GaWx Posted November 6, 2022 Author Share Posted November 6, 2022 25 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said: looks awful like a typical November gale Keep in mind that shear and 200 mb winds have been pretty high to this point. They'll be dropping per model consensus to unusually low levels for November over the next two days on the projected track while traversing 82 F SSTs. That's when models have it get better organized. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 54 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said: looks awful like a typical November gale Denial is the first stage 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 6, 2022 Author Share Posted November 6, 2022 https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/3722318-desantis-warns-floridians-to-prepare-for-tropical-disturbance-invest-98l/ This is the first article I've seen regarding FL preps. It has interesting wording as it says, "Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) on Sunday urged residents to prepare for a potential tropical depression that could hit the state’s east coast later this week." Prepare for a potential "TD"? Really? That's like telling Chicago to prepare for 1" of snow. Meanwhile, the 18Z GFS landfalls between Stuart and WPB as a cat 2 H Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 2 hours ago, turtlehurricane said: The weather here has shifted drastically throughout the past 24 hours. Heavy rain showers coming off the ocean are becoming increasingly frequent, plus it is quite breezy. This whole week is basically gonna be a hurricane situation, and the weather is already setting the mood. Im quite excited to see how this pans out on satellite, it seems to be a hybrid super-storm situation. Please maintain vigilance as the outer bands approach. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 6, 2022 Author Share Posted November 6, 2022 7PM TWO: Southwestern Atlantic: An area of low pressure located more than 300 miles north of Puerto Rico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move generally northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic where environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a subtropical or tropical storm is likely to form in the next day or so. The system is then forecast to turn westward or west-southwestward over the southwestern Atlantic by the middle part of this week where additional development is possible. Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas beginning in the early to middle part of this week. Interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm, hurricane, and storm surge watches could be required for a portion of these areas by early Monday. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and in products from your local weather office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 We’re in the cone. I’m sure all the water in the stores has magically disappeared as of this moment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AChilders Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Average intensity seems down this morning across models, but also further south approach and swing into the gulf seem to be very plausible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, AChilders said: Average intensity seems down this morning across models, but also further south approach and swing into the gulf seem to be very plausible Yep, the 6z Euro include with that trend. Pressure at landfall of 990-995 mb and strength of about 50 mph is my guess. A third landfall in Nova Scotia isn't out of the question as well, as per the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 06Z GFS shows landfall in Boca Raton (where I live) at 984mb vs Euro shows landfall in West Palm Beach at 998mb. If you split the difference you get landfall in Boynton Beach at 991mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 The lack of weakening advertised on the 6z GFS as storm traverses Florida is insightful - to my mind it points to storm entering most conducive environment to strengthening right as it nears landfall. We need to watch this aspect closely - track at landfall we are zeroing in on, but intensity looks like a big question mark. I believe we could see big shifts in this regard inside 24 hours The track further south also means more time over warmer water. Being November 7, 100 miles means a lot in terms of SST's even off the southeast coast of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Looks like my trip to Orlando should be ok with the recent south trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said: Looks like my trip to Orlando should be ok with the recent south trend? It's going to be a top heavy storm with all the bad weather to the north. Regardless of what happens Orlando is gonna get some nasty weather. Canceling your trip depends on what you plan on doing there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Kids first Disney trip is supposed to happen on the 11th... Or was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Not exactly your classic strengthening TS look 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikegl31 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 I'm leaving for Disney tonight with the kids...watching this very closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 20 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Not exactly your classic strengthening TS look Safe to say this one has a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AChilders Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 NHC now predicting this to attain hurricane status Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AChilders Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 833 WTNT42 KNHC 071458 TCDAT2 Subtropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 1100 AM AST Mon Nov 07 2022 The structure of Nicole this morning remains distinctly subtropical, as the low-level circulation remains tangled up with an elongated upper-level low. The wind-field also remains quite broad, with data from the NOAA-P3 Hurricane Hunters this morning showing the highest winds remaining displaced well away from the center. The initial intensity is being held at 40 kt for this advisory which is supported by the subtropical classification of ST2.5/35-40 kt from TAFB, the earlier scatterometer data, and recent SFMR winds from the NOAA-P3 aircraft in the 40-kt range. Nicole might be starting to take a northwestward turn this morning, with the estimated motion at 320/8 kt. A continued northwestward motion is expected through the day, though there might be some wobbles more north or west here and there as the low-level circulation continues to interact with the decaying upper-level low. After 24 hours, an anomalously strong mid-level ridge is expected to amplify over the southeastern U.S. which is expected to steer Nicole and result in the system turning westward or even west-southwestward on Tuesday night into Wednesday. This ridging will then re-position itself to the