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Hurricane Nicole


GaWx
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Looks like we finally have rotating cells beginning to come onshore. Also the water is pretty high as we head to low tide here in Charleston, I worry this evening as we head for another high tide at 9 PM that we have quite a bit of inundation as the beaches are really worked over from Ian already. Looks like a giant excavator rolled through

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So Nicole packed a little more punch than I anticipated here in EC FL. We had 2-3 hours of intense winds overnight and flooding rains. Definitely more punch than other late season storms (like Josephine in ‘95 or Gabrielle in ‘01) that were similar strength.



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 By looking at the county by county power outage map, one can get a good idea of where the highest winds were. In FL going up the coast, significant numbers of outages don't start til Indian River county, where Nicole made landfall. The next county up, Brevard, has by far the highest number and percentage in the state with 25% out (as mentioned above). Significant outages go as far north as St. John's (8%) in NE FL. Even way up here in SAV, my power was out for a couple of hours and just came back on.
 

In stark contrast, SE FL (which was on the weak side of the eye) has only a very low % out (under 2% St. Lucie county southward). 

 Although well inland, Orange county (Orlando) has 6% out and Marion county has 9% out. In NW FL, Madison county at 19% has the second highest percentage out! Does anyone know why?

 Overall, for a minimal hurricane, Nicole has been pretty impactful on the strong side of the eye. I'm pretty sure that most minimal hurricanes haven't had this much impact overall. This was aided by a strong gradient due to the big high that was to the north.

 

 

 

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

...CENTER OF NICOLE STRADDLING THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
REGION...
...POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR STORM SURGE, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY
RAINS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 83.2W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES
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As to Nicole not being a 'cane at landfall, probably true near the center, but if you noted that report from the space center further north (100 mph gusts above the surface), I think what happened was that strongest winds decoupled from the core when the storm straddled the coast, and were ejected north. So there was a hurricane aspect to the landfall, but very non-classical as to location of that remnant. How are storm surge outcomes north of the Cape? That might be another aspect that was better anticipated from hurricane Nicole than TS Nicole designations. It's sort of like the Sandy landfall in that what the storm was named could mislead some vulnerable coastal residents, in hindsight many thought that Sandy should have been retained as a hurricane to landfall. Some in storm surge situations might have (wrongly) surmised that Sandy wasn't even a hurricane any more, and let their guard down. This was widely discussed IIRC in the days after landfall. Also a storm with a 16' storm surge and 90 mph wind gusts could safely be called a hurricane for a few extra hours. 

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3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 By looking at the county by county power outage map, one can get a good idea of where the highest winds were. In FL going up the coast, significant numbers of outages don't start til Indian River county, where Nicole made landfall. The next county up, Brevard, has by far the highest number and percentage in the state with 25% out (as mentioned above). Significant outages go as far north as St. John's (8%) in NE FL. Even way up here in SAV, my power was out for a couple of hours and just came back on.
 

In stark contrast, SE FL (which was on the weak side of the eye) has only a very low % out (under 2% St. Lucie county southward). 

 Although well inland, Orange county (Orlando) has 6% out and Marion county has 9% out. In NW FL, Madison county at 19% has the second highest percentage out! Does anyone know why?

 Overall, for a minimal hurricane, Nicole has been pretty impactful on the strong side of the eye. I'm pretty sure that most minimal hurricanes haven't had this much impact overall. This was aided by a strong gradient due to the big high that was to the north.

 

 

 

Orange County looked to peak at several hours of sustained TS (35-38 mph) with gusts to mid 50s. I heard transformers popping this morning. 

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43 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

As to Nicole not being a 'cane at landfall, probably true near the center, but if you noted that report from the space center further north (100 mph gusts above the surface), I think what happened was that strongest winds decoupled from the core when the storm straddled the coast, and were ejected north. So there was a hurricane aspect to the landfall, but very non-classical as to location of that remnant. How are storm surge outcomes north of the Cape? That might be another aspect that was better anticipated from hurricane Nicole than TS Nicole designations. It's sort of like the Sandy landfall in that what the storm was named could mislead some vulnerable coastal residents, in hindsight many thought that Sandy should have been retained as a hurricane to landfall. Some in storm surge situations might have (wrongly) surmised that Sandy wasn't even a hurricane any more, and let their guard down. This was widely discussed IIRC in the days after landfall. Also a storm with a 16' storm surge and 90 mph wind gusts could safely be called a hurricane for a few extra hours. 

This doesn't make any sense.  Having 100 MPH flight level winds does not make a storm a hurricane.  The lack of sustained 60+ MPH winds anywhere near the coast suggests this did not have 75 MPH sustained surface winds.  It is possible for a storm to be stronger aloft and weaker at the surface.  It is also possible for a storm to have weaker flight level winds and have the winds mix down better.  Nothing I am saying here downplays Nicole as a storm.

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1 hour ago, Normandy said:

This doesn't make any sense.  Having 100 MPH flight level winds does not make a storm a hurricane.  The lack of sustained 60+ MPH winds anywhere near the coast suggests this did not have 75 MPH sustained surface winds.  It is possible for a storm to be stronger aloft and weaker at the surface.  It is also possible for a storm to have weaker flight level winds and have the winds mix down better.  Nothing I am saying here downplays Nicole as a storm.

What you describe is true of every tropical storm. Very rarely do rated winds verify, at least consistently. 

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Way up here, I had two two hour+ long outages today. I've been getting bands of heavy showers this evening accompanied by very gusty winds as higher dewpoint air has displaced the wedged in air. There's been almost no thunder. We're under a tornado watch til 1AM. 
 

 Charleston surge was up from 2 feet during yesterday morning's high tide  to 2.6 at this morning's high tide. The projected peak surge was 2-4 feet. So, it verified in the lower part of the range though there still was a good amount of surge flooding. Ft. Pulaski's high tide this morning included a surge of 2.9 feet that lead to Highway 80 and Tybee having a notable amount of flooding. That should end up the highest tide for this storm.

I'm near 1.5" for this storm, the third this season to give me rain/wind.

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