Prospero Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 11 minutes ago, FPizz said: Weather channel at my hotel. Can't attach a pic unfortunately, file too big You have a webcam?? How about a website link? is this the one with the beach erosion. UGH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 9, 2022 Author Share Posted November 9, 2022 As long as it is near the E tip of Grand Bahama Island at the 4PM advisory, it wouldn't be tracking south of any of the models. It is only then when it would need to start turning WNW to not be tracking south of the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 A storm pic from Coopers Town as Nicole passed. https://twitter.com/Tribune242/status/1590431132113580032?t=IjG5Oh36pRIpJn_xnRaCiQ&s=19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 A doorbell video from Abaco. Looks like what you would expect from a TS. https://twitter.com/NashWX/status/1590433968822026240?t=OTtGHJ03ch35aw3Ipsr-fQ&s=19 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, TradeWinds said: A doorbell video from Abaco. Looks like what you woukd expect from a TS. https://twitter.com/NashWX/status/1590433968822026240?t=OTtGHJ03ch35aw3Ipsr-fQ&s=19 Curious about the second eyewall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AChilders Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Has anyone calculated the IKE for Nicole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: The past is not predictive, but I recall him doing quite well with projecting Ian's intensity. There's an overall hyperbolic flair with him, but there's probably some potential upside on intensity compared to the official forecast. You should read more and post less too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 I cannot properly describe with words how eery and awe inspiring it is outside right now. Constant wind and rain. I can feel the power in the air, and it is the same look and feel as when we got real hurricanes in the past. Outer bands keep popping up and hitting us, we’re in a zone with extremely exotic dynamics, near the boundary of the inner and outer band zones. The clouds are just roaring along at the speed of a car on the highway 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Drove down from Virginia, the outer bands were pretty intense in the Daytona Beach area. We are staying in Orlando and it seems pretty calm, wind wise. Rain seems to be picking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Now have Hurricane Nicole 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 9, 2022 Author Share Posted November 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Now have Hurricane Nicole 000 WTNT62 KNHC 092258 CCA TCUAT2 Hurricane Nicole Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 600 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022 Corrected header ...NICOLE BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE MAKING LANDFALL ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... Recent observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Nicole has strengthened in to a hurricane. The maximum winds are estimated to be 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. SUMMARY OF 600 PM EST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 78.4W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF FREEPORT ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES $$ Forecaster Roberts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 That’s a 5 mb drop. What the reasonable lid on deepening prior to FL landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 3 hours ago, Prospero said: You have a webcam?? How about a website link? is this the one with the beach erosion. UGH I'm in Jacksonville beach. Got a pic with Reynolds Wolf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Looks like South Daytona is going to have some real problems overnight. They have evacuated multiple high rise condos that they have deemed at risk of ‘complete structural failure’.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 976mb reading on current pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Just starting to cross the warmer core of Gulf stream, I would say Nicole reaches at least low end cat-2 at some point tonight, possibly mid-range cat-2, and also performs more of a curve north than model consensus, earlier was asking people what they thought of a grazing coastal track, possibly some inland movement now probable, but I think Nicole will try to stay over warm water as long as it can, could mean a landfall Jupiter to Melbourne. Never all that far inland, heads up NNW with enough of circulation over water to retain cat-1 intensity for quite a while, strong TS near Georgia coast in 36-42h. Long duration fetch means storm surge issues must be taken very seriously. This is now almost as strong as Sandy approaching NJ and Staten Island comes to mind. Were not the storm surge forecasts lowballed there? Or did people not take accurate warnings seriously? One or other as I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 14 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Just starting to cross the warmer core of Gulf stream, I would say Nicole reaches at least low end cat-2 at some point tonight, possibly mid-range cat-2, and also performs more of a curve north than model consensus, earlier was asking people what they thought of a grazing coastal track, possibly some