northeast of Nicole by Thursday and Friday which is expected to allow the cyclone to begin gaining latitude after it moves across the Florida Peninsula, though how quickly this occurs is a source of track uncertainty in this time frame. Finally a broad mid-latitude trough is forecast to eject out of the Rockies into the Great Lakes region, further eroding the ridge and allowing Nicole to recurve by the end of the forecast period. The track guidance is fairly tightly clustered for the first 60 hours of the forecast, though it has taken a noticeable shift southward this cycle, and the NHC track forecast was shifted a bit southward due to this adjustment, but still is a bit north of the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA). Intensity wise, Nicole may take some time to consolidate given its large radius of maximum winds and currently meager central convection due to nearby dry air related to the nearby upper-level low. This feature should gradually decay and warm 27-28 C sea-surface temperatures should enable more organized convection to develop while the system remains in a low vertical wind shear environment. Nicole is forecast to transition to a tropical storm sometime in the 24-36 hour period as this convection helps to contract the radius of maximum wind, with further intensification expected thereafter. The intensity guidance was a bit higher this cycle, and the latest forecast now takes Nicole to a 65-kt hurricane in 60 hours, which is close to the latest HCCA, HMON, and SHIPS guidance. After Nicole moves inland, weakening is anticipated, and the region that Nicole is forecast to emerge off in the northern Gulf of Mexico has cooler SSTs that likely would not support robust reintensification. Regardless on the ultimate intensity of Nicole, the storm's large size due to an enhanced pressure gradient north of the storm will likely cause significant wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts over a large portion of the northwestern Bahamas, Florida, and the southeastern coast of the United States during much of the upcoming week. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are possible across portions of the northwestern Bahamas and southeast to east-central Florida beginning Wednesday, where a Hurricane Watch has been issued. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch areas in Florida and Georgia beginning Wednesday. 2. A dangerous storm surge is possible across portions of the northwestern Bahamas, much of the east coast of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for most of the east coast of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia. 3. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center, and outside of the cone, and affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast U.S. 4. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall by Wednesday night and Thursday across the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with river rises on portions of the St. Johns River. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 26.2N 69.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM 12H 08/0000Z 27.0N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM 24H 08/1200Z 27.7N 71.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM 36H 09/0000Z 27.6N 74.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 48H 09/1200Z 26.9N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 26.6N 78.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 27.3N 81.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 29.4N 83.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 33.3N 79.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 ^That's a solid forecast at this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Hurricane Watch here in Broward County Florida!!! It's been so long since we were so deep in the cone and got watches so early. I am beginning to go crazy but will have to save the meteorological analysis for after work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 I don't get the early recurve scenario - with most major guidance (ex the 6z GFS) showing a sig northern component returning to Nicole's trajectory while the UL trough axis is still over the Rockies. 6z GFS makes the most sense to me (by far). But still think it's slightly too far north across Florida. I don't think we see any notable latitude gains until Nicole is in the Gulf. The whole scenario is evolving for a more impactful evolution-- a second landfall, then up the eastern apps into New England, as it phases and becomes extratropical, begins deepening. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 The latest GFS is 10 mb weaker than the previous run and 20 mb weaker than five runs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 GEFS has the system slightly southwest of the op run thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 7, 2022 Author Share Posted November 7, 2022 12Z UKMET: landfall near/just south of Cape Canaveral, which is similar to its prior run and 100+ miles north of 6Z Euro, 12Z GFS, and 12Z JMA. It is similar to the 12Z CMC and just north of the 12Z ICON. So, we have an interesting battle between Euro/GFS/JMA and UKMET/ICON/CMC. Euro 12Z will be out soon. 12Z UKMET: TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ANALYSED POSITION : 26.3N 69.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 07.11.2022 0 26.3N 69.1W 1004 37 0000UTC 08.11.2022 12 26.9N 70.8W 1002 33 1200UTC 08.11.2022 24 27.6N 72.0W 1001 36 0000UTC 09.11.2022 36 27.4N 74.6W 1000 45 1200UTC 09.11.2022 48 27.0N 76.2W 998 42 0000UTC 10.11.2022 60 27.0N 78.5W 997 45 1200UTC 10.11.2022 72 28.4N 81.1W 996 38 0000UTC 11.11.2022 84 29.2N 83.2W 997 31 1200UTC 11.11.2022 96 30.8N 83.3W 1001 29 0000UTC 12.11.2022 108 34.8N 80.3W 1000 33 1200UTC 12.11.2022 120 40.2N 73.5W 992 46 0000UTC 13.11.2022 132 48.7N 64.6W 983 41 1200UTC 13.11.2022 144 CEASED TRACKING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 7, 2022 Author Share Posted November 7, 2022 I think the 12Z UKMET track is probably too far north because it initialized at 26.3 N, 69.1 W. The NHC actual position for then was 25.9 N, 69.1 W. This means Nicole was initialized by the 12Z UKMET ~30 miles too far north. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AChilders Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Euro coming in stronger, 995 at 48 hours edit, 993 at 60 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AChilders Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 991 Landfall at around Hobe Sound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 The Euro seems to really broaden the wind-field, without increasing max wind speed. Has a massive area of 35-45 mph winds, but probably would be a 50 mph landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flagman69 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Looks like it will be an interesting Veteran's Day weekend for me and the family at Carolina Beach! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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