Hurricane Nicole

[NJsnow89]

Going to be in Orlando Wednesday and Thursday. Will there be any issues there?

[Akeem the African Dream]

4 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Going to be in Orlando Wednesday and Thursday. Will there be any issues there?

I would cancel the trip 

[cptcatz]

10 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Going to be in Orlando Wednesday and Thursday. Will there be any issues there?

I think it's a given that Wednesday and Thursday will be a washout at the very least.  There could definitely be bigger issues if this thing is on the stronger side of the models...

[MJO812]

Gfs coming in south and stronger 

[MJO812]

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

50 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs coming in south and stronger 

This isn't completely unlike Kate in 1985 hitting Florida in November.  I was on a ship in Alameda before the internet era, and missed Kate and Gloria.

 

Nothing happened in 1983 in Orlando 32813 when I was there.  But I liked Orlando.  Looking at WxNerds 114 GEFS, most tracks S of MCO.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

50/80 cherry now.

[GaWx]

 1. The last few runs of models all have a TC eventually. So, I don't think we're looking at just the STC option any more.

2. Now that we're closer, it appears that the wx on Election Day will not be that bad in the SE US (other than coastal/marine).

3. However, the models are now all progging a TS or hurricane vs many not doing that before. Any direct impact to the SE US from this wouldn't start before Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday night. IF there really is going to be a hurricane that starts directly impacting FL (SE or further north depending on what track it takes) Wednesday PM and keeping in mind the panic and prep that always occurs 1-2 days before in addition to evacuations, what do folks here think will happen as regards Election Day, which has its own chaos? Wednesday would already be too late for the most part with it starting to come in late that day. Does anyone think it will have to be postponed in (parts of) Florida? Keep in mind that this situation would be totally unprecedented. I've yet to read anything about this.

[AnthonyEC]

Overnight and morning models picking up strength with each run.  Treasure Coast coming into play quickly. 

[nwohweather]

Crazy to see the differences in the major models. Around 100 hours out and it’s a near 30 mb difference in strength between the Euro and GFS. Also the Euro is showing a slightly stronger blizzard for the Northern Plains with its center being in the Dakotas and not Nebraska. 
 

Too much uncertainty for Florida with not a lot of time left on the clock here 

[cptcatz]

7 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Crazy to see the differences in the major models. Around 100 hours out and it’s a near 30 mb difference in strength between the Euro and GFS. Also the Euro is showing a slightly stronger blizzard for the Northern Plains with its center being in the Dakotas and not Nebraska. 
 

Too much uncertainty for Florida with not a lot of time left on the clock here 

At least the track is pretty locked in. At this point in Ian's life the GFS was showing a panhandle/Alabama storm while Euro/UK were showing Naples to Tampa. 

[olafminesaw]

All things considered, a pretty high degree of confidence in a strong system from the EPS. 

[TPAwx]

Gonna need to turn the TB force field back on, had put it on sleep for the season.

 

[jbenedet]

Given the unusually strong nature of the H5 ridge, I believe this TC will make a b-line for southeast Florida without much of any shift in trajectory. I think the speed it tracks to that point will also surprise to the upside —18-20 mph. The uncertainty is highest with what happens after, as recurve begins. 
 

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

I guess I'm back lol. Can't remember the last time I tracked meaningful tropical for the continental US in November. 

I am sure it has been talked about, but the pattern has been highly conducive for tropical or subtropical genesis in November--like historically anomalous. This general mid/upper level pattern has reduced shear just enough alongside a still warm western Atlantic to create brief windows for what we've seen so far this month.

Despite what we'd typically define as a hostile Atlantic, we're once again seeing just enough of a window once again for (S)TC development. This time very close to home.

As a result, we have newly designated Invest 98L. 

 

While it's still messy, it is clearly trying to develop, with surface observations showing an area of low pressure taking shape north of PR. Despite the presence of dry air (which may play a role in tropical vs subtropical designation early on), convection is trying to fire near the apparent center. The latest update from the NHC shows 70% two day and now 90% five day odds of development. That's all pretty straightforward.

As @GaWx pointed out that the start of this thread, the guidance has been nearly unanimous in showing some type of development in the SW Atlantic from this area of disturbed weather. At first, the signal had weaker development that was pushed into FL due to an anomalous ridge over the top. However, in recent runs of operational guidance (which makes sense to use since we're looking at short to medium range activity with 98L), things have trended stronger. This is in large part due to reduced projected shear allowing 98L to better organize.

The large and sprawling low that was modeled in recent days would have brought rain and coastal flooding that coincides with the King Tides. Now we're seeing a trend toward a tighter low, that still brings rain and coastal flooding as the main concerns but increases the risk of strong winds.

