AChilders Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 14 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: The Euro seems to really broaden the wind-field, without increasing max wind speed. Has a massive area of 35-45 mph winds, but probably would be a 50 mph landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 1 hour ago, GaWx said: I think the 12Z UKMET track is probably too far north because it initialized at 26.3 N, 69.1 W. The NHC actual position for then was 25.9 N, 69.1 W. This means Nicole was initialized by the 12Z UKMET ~30 miles too far north. So how far further south does that translate to at landfall? Vero Beach area? That would still make it a N outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Question for the experts on the board. In the Hurricane watch Statement the NHC mentions the possibility of 80 MPH gusts all the way down to Hallandale Beach. Looking at Weather.US wind gust maps of 5 different models for southern PBC I see nothing higher than the high 40s as gusts. Presumably sustained would be lower. Am I missing something or is the NHC just being extra cautious because of what happened with Ian? Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 47 minutes ago, AChilders said: 991 Landfall at around Hobe Sound Gulf Stream only 2-5 miles off shore here, so possible strength before landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Video Update on Nicole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 The last few frames of satellite looks like the center is moving due south and convection is trying to pop right there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 44 minutes ago, bigtenfan said: So how far further south does that translate to at landfall? Vero Beach area? That would still make it a N outlier. Not a 1:1 translation. An initialization error will have ripple effects downstream that can translate to significantly different -- sometimes extreme -- outcomes when compared to properly initialized models. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 23 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: Video Update on Nicole we linking up to chase this one ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 7, 2022 Author Share Posted November 7, 2022 The recon had it at 26.5N, 70.5W a little before 2 PM EST. The 10AM NHC forecast for 7 PM is for 27.0N, 70.5W. So, Nicole is already as far west as and 35 miles south of the NHC position for 5 hours later! Does anyone feel confident about the implications on future track adjustments? Further south? Or something different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 9 minutes ago, GaWx said: The recon had it at 26.5N, 70.5W a little before 2 PM EST. The 10AM NHC forecast for 7 PM is for 27.0N, 70.5W. So, Nicole is already as far west as and 35 miles south of the NHC position for 5 hours later! Does anyone feel confident about the implications on future track adjustments? Further south? Or something different? It appears another recon flight will be in the storm in 4-5 hours. It will be interesting to see if the LLC continues to move south or moves back to the W or NW in that timeframe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Someone tell me if I'm crazy but I'm seeing the LLC now moving just EAST of due south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jllevin79 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Flying from NYC to Tampa Thursday evening. Should I expect that this flight will be canceled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, jllevin79 said: Flying from NYC to Tampa Thursday evening. Should I expect that this flight will be canceled? check with your airline-who knows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
floridapirate Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 29 minutes ago, jllevin79 said: Flying from NYC to Tampa Thursday evening. Should I expect that this flight will be canceled? It will probably, but then again it might not. With the storm track today there is a 50-50 chance of cancellation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 The 4 pm discussion said it's still moving westward. I will say, watching the LLC in the short-term can be misleading, but still seems odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 16 minutes ago, floridapirate said: It will probably, but then again it might not. With the storm track today there is a 50-50 chance of cancellation. @jllevin79 If not cancelled, there will probably be shifting winds in squalls, which will cause ground stops/delays. Also look where your flight to TPA originated at before your airport. Coming out of PBI or MIA/FLL almost certainly suggests either cancelled or delayed. I've been on badly delayed flights because of weather in distant cities. OT- Nicole just spit out 'an' LLC within a broader within a broader center from beneath convection. Probably forms a new LLC, but not a sign intensification will be anything but slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 I still think we don't see much consolidation until Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 GEFS taking this just south of TB on 18z run. Power outages and downed trees/vegetation likely the primary impacts here. Debris cleanup is mostly but not completely done from Ian. Suppose the solutions that take it offshore would bring fetch up the bays and could present some flooding issues for parts of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Rainfall looks fairly tropical on WRF in less than 48 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 5 hours ago, Flagman69 said: Looks like it will be an interesting Veteran's Day weekend for me and the family at Carolina Beach! Not terribly at that point. Nor’easter in-and-out. Rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 4 hours ago, Floydbuster said: Video Update on Nicole I wish I had archived that Unisys track database fully as only the front page had been crawled to Wayback and 1 other before they turfed it along with some maps. I noticed that Yankee and Kate hurricanes are in that Unisys track map format which was always my favorite. I did locate them on different random sites but was there another source of more? Other formats are so unappealing I'd rather just have the software myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 It’s still clearly subtropical, but the burst of convection could help with organization if it can be persistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 8, 2022 Author Share Posted November 8, 2022 0Z UKMET: This is even more of a northern outlier with landfall Cape Canaveral vs slightly south of CC on 12Z run. 0Z is about 20 miles north of 12Z landfall and is slightly stronger. This track is 30+ miles further north than all 31 0Z GEFS members! This initialized at 26.9N, 70.7W. The NHC actual position then was 26.7N, 70.8W. So, it initialized ~15 miles NNE of actual, which is not too far off. TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ANALYSED POSITION : 26.9N 70.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 08.11.2022 0 26.9N 70.7W 1001 36 1200UTC 08.11.2022 12 27.7N 72.2W 1000 38 0000UTC 09.11.2022 24 27.0N 74.3W 998 42 1200UTC 09.11.2022 36 26.9N 76.1W 997 43 0000UTC 10.11.2022 48 27.3N 78.3W 995 47 1200UTC 10.11.2022 60 28.8N 81.3W 993 42 0000UTC 11.11.2022 72 29.9N 83.4W 995 32 1200UTC 11.11.2022 84 32.3N 83.7W 1000 29 0000UTC 12.11.2022 96 37.6N 79.7W 996 33 1200UTC 12.11.2022 108 43.8N 72.7W 984 40 0000UTC 13.11.2022 120 47.8N 61.5W 979 52 1200UTC 13.11.2022 132 CEASED TRACKING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Intensifies up to landfall (near 975 mb) on HWRF. Large eye or eye like feature near Port St. Lucie (I lived in Orlando, for a year, but don't know the FL East Coast well, other than Daytona-KSC-Cocoa Beach). Speaking of, sustained storm (50 knot) winds to near there on the coast, gales extend well N. Surge would seem to be larger than a purely tropical system. Semi-related- how well does the HWRF usually do with hybrid systems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 It’s still clearly subtropical, but the burst of convection could help with organization if it can be persistent.So far tonight it isSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 On 11/6/2022 at 5:04 PM, Akeem the African Dream said: looks awful like a typical November gale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Intensifies up to landfall (near 975 mb) on HWRF. Large eye or eye like feature near Port St. Lucie (I lived in Orlando, for a year, but don't know the FL East Coast well, other than Daytona-KSC-Cocoa Beach). Speaking of, sustained storm (50 knot) winds to near there on the coast, gales extend well N. Surge would seem to be larger than a purely tropical system. Semi-related- how well does the HWRF usually do with hybrid systems? Quoting myself, HWRF is fairly close on current satellite presentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 A little temperature increase when going over the center, maybe an attempt to form an inner core despite the mid satellite presentation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Here's how Nicole's current pressure of ~993-4mb (per 995mb dropsonde w/ 29 kt surface wind) compares to global guidance from two runs ago near landfall: BTW, once this becomes a hurricane this season will have had more hurricanes form just in November than during all of 2013. As usual, that analog never holds any serious weight to it. RIP downcasters and bears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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