Hurricane Nicole

[olafminesaw]

36 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

A little temperature increase when going over the center, maybe an attempt to form an inner core despite the mid satellite presentation.


.

The HWRF doesn't begin to build a tropic core until this evening. I presume this will occur once Nicole begins to turn back to the south over warmer water, as long as dry air doesn't inhibit development 

[TPAwx]

992mb @ 7am EST

Good to see the updated track staying well north of Ft Myers area and TB

[olafminesaw]

Certainly a tight core

[Prismshine Productions]

Certainly a tight core

It is these tight spinners that need to be watched the most

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[jbenedet]

Nicole looks a lot healthier than I expected at this hour. Guidance is going to have to ramp up the intensity forecasts today to regain reality.

 

 

[BrianGFlores]

So I'm guessing my Thursday morning flight to MIA will probably be canceled? 

[ROOSTA]

GOES-EAST MESO1 PSeUdo-Color LOOP (psu.edu)

One-minute close-up animation.
Getting its act together! Not good.
Depending on how strong Nicole gets, being so big to begin with...
Can the inner core stay intact longer after LF being so insulated? Bueller?
Any case studies or examples.

[SnoSki14]

36 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Nicole looks a lot healthier than I expected at this hour. Guidance is going to have to ramp up the intensity forecasts today to regain reality.

 

 

 

Wind shear is unusually low for the region in November.

Will soon dip SW over warmer waters too. 

[yoda]

None of the 12z models have Nicole reaching hurricane status 

[3dcg]

16 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

GOES-EAST MESO1 PSeUdo-Color LOOP (psu.edu)

One-minute close-up animation.
Getting its act together! Not good.
Depending on how strong Nicole gets, being so big to begin with...
Can the inner core stay intact longer after LF being so insulated? Bueller?
Any case studies or examples.

What are those "waves" spinning west from the main cluster? Wild looking...

[Floydbuster]

14 hours ago, Torchageddon said:

I wish I had archived that Unisys track database fully as only the front page had been crawled to Wayback and 1 other before they turfed it along with some maps. I noticed that Yankee and Kate hurricanes are in that Unisys track map format which was always my favorite. I did locate them on different random sites but was there another source of more? Other formats are so unappealing I'd rather just have the software myself.

I found them on google images. Trust me, I'm the exact same way. I used to spend hours and hours going through those Unisys tracks. I miss them.

[Boston Bulldog]

Fully tropical now according to NHC

[GaWx]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022
1000 AM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 72.7W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM NE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Boca Raton to the
Flagler/Volusia County Line.  A Hurricane Watch has been issued from
the Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach.  A Tropical
Storm Watch has been issued from Altamaha Sound to the Savannah
River.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Altamaha Sound Georgia to
the Savannah River and from Anclote River Florida to Suwannee River
Florida.

-------------------------------
 

 

Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022
1000 AM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

Deep convection has developed and persisted near the center of
Nicole this morning and while there are still some characteristics
of a subtropical cyclone, the smaller radius of maximum winds and
improving inner-core convection suggest it has made the transition
to a tropical cyclone.  A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft has reported
that the pressure has fallen to around 992 mb, and has found 
700-mb flight-level winds of 54 kt and believable SFMR winds of 
40-42 kt. Based on those data, the initial intensity was raised to 
45 kt at 1200 UTC, and is kept there for this advisory.

The anticipated westward turn appears to have occurred, and the
initial motion estimate is 280/8 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge
over the southeastern United States is expected to steer the storm
westward to west-southwestward during the next 24 to 36 hours.
This motion will bring the center of Nicole near the northwest 
Bahamas on Wednesday.  After that time, the ridge is forecast to 
shift eastward allowing Nicole to turn west-northwestward to
northwestward, as it approaches the east coast of Florida.
By 72 hours, Nicole is forecast to recurve over the southeastern
United States ahead of a mid-latitude trough.  Although there is 
good agreement on this overall scenario, there is some increased 
spread in the track guidance on exactly when Nicole makes the 
west-northwestward turn near the east coast of Florida.  The 
typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models are along the southern side 
of the guidance envelope, while the regional hurricane models (HWRF 
and HMON) are on the northern side.  Since the storm is likely near 
the apex of its most northern point, it is worth noting the the 
model trackers are noticeable north of the raw model fields.  In 
fact, the GFS tracker is about 45-50 n mi north of its raw fields.  
The NHC track is very close to the previous forecast, which is 
along the southern side of dynamical model trackers and is closest 
to the GFS ensemble mean. Until the guidance stabilizes, it is 
prudent not to make any significant changes.

