Hurricane Nicole

[FPizz]

Sea is angry here in Neptune Beach

[NorthHillsWx]

Nicole Is getting its act together today. Bahamas radar shows an extremely pretty radar presentation. Gonna see if it can maintain convection through the minimum today unlike yesterday but hi res models are showing just that and have been by the time it reaches the Bahamas. It would not shock me to see cat 2 based on recon and radar trends if the storm can maintain deep convection 

[Windspeed]

Nice little reminder about cold pool aloft and tropopause cloud top temperatures. Convection is never going to look as impressive as a hurricane at the same latitude from June into October. Cloudtops simply don't reach those heights or get as cold as previous months from a tropical surface low. Doesn't mean you can't get a strong hurricane as long as core convection is organized.

[PSLwx]

At 7:10 AM EST, 2 E Sewalls Point [Amz555 Co, FL] MESONET reports TROPICAL STORM. FSWN HOUSE OF REFUGE WEATHERSTEM STATION MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 50KT/ 58MPH FROM THE NORTHEAST.

[buckeyefan1]

5 hours ago, turtlehurricane said:

This is gonna be such a good day to be a hurricane meteorologist in Southeast Florida. We’re already getting one intense band after the next, and the hurricane will be rapidly getting closer and stronger as the day progresses.

I think Cat 3 landfall is quite likely. Conditions are extremely favorable and it will go insane over the Gulf Stream. It could also directly hit the densely populated Southeast Florida metro area. It might even track as far south as Miami. 
 

This is not a minimal hurricane situation at all. This is an extremely powerful hurricane in the making.

Read more and post less before you find yourself on the outside looking in 

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Sea is angry here in Neptune Beach

On takeoff out of West Palm Beach this morning

 

 

[Modfan2]

Already seeing some flooding on Hutchin Island in Stuart near Bathtub Beach and inlet

[jbenedet]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Nicole Is getting its act together today. Bahamas radar shows an extremely pretty radar presentation. Gonna see if it can maintain convection through the minimum today unlike yesterday but hi res models are showing just that and have been by the time it reaches the Bahamas. It would not shock me to see cat 2 based on recon and radar trends if the storm can maintain deep convection 

There was a relatively cool eddy Nicole passed over yesterday evening - 26-27c isotherm.  My thinking is this was a big contributor to rapid warming  of the convection. And that’s been validated by the big changes today while atmospheric conditions are largely the same.

[PSLwx]

15 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Already seeing some flooding on Hutchin Island in Stuart near Bathtub Beach and inlet

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Really a pretty impressive look on satellite atm. Don’t see any real change to environment between now and landfall, still will be limited by dry air. Don’t think anything inhibits gradual strengthening though. 70-80kts would be my guess with an 85 max and 65 minimum. Significant event for time of year and surge will be maximized by fetch, wind direction piling water up for days, and moon.  

[Windspeed]

There was a relatively cool eddy Nicole passed over yesterday evening - 26-27c isotherm.  My thinking is this was a big contributor to rapid warming  of the convection. And that’s been validated by the big changes today while atmospheric conditions are largely the same.

Good for discussion, but I think dry air entrainment was a bigger factor yesterday through this morning. Upper tropospheric temperatures are cooler therefore 26-27°C OHC can be quite sufficent for evaporate induced strong lapse rates to drive convection. We've seen strong late hurricanes in the middle of the Atlantic Basin over relatively moderate SSTs, even around the 26°C threshold as that threshold can drop several degrees based on upper environmental conditions. In other words, if Nicole can mix out the dry air, I do not think the moderate SSTs will be as big a deterrent for strengthening this evening. The Bahama landmasses are also not very big with respect to being a deterrent for strengthening as well. Perhaps for already intense hurricanes or stalled ones there, yes. But not one with a fairly decent relative forward motion. I do think Nicole will become a hurricane tonight despite the small interactions with land and the moderate SSTs if the core can be successful at mixing out the southerly fetch of a dry airmass. We shall see.

[Hotair]

000
WTNT62 KNHC 091653
TCUAT2

Tropical Storm Nicole Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022
1155 AM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

...NICOLE MAKES LANDFALL ON GREAT ABACO ISLAND...

Weather radar data from the Bahamas and surface observations 
indicate that the center of Nicole has made landfall on Great Abaco 
Island in the northwestern Bahamas with an estimated intensity of 
70 mph (110 km/h).  A private weather station on Elbow Cay, just 
east of Great Abaco Island, reported a minimum pressure of 986.8 mb 
(29.14 inches) as the center passed near it.  Data from an Air 
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the estimated 
minimum pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). 

SUMMARY OF 1155 AM EST...1655 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.1W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF MARSH HARBOR GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Normandy]

Category 3 would be an extreme overperform I think.  That being said, I think the NW fetch of winds is going to cause tons of beach erosion and surge damage on the E coast of Florida.  Holding firm low end Cat 2, landfall between WPB and FL.

 

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Read more and post less before you find yourself on the outside looking in 

The past is not predictive, but I recall him doing quite well with projecting Ian's intensity. 

There's an overall hyperbolic flair with him, but there's probably some potential upside on intensity compared to the official forecast.

[TPAwx]

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The past is not predictive, but I recall him doing quite well with projecting Ian's intensity. 

There's an overall hyperbolic flair with him, but there's probably some potential upside on intensity compared to the official forecast.

He’s also the resident SME on outer band forecasting and dynamics.