inland movement now probable, but I think Nicole will try to stay over warm water as long as it can, could mean a landfall Jupiter to Melbourne. Never all that far inland, heads up NNW with enough of circulation over water to retain cat-1 intensity for quite a while, strong TS near Georgia coast in 36-42h. Long duration fetch means storm surge issues must be taken very seriously. This is now almost as strong as Sandy approaching NJ and Staten Island comes to mind. Were not the storm surge forecasts lowballed there? Or did people not take accurate warnings seriously? One or other as I recall. Wtf? Not close to Sandy strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AChilders Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 18 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Just starting to cross the warmer core of Gulf stream, I would say Nicole reaches at least low end cat-2 at some point tonight, possibly mid-range cat-2, and also performs more of a curve north than model consensus, earlier was asking people what they thought of a grazing coastal track, possibly some inland movement now probable, but I think Nicole will try to stay over warm water as long as it can, could mean a landfall Jupiter to Melbourne. Never all that far inland, heads up NNW with enough of circulation over water to retain cat-1 intensity for quite a while, strong TS near Georgia coast in 36-42h. Long duration fetch means storm surge issues must be taken very seriously. This is now almost as strong as Sandy approaching NJ and Staten Island comes to mind. Were not the storm surge forecasts lowballed there? Or did people not take accurate warnings seriously? One or other as I recall. While this isn't close to Sandy in size or strength, I do think with the duration and size of the wind field that the surge is being under forecasted. There could definitely be areas that see 6-8' of storm surge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Sandy! there it is 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Please take the banter to the correct thread and stop with the hyperbole 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 I feel like this is probably not quite right... 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Either that or some of the posters on here took over the NHC. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Roger Smith said: Just starting to cross the warmer core of Gulf stream, I would say Nicole reaches at least low end cat-2 at some point tonight, possibly mid-range cat-2, and also performs more of a curve north than model consensus, earlier was asking people what they thought of a grazing coastal track, possibly some inland movement now probable, but I think Nicole will try to stay over warm water as long as it can, could mean a landfall Jupiter to Melbourne. Never all that far inland, heads up NNW with enough of circulation over water to retain cat-1 intensity for quite a while, strong TS near Georgia coast in 36-42h. Long duration fetch means storm surge issues must be taken very seriously. This is now almost as strong as Sandy approaching NJ and Staten Island comes to mind. Were not the storm surge forecasts lowballed there? Or did people not take accurate warnings seriously? One or other as I recall. 1) Sandy made landfall at 945 mb 2) Sandy was 1,100 miles wide 3) Sandy pushed the surge into New York Bay which is one of the largest bays in the world and naturally incredibly surge prone. There is nothing like that around where Nicole is going. To sum it up, this is nothing like Sandy. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Interesting official forecast for Orlando just increased wind forecast at 7:30 PM update to peak 55-65 with gusts to 80. Don't see that verifying but we'll know more as reports start further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Just now, TradeWinds said: Interesting official forecast for Orlando just increased wind forecast at 7:30 PM update to peak 55-65 with gusts to 80. Don't see that verifying but we'll know more as reports start further south. Recon showing expansive wind field on the N side of the storm. So with the current track, not an unreasonable forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Here in Gulfport FL, Tampa Bay, it is 68 degrees with a strong breeze and gusts into the 30s with cold drizzle at times. It feels like a big storm, but not Tropical. It feels like a Winter storm. A Southeaster? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Definitely feels tropical here. 73º with a dewpoint of 72.6º. It's been breezy all day but nothing noteworthy. Max gust so far is 25 kts . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 The transformer to my house, and only my house, blew about an hour ago. I might possibly have been the first power outage in Seminole County due to Nicole…. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Question for everyone and forgive me if this should be in the banter thread, but. When I look at the radar on weather.com it looks like the eye is almost going NNW as it lands putting it on a track to go over Orlando or even east of Orlando. This seems to differ from the cone or most tracks, is this just the model they are using or are they projecting a jump east in the track? Or am I just misreading the radar . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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