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Hurricane Nicole


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Current satellite image reminds me of an eagle attacking a school of tuna, all that's needed is a bun and some mayo. 

Anyone else getting the sense that Nicole may not really make a landfall in FL but may just graze the east coast of the state and move towards coastal GA? 

http://www.weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_eusa_1070_100.jpg

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12 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Current satellite image reminds me of an eagle attacking a school of tuna, all that's needed is a bun and some mayo. 

Anyone else getting the sense that Nicole may not really make a landfall in FL but may just graze the east coast of the state and move towards coastal GA? 

http://www.weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_eusa_1070_100.jpg

No chance. High pressure way too strong 

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Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022
1000 PM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

Nicole's satellite appearance has changed little since this
afternoon.  Deep convection is not very strong near the center of
the cyclone at this time, and there appears to be some dry air
intrusions into the circulation as evidenced by water vapor 
imagery.  Nonetheless, wind and central pressure observations from 
NOAA and Air Force Hurricane aircraft indicate that the system is 
very close to hurricane strength and the current advisory intensity 
is set to 60 kt.

Center fixes indicate that the cyclone is moving
west-southwestward, or about 250/9 kt  The track forecast
philosophy is basically the same as in the previous advisory
package.  Nicole should move west-southwestward to westward, on the
south side of an eastward-moving high pressure area, for the next 24
hours.  Thereafter, the system should turn northwestward and then
northward along the western side of the high.  In 3-5 days, Nicole
is likely to accelerate northeastward over the eastern United
States, to the east of a large mid-level trough.  The track model
guidance has not changed significantly, nor has the official
forecast.  This is near the southern edge of the guidance suite for
the next 1-2 days, and roughly in the middle of the guidance
thereafter.

Nicole will be moving over fairly warm SSTs of 27-28 degrees
Celsius during the next day or so.  However, the SHIPS guidance
indicates that the vertical shear will be 25 kt or higher, with
low-to mid-tropospheric humidities on the order of 50 percent,
during the next 24 hours.  Nicole is likely to become a hurricane
soon but, given the marginal dynamic and thermodynamic environment, 
significant strengthening seems unlikely.  The official intensity 
forecast is near or above the available model guidance, and closely 
follows the decay-SHIPS model after landfall.  Weakening is expected 
after Nicole moves inland over Florida and Georgia and while it
accelerates northeastward over the southeastern United States.  The
cyclone should complete extratropical transition by 72 hours and
merge with another extratropical low near Atlantic Canada in 120
hours.
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 0Z UKMET continued the south trend on landfall and does so at Ft. Pierce vs Vero Beach on the 18Z:

 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE     ANALYSED POSITION : 27.3N  74.6W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 09.11.2022    0  27.3N  74.6W      991            46
    1200UTC 09.11.2022   12  26.9N  76.4W      990            45
    0000UTC 10.11.2022   24  26.9N  79.2W      987            47
    1200UTC 10.11.2022   36  28.5N  82.0W      989            39
    0000UTC 11.11.2022   48  30.1N  84.6W      992            33
    1200UTC 11.11.2022   60  32.8N  84.6W      998            25
    0000UTC 12.11.2022   72  39.5N  81.2W      994            20
    1200UTC 12.11.2022   84  45.7N  73.4W      985            33
    0000UTC 13.11.2022   96  48.6N  61.0W      987            44
    1200UTC 13.11.2022  108              CEASED TRACKING

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This is gonna be such a good day to be a hurricane meteorologist in Southeast Florida. We’re already getting one intense band after the next, and the hurricane will be rapidly getting closer and stronger as the day progresses.

I think Cat 3 landfall is quite likely. Conditions are extremely favorable and it will go insane over the Gulf Stream. It could also directly hit the densely populated Southeast Florida metro area. It might even track as far south as Miami. 
 

This is not a minimal hurricane situation at all. This is an extremely powerful hurricane in the making.

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34 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

This is gonna be such a good day to be a hurricane meteorologist in Southeast Florida. We’re already getting one intense band after the next, and the hurricane will be rapidly getting closer and stronger as the day progresses.

I think Cat 3 landfall is quite likely. Conditions are extremely favorable and it will go insane over the Gulf Stream. It could also directly hit the densely populated Southeast Florida metro area. It might even track as far south as Miami. 
 

This is not a minimal hurricane situation at all. This is an extremely powerful hurricane in the making.

Better let the NHC know then since their latest disco says barely any strengthening 

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2 hours ago, turtlehurricane said:

This is gonna be such a good day to be a hurricane meteorologist in Southeast Florida. We’re already getting one intense band after the next, and the hurricane will be rapidly getting closer and stronger as the day progresses.

I think Cat 3 landfall is quite likely. Conditions are extremely favorable and it will go insane over the Gulf Stream. It could also directly hit the densely populated Southeast Florida metro area. It might even track as far south as Miami. 
 

This is not a minimal hurricane situation at all. This is an extremely powerful hurricane in the making.

Seriously? Cat 3 is likely? I’m not seeing it, but your the pro I guess. 

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48 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Seriously? Cat 3 is likely? I’m not seeing it, but your the pro I guess. 

While I agree I don’t see CAT 3 on this; the Gulf Stream here is only 1-10 miles off shore  from West Palm to Ft Pierce so I can see it strengthen to possibly a CAT 2

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4 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

While I agree I don’t see CAT 3 on this; the Gulf Stream here is only 1-10 miles off shore  from West Palm to Ft Pierce so I can see it strengthen to possibly a CAT 2

The gulf stream isn't really any warmer than the water Nicole is currently traversing. The warmest waters it will cross will be just before reaching the Bahamas 

cdas-sflux_sst_watl_1 (1).png

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