Hurricane Nicole

[kdennis78]

Local mets are all over the place with rain for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Is it possible to get a good handle on the amounts we could see in northern NJ?

[NavarreDon]

Hmmm….gotta be really close to hurricane Nicole. Maybe 70mph.



.

[hawkeye_wx]

New dropsonde says 984 mb.  It's doing quite well considering the core is currently pretty hollow.

[olafminesaw]

The 12zHAFS nailed the evolution today if you flip through the IR frames. Like, shocking really. Gets convection ramping up again around midnight 

[Normandy]

^ Agreed.  Any deep convection and this is a solid Cat 1/2 cane with this structure.

[turtlehurricane]

Outer bands are here. It’s getting wild. I’m out trying to get supplies. Neglected preparations due to work… it was my own choice so I can’t complain…

[Prismshine Productions]

Kept it 65mph, pressure 984 on the 7pm update

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

[SENC]

decent thunder storms ya say?   /sarc

[Prospero]

The strongest winds right now are on the NC coast. So far the highest gust I've seen is 58 at Alligator Bridge.

[PSLwx]

At 7:51 PM EST, 4 NNE Walton [St. Lucie Co, FL] MESONET reports NON-TSTM WND GST of M46 MPH. WEATHERFLOW STATION XSTL AT THE SAINT LUCIE NUCLEAR POWER PLANT MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 40KT/46MPH FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.

[Roger Smith]

Current satellite image reminds me of an eagle attacking a school of tuna, all that's needed is a bun and some mayo. 

Anyone else getting the sense that Nicole may not really make a landfall in FL but may just graze the east coast of the state and move towards coastal GA? 

http://www.weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_eusa_1070_100.jpg

[AnthonyEC]

12 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Current satellite image reminds me of an eagle attacking a school of tuna, all that's needed is a bun and some mayo. 

Anyone else getting the sense that Nicole may not really make a landfall in FL but may just graze the east coast of the state and move towards coastal GA? 

http://www.weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_eusa_1070_100.jpg

No chance. High pressure way too strong 

[Weather Mike]

3 minutes ago, AnthonyEC said:

No chance. High pressure way too strong 

Agree that high is going to force it into Florida 

[cptcatz]

Looks like it's trying to pop some convection on the western eyewall.  Needs it to stick if it's gonna intensify some more.

[Prismshine Productions]

Up to 70mph at 10pm

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

[LakeNormanStormin]

CAT 2 at landfall is my guestimate

Structure is solid

100 mph hurricane into Brevard county

[yoda]

Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022
1000 PM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

Nicole's satellite appearance has changed little since this
afternoon.  Deep convection is not very strong near the center of
the cyclone at this time, and there appears to be some dry air
intrusions into the circulation as evidenced by water vapor 
imagery.  Nonetheless, wind and central pressure observations from 
NOAA and Air Force Hurricane aircraft indicate that the system is 
very close to hurricane strength and the current advisory intensity 
is set to 60 kt.

Center fixes indicate that the cyclone is moving
west-southwestward, or about 250/9 kt  The track forecast
philosophy is basically the same as in the previous advisory
package.  Nicole should move west-southwestward to westward, on the
south side of an eastward-moving high pressure area, for the next 24
hours.  Thereafter, the system should turn northwestward and then
northward along the western side of the high.  In 3-5 days, Nicole
is likely to accelerate northeastward over the eastern United
States, to the east of a large mid-level trough.  The track model
guidance has not changed significantly, nor has the official
forecast.  This is near the southern edge of the guidance suite for
the next 1-2 days, and roughly in the middle of the guidance
thereafter.

Nicole will be moving over fairly warm SSTs of 27-28 degrees
Celsius during the next day or so.  However, the SHIPS guidance
indicates that the vertical shear will be 25 kt or higher, with
low-to mid-tropospheric humidities on the order of 50 percent,
during the next 24 hours.  Nicole is likely to become a hurricane
soon but, given the marginal dynamic and thermodynamic environment, 
significant strengthening seems unlikely.  The official intensity 
forecast is near or above the available model guidance, and closely 
follows the decay-SHIPS model after landfall.  Weakening is expected 
after Nicole moves inland over Florida and Georgia and while it
accelerates northeastward over the southeastern United States.  The
cyclone should complete extratropical transition by 72 hours and
merge with another extratropical low near Atlantic Canada in 120
hours.

