers (like the one you're getting now) would have to be watch for growth into discrete supercells over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 FWD did a 15Z balloon. Not on SPC site yet. 18Z on an enhanced day is almost normal, 15Z, someone is concerned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: FWD did a 15Z balloon. Not on SPC site yet. 18Z on an enhanced day is almost normal, 15Z, someone is concerned. SPC mesoanalysis gives a good hint of what things look like, and it is definitely a bit ominous. Sill some residual capping, but it's eroding rapidly. In fact, an argument could be made the risk areas should be expanded a bit further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 MOD risk added for a good chunk of the ArkLaTex and far southeast OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cincy.wx Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 Mesoscale Discussion 1917 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022 Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma across north-central and northeastern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 041628Z - 041730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Potential for severe/supercell storms is expected to gradually increase into the afternoon. All-hazards severe risk is expected, including likelihood for for significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and large hail. A tornado watch will likely be required by early afternoon. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows convection increasing in coverage/intensity along an advancing cold front now stretching from southeastern Kansas across central and southwestern Oklahoma and into western North Texas. Ahead of the front/frontal convection, a moistening boundary layer is indicated, with mid 60s dewpoints into southeastern Oklahoma and low 70s dewpoints now spreading toward the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. The low-level moistening is occurring beneath a rather substantial capping inversion, revealed by the recent 15Z FWD RAOB, and which extends across the warm sector as suggested by the character of the low cloudiness as revealed by recent visible satellite imagery. This cloudiness will continue to retard heating, and thus low-level destabilization, over the next several of hours, but cooling aloft -- associated with the advancing upper system -- will allow gradual airmass destabilization, particularly above 700mb. Weak warm-advection-induced showery convection indicated across the warm sector continues to gradually increase, with some small/higher reflectivity cores beginning to become apparent. Expect a gradual ramp-up in this convection to continue -- with eventual growth into cellular/lightning-producing cells as cooling aloft continues within the capping layer and above. Once deep convection becomes established, rapid intensification to severe levels is expected, as very favorable shear -- provided by low-level southerly flow veering to south-southwesterly and increasing to 50 kt at around 1km along with additional veering above -- resides across the warm sector. Risk for strong/significant tornadoes will then ensue, as storms acquire strong rotation. Large hail and locally damaging winds are also expected. Risk for damaging winds will likely increase later this afternoon and beyond, as convection strengthens linearly along the front with time, likely merging gradually with pre-frontal cellular convection to evolve into a well-developed squall line by early evening. This anticipated evolution will likely require tornado watch issuance within the next hour or two, extending eastward across southeastern Oklahoma and North Texas toward the Arklatex region. ..Goss/Hart.. 11/04/2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 That cell over Lake Ray Roberts seems to have lightning with it now. Might be one to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 first thunder/heavy rain of the day at Denton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 Looking messy early on, maybe things clean up further we get into event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 I think I just heard thunder, although out earlier everything looked under the cap and radar still doesn't show more than streamer showers in Houston area. Walked into a stiff S wind with light rain just over an hour ago. We are getting breaks of sun, 80F/74F, not sure that reaches DFW before the storms, but gusting to 31 mph, which is probably about what LLJ is, that will make East Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 Tor watch including the metroplex. 70/50 probs SEL0 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 560 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 100 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Arkansas Eastern and Southern Oklahoma North Central and Northeast Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon, with scattered severe storms expected. Strong winds aloft and a moist environment will pose a risk of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of Fayetteville AR to 25 miles east of Temple TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 And already we have a severe t-storm warning Severe Thunderstorm Warning TXC181-041900- /O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0231.221104T1805Z-221104T1900Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 105 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Grayson County in north central Texas... * Until 200 PM CDT. * At 104 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Lake Texoma to near Pilot Point, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Sherman, Whitesboro, Denison, Van Alstyne, Howe, Pottsboro, Collinsville, Whitewright, Gunter, Bells, Tom Bean, Knollwood, Dorchester, Randell Lake, Eisenhower State Park, Valley Lake, Lake Texoma, Preston, Southmayd and Tioga. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for north central Texas. For your protection get inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3389 9663 3389 9658 3385 9663 3384 9662 3382 9658 3382 9653 3377 9650 3376 9641 3374 9639 3347 9639 3341 9685 3342 9694 3389 9691 3385 9686 3387 9683 3387 9680 3382 9676 3384 9669 3392 9666 TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 212DEG 31KT 3380 9680 3344 9690 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH $$ Gordon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 ... and now first tor warning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, cheese007 said: And already we have a severe t-storm warning Severe Thunderstorm Warning TXC181-041900- /O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0231.221104T1805Z-221104T1900Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 105 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Grayson County in north central Texas... * Until 200 PM CDT. * At 104 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Lake Texoma to near Pilot Point, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Sherman, Whitesboro, Denison, Van Alstyne, Howe, Pottsboro, Collinsville, Whitewright, Gunter, Bells, Tom Bean, Knollwood, Dorchester, Randell Lake, Eisenhower State Park, Valley Lake, Lake Texoma, Preston, Southmayd and Tioga. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for north central Texas. For your protection get inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3389 9663 3389 9658 3385 9663 3384 9662 3382 9658 3382 9653 3377 9650 3376 9641 3374 9639 3347 9639 3341 9685 3342 9694 3389 9691 3385 9686 3387 9683 3387 9680 3382 9676 3384 9669 3392 9666 TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 212DEG 31KT 3380 9680 3344 9690 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH $$ Gordon Tornado Warning OKC013-041900- /O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0056.221104T1808Z-221104T1900Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Norman OK 108 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Bryan County in southeastern Oklahoma... * Until 200 PM CDT. * At 108 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Sherman, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Durant, Colbert, Achille, Kemp, Hendrix, Cartwright, Blue, Utica, eastern Lake Texoma and Calera. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter, safe room or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3372 9637 3378 9643 3377 9650 3382 9653 3382 9658 3384 9662 3403 9645 3403 9621 3375 9621 3377 9629 3375 9631 3370 9632 3369 9636 TIME...MOT...LOC 1808Z 226DEG 28KT 3362 9668 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN $$ Mahale 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 NWS Amarillo tweeted, 35F with mixed rain and snow. HOU is 84F. That is a temperature gradient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 Johnson County (heading toward Tarrant) cell starting to look interesting. Anyone with GR super radar? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Johnson County (heading toward Tarrant) cell starting to look interesting. Anyone with GR super radar? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 17 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Johnson County (heading toward Tarrant) cell starting to look interesting. Anyone with GR super radar? We have a radar in Cleburne and got a really close look... Decent storm scale rotation within the line indicative of small hail and reports of such have followed. But not much in the way of notable wind signatures close to the ground. My eyes are currently on E Arlington/Grand Prairie where the strengthening line is starting to interact with moisture streaming north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 I have GRLevel2 Analyst 3.0 and the Tarrant storm doesn't yet look dangerous, as per a producing tornado issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 However, that storm looks to be splitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 No split, the structure is improving as it heads northeast from Carrollton to Plano Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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