[Richie]

8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The past is not predictive, but I recall him doing quite well with projecting Ian's intensity. 

There's an overall hyperbolic flair with him, but there's probably some potential upside on intensity compared to the official forecast.

I think it's beyond "hyperbolic flair" when you say that a category 3 is "quite likely" and "might even track as far south as Miami." As of the 1 PM intermediary update, Dade has been removed from even a tropical storm watch.

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, Richie said:

I think it's beyond "hyperbolic flair" when you say that a category 3 is "quite likely" and "might even track as far south as Miami." As of the 1 PM intermediary update, Dade has been removed from even a tropical storm watch.

Well, he's gonna have to explain why he feels like it could go that far south.

[GaWx]

1. 12Z Euro is way north to just south of Melbourne! Also, landfall isn't til 4AM.

2. Similar to the 12Z Euro, 12Z UKMET went 30 miles north to Melbourne! Why so far north? Because it moves NW from 11PM to a 3AM landfall, which is a later landfall than the midnight to 1AM landfalls of recent runs.

Last 4 runs UKMET:

18Z Vero
0Z Ft. Pierce
6Z Vero
12Z Melbourne

12Z HMON is also way up near Melbourne, similar to its three prior runs back to yesterday's 18Z.

[PSLwx]

At 11:05 AM EST, 5 NE Port Canaveral [Brevard Co, FL] OTHER FEDERAL reports TROPICAL STORM. USSF WIND TOWER 3 MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 49KTS/ 56MPH FROM THE NORTHEAST.

At 1:15 PM EST, 2 ENE Daytona Beach [Amz550 Co, FL] MESONET reports TROPICAL STORM. FSWN BEACH SAFETY HEADQUARTERS WEATHERSTEM STATION MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 43KT/ 50MPH.

[Weather Mike]

26 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. 12Z Euro is way north to just south of Melbourne! Also, landfall isn't til 4AM.

2. Similar to the 12Z Euro, 12Z UKMET went 30 miles north to Melbourne! Why so far north? Because it moves NW from 11PM to a 3AM landfall, which is a later landfall than the midnight to 1AM landfalls of recent runs.

Last 4 runs UKMET:

18Z Vero
0Z Ft. Pierce
6Z Vero
12Z Melbourne

12Z HMON is also way up near Melbourne, similar to its three prior runs back to yesterday's 18Z.

With that High pressure you think its going to allow it to all of a sudden head NW that quickly from now vs allow it to head almost due west then begin the NW track after landfall ? 

 

[Prismshine Productions]

With that High pressure you think its going to allow it to all of a sudden head NW that quickly from now vs allow it to head almost due west then begin the NW track after landfall ? 
 

Trough is already at the Texas/Colorado border, it is gonna start feeling that tug

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

[chris21]

8 minutes ago, Weather Mike said:

With that High pressure you think its going to allow it to all of a sudden head NW that quickly from now vs allow it to head almost due west then begin the NW track after landfall ? 

 

Every model shifted north significantly at 12z. We’ll see.

[NeffsvilleWx]

37 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. 12Z Euro is way north to just south of Melbourne! Also, landfall isn't til 4AM.

 

Also worth nothing, Euro maintains intensity. No further strengthening.

[w1pf]

The 1PM Nicole advisory map showing tropical-storm force winds over the whole FL peninsula is just wrong.

FLZ041-047-054-059-064-141-147-092000-
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
DAYTONA BEACH  HVY RAIN  71  69  93 N24G32    29.96F FOG
DELAND         RAIN      68  66  95 N16G23    29.98F FOG
JFK SPACE CTR  PTSUNNY   74  64  69 NE23G36   29.88F
TITUSVILLE     LGT RAIN  77  70  78 NE20G29   29.91F FOG
CAPE CANAVERAL RAIN      75  70  83 NE24G32   29.84F
PATRICK AFB    PTSUNNY   75  73  94 N30G37    29.83F
MELBOURNE      CLOUDY    74  71  91 N22G35    29.87F
VERO BEACH     RAIN      76  73  91 N29G37    29.81F

[Windspeed]

Best radar presentation yet. More symmetrical eyewall, though not fully closed ATM. The W to SW semicircle however is looking better organized and currently raking Grand Bahama, which should be ongoing for a while this afternoon with current motion.

[GaWx]

Summary of 12Z runs at FL landfall south to north for documentation purposes:

GFS, HWRF: Stuart
ICON, CMC: Vero Beach
HAFS: Sebastian
Euro: just south of Melbourne
UKMET, HMON, NAM: Melbourne

 Stuart to Melbourne is 65 miles straight line

[GaWx]

34 minutes ago, Weather Mike said:

With that High pressure you think its going to allow it to all of a sudden head NW that quickly from now vs allow it to head almost due west then begin the NW track after landfall ? 

 

12Z UKMET is straight westerly til 4PM EST, when it has Nicole at the eastern end of Grand Bahama Island. Then it turns WNW from then through midnight. After that it turns NW til the 4AM landfall at Melbourne.

[FPizz]

Weather channel at my hotel. Can't attach a pic unfortunately, file too big

 

 

[Floydbuster]

Nicole will strengthen over the Gulf Stream, especially with the tighter core.

[dbullsfan]

As long as Tampa remains in the cone the assumption should always be it will turn to the north quicker than expected. Nicole most likely doesn’t even sniff the west coast of Florida and just works her way up the center of the state.


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