[AnthonyEC]

1 hour ago, LakeNormanStormin said:

CAT 2 at landfall is my guestimate

Structure is solid

100 mph hurricane into Brevard county

I’m Not sure there is enough time to get there or enough latent heat. 

[GaWx]

 0Z UKMET continued the south trend on landfall and does so at Ft. Pierce vs Vero Beach on the 18Z:

 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE     ANALYSED POSITION : 27.3N  74.6W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 09.11.2022    0  27.3N  74.6W      991            46
    1200UTC 09.11.2022   12  26.9N  76.4W      990            45
    0000UTC 10.11.2022   24  26.9N  79.2W      987            47
    1200UTC 10.11.2022   36  28.5N  82.0W      989            39
    0000UTC 11.11.2022   48  30.1N  84.6W      992            33
    1200UTC 11.11.2022   60  32.8N  84.6W      998            25
    0000UTC 12.11.2022   72  39.5N  81.2W      994            20
    1200UTC 12.11.2022   84  45.7N  73.4W      985            33
    0000UTC 13.11.2022   96  48.6N  61.0W      987            44
    1200UTC 13.11.2022  108              CEASED TRACKING

[turtlehurricane]

This is gonna be such a good day to be a hurricane meteorologist in Southeast Florida. We’re already getting one intense band after the next, and the hurricane will be rapidly getting closer and stronger as the day progresses.

I think Cat 3 landfall is quite likely. Conditions are extremely favorable and it will go insane over the Gulf Stream. It could also directly hit the densely populated Southeast Florida metro area. It might even track as far south as Miami. 
 

This is not a minimal hurricane situation at all. This is an extremely powerful hurricane in the making.

[yoda]

34 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

This is gonna be such a good day to be a hurricane meteorologist in Southeast Florida. We’re already getting one intense band after the next, and the hurricane will be rapidly getting closer and stronger as the day progresses.

I think Cat 3 landfall is quite likely. Conditions are extremely favorable and it will go insane over the Gulf Stream. It could also directly hit the densely populated Southeast Florida metro area. It might even track as far south as Miami. 
 

This is not a minimal hurricane situation at all. This is an extremely powerful hurricane in the making.

Better let the NHC know then since their latest disco says barely any strengthening 

[SRRTA22]

35 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

 

 

This is not a minimal hurricane situation at all. This is an extremely powerful hurricane in the making.

Extremely powerful hurricane, y'all!

[NorthHillsWx]

https://radars.bahamasweather.org.bs/

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, turtlehurricane said:

This is gonna be such a good day to be a hurricane meteorologist in Southeast Florida. We’re already getting one intense band after the next, and the hurricane will be rapidly getting closer and stronger as the day progresses.

I think Cat 3 landfall is quite likely. Conditions are extremely favorable and it will go insane over the Gulf Stream. It could also directly hit the densely populated Southeast Florida metro area. It might even track as far south as Miami. 
 

This is not a minimal hurricane situation at all. This is an extremely powerful hurricane in the making.

Seriously? Cat 3 is likely? I’m not seeing it, but your the pro I guess. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Kept it at 70 at 7am

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

[Modfan2]

48 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Seriously? Cat 3 is likely? I’m not seeing it, but your the pro I guess. 

While I agree I don’t see CAT 3 on this; the Gulf Stream here is only 1-10 miles off shore  from West Palm to Ft Pierce so I can see it strengthen to possibly a CAT 2

[olafminesaw]

4 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

While I agree I don’t see CAT 3 on this; the Gulf Stream here is only 1-10 miles off shore  from West Palm to Ft Pierce so I can see it strengthen to possibly a CAT 2

The gulf stream isn't really any warmer than the water Nicole is currently traversing. The warmest waters it will cross will be just before reaching the Bahamas 

[NorthHillsWx]

Dry air and a stable environment are main inhibitors, per NHC. Dry air is extremely easy to see on water vapor 

[CIK62]

Not even an inch for NYC now.      Down from 3", three days ago.      Rains from say, Friday Noon to early Saturday AM.      GFS says T of 70 with strong southerly winds at 4AM Saturday!       45 by Sunday AM.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

The combination of high ocean heat content, Gulf Stream, and notable warm eddies does point towards Category 3 being the ceiling and a real possibility now.