Nicole will be traversing relatively warm SSTs of 27-28 degrees 
Celsius and upper-level conditions that are expected to allow for 
steady strengthening during the approach to the northwestern
Bahamas and the east coast of Florida.  The NHC forecast calls for
Nicole to become a hurricane when it is near the northwest Bahamas
and remain a hurricane when it reaches Florida.  The NHC
intensity forecast is close to the various intensity consensus
aids.  Weakening is expected after Nicole moves inland over Florida
and while it accelerates northeastward over the southeastern United 
States.  Although the system could still produce 
tropical-storm-force winds over the adjacent offshore waters.  
Nicole should be extratropical by late Friday, and most of the 
global models show the circulation dissipating between days 4 and 5.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in 
portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday, where a Hurricane 
Warning is in effect.

2.  Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast 
of southeast and east-central Florida beginning late Wednesday or 
Wednesday night, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued.  
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning 
areas in Florida and Georgia beginning early Wednesday.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast 
of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia where a Storm Surge 
Warning is in effect.  The storm surge will be accompanied by large 
and damaging waves.  Residents in the warning area should listen to 
advice given by local officials.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to 
be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the 
center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards are likely to 
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast 
United States.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday across 
the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be likely with 
possible river rises on the St. Johns River. Flash, urban and small 
stream flooding will be possible in Southeast Georgia and portions 
of South Carolina Thursday into Thursday night. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 27.8N  72.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 27.3N  74.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 26.8N  76.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 27.0N  78.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 28.1N  80.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 60H  11/0000Z 30.0N  83.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 72H  11/1200Z 32.7N  82.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  12/1200Z 41.7N  73.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

That burst last night did it. We’ll see if it can organize at a faster pace now that it’s tropical. Still need to build a stronger inner core.

[NeffsvilleWx]

Banter thread: 

 

[Floydbuster]

11am video for those interested https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTYA6J2897s

 

[GaWx]

12Z GFS and ICON are both between WPB and Stuart.

12Z CMC is near Ft. Pierce.

12Z UKMET is 25 miles south of 6Z run, which was just south of Cape Canaveral. This run is only 15 miles north of Vero Beach vs the 0Z, which was at Cape Canaveral.

12Z UKMET:

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE     ANALYSED POSITION : 27.5N  72.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 08.11.2022    0  27.5N  72.2W      997            36
    0000UTC 09.11.2022   12  27.2N  74.5W      996            43
    1200UTC 09.11.2022   24  26.8N  76.4W      994            44
    0000UTC 10.11.2022   36  26.8N  78.9W      993            44
    1200UTC 10.11.2022   48  28.5N  82.0W      992            40
    0000UTC 11.11.2022   60  30.0N  84.6W      992            34
    1200UTC 11.11.2022   72  32.3N  84.7W      999            26
    0000UTC 12.11.2022   84  38.5N  80.9W      997            22
    1200UTC 12.11.2022   96  46.4N  73.4W      989            32
    0000UTC 13.11.2022  108  47.7N  62.6W      991            42
    1200UTC 13.11.2022  120              CEASED TRACKING

[Normandy]

Not gonna lie looks much better than I thought it would this early.  Curiously watching today to see how it unfolds, these WSW moving storms can have interesting results intensity wise.

[Clyde]

I can’t believe I am back posting in a hurricane topic in November, but here we are. Already getting some heavy squalls here east of Orlando with the easterly flow, although not specifically part of Nicole. Just had the tree service complete clean up last week on my most concerning “leaner” post Ian but expect I will lose a couple more this time around.

To Normandy’s point, the WSW track is always one to watch in FL, but hoping the time of year and dry air keeps a lid on this one.


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[olafminesaw]

Seems Nicole is going to need to get down to around 980-85 mb to reach hurricane strength. Of course this will be higher impact than a typical cat 1 due to it's size

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Seems Nicole is going to need to get down to around 980-85 mb to reach hurricane strength. Of course this will be higher impact than a typical cat 1 due to it's size

HWRF has landfall near the Space Coast as a 963 mb tropical storm.

[AChilders]

3 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

HWRF has landfall near the Space Coast as a 963 mb tropical storm.

How large is the TS wind field at that point?

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

3 minutes ago, AChilders said:

How large is the TS wind field at that point?

Big.

[olafminesaw]

21 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

HWRF has landfall near the Space Coast as a 963 mb tropical storm.

It seems like regardless of how much the pressure drops, it's maxing out between 60-75 mph. Any pressure drops below 980 are primarily expanding the wind field 

[Maxwell03]

56 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Not gonna lie looks much better than I thought it would this early.  Curiously watching today to see how it unfolds, these WSW moving storms can have interesting results intensity wise.

Yeah agreed, it doesn’t look half bad for a TC in November. 

[olafminesaw]

Indeed, looks pretty darn good all of a sudden 

[cptcatz]

Anyone know when the next low level recon is?

[Akeem the African Dream]

evacuation for zone a and b in palm beach county 

[Scott747]

14 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Anyone know when the next low level recon is?

Should be taking off soon and making a pass or two before this afternoon's package.

[olafminesaw]

45 kt surface winds recorded 200 miles or so West of the center (from the upper level recon flight), this thing is really starting to expand