If, and this remains an open question, 98L can avoid more hostile shear as it approaches Florida, the still warm waters off the coast creates a sub major hurricane level ceiling IMO. 

 

There are still subtleties on the exact track, but the ensembles target the east coast of Florida before a trough comes in and sweeps whatever 98L becomes northeast. From there, it may become a strong extratropical system, but that's a discussion for another day. 

 

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 1. The last few runs of models all have a TC eventually. So, I don't think we're looking at just the STC option any more.

2. Now that we're closer, it appears that the wx on Election Day will not be that bad in the SE US (other than coastal/marine).

3. However, the models are now all progging a TS or hurricane vs many not doing that before. Any direct impact to the SE US from this wouldn't start before Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday night. IF there really is going to be a hurricane that starts directly impacting FL (SE or further north depending on what track it takes) Wednesday PM and keeping in mind the panic and prep that always occurs 1-2 days before in addition to evacuations, what do folks here think will happen as regards Election Day, which has its own chaos? Wednesday would already be too late for the most part with it starting to come in late that day. Does anyone think it will have to be postponed in (parts of) Florida? Keep in mind that this situation would be totally unprecedented. I've yet to read anything about this.

For #1--I agree. The more organized it becomes, the more likely it takes on tropical characteristics. Obviously hurricanes are tropical. 

For #2--Agree. 

For #3--Even with a higher ceiling, I don't think this looks like a major wind event for most. I do think the coastal flooding may be serious, depending on track and timing. I don't know FL law, but my guess is that for the overwhelming majority of parts impacted by this it'll be business as usual on Election Day. If it were a major hurricane coming in (which I think is highly unlikely) it'd be a different story as you'd need to move polling locations. 

[Akeem the African Dream]

 

[GaWx]

 As was mentioned earlier, there has never been a US election with an Atlantic hurricane threatening a portion of the lower 48 so close to Election Day though PR did have to deal with flooding rainfall from TS Klaus in 1984 on Election Day:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Klaus_(1984)

 Keep these in mind: 
 "A watch is issued when hurricane conditions are a possibility within 48 hours. A warning is issued when a hurricane is expected in an area within 36 hours."

 Based on the possibility of hurricane conditions in parts of FL on Wednesday night, there could easily be not just a H watch but even a H warning already issued on Election Day for part of FL! A watch could be issued Monday night. The implications of this possibility as regards the upcoming election in FL are totally unpredictable when considering preparations as well as the typical chaos several days in advance of a hurricane.

[turtlehurricane]

I feel that this is the one, finally. I’m gonna go crazy. 

[MJO812]

Fwiw Nam ( yes I know it's not a tropical model )

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

21 minutes ago, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said:

Pretty strong consistency run to run for GFS

973 mb landfall a bit N of PBI verbatim

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET landfalls near Stuart, FL, Thursday morning. It then goes WNW across C FL to the NE GOM followed by a sharp recurve to just off the SC coast as a somewhat restrengthening storm (becoming extratropical then?):

 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  24 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 24.7N  69.3W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 07.11.2022   24  24.7N  69.3W     1005            33
    0000UTC 08.11.2022   36  25.9N  70.1W     1003            40
    1200UTC 08.11.2022   48  27.0N  70.8W     1004            34
    0000UTC 09.11.2022   60  27.0N  72.9W     1004            39
    1200UTC 09.11.2022   72  26.1N  75.3W     1002            43
    0000UTC 10.11.2022   84  25.8N  77.4W     1002            40
    1200UTC 10.11.2022   96  26.9N  79.7W     1000            38
    0000UTC 11.11.2022  108  28.0N  82.2W      997            36
    1200UTC 11.11.2022  120  29.1N  83.6W      999            27
    0000UTC 12.11.2022  132  30.6N  82.7W     1000            27
    1200UTC 12.11.2022  144  32.7N  79.2W      997            38

 I'd ignore the wind speed forecast as the UKMET always is too low in the early stages. The track is what is most important.

[Amped]

12Z GFS shows a ridiculous bounce in the track.  23.5N to 29N then back down to 26N.   I expect that will be less pronounced.

[GaWx]

12Z GEFS: 90% of 31 members landfall in FL (all Cape Canaveral southward) centered near West Palm Beach. They landfall between 7AM Wednesday and 7PM Thursday with most at some point Wednesday night and just about all as a cat 1 or 2 hurricane.

[Windspeed]

A region of favorable divergence and low shear aloft will be available to this system if the core placement cooperates. The GFS may look overdone on intensity, but there is an actual scenario that this could be a decent hurricane. Again, the track has to unfold and position with a region of cold pool aloft and low shear. The SSTs are plenty warm enough to sustain intensification even as a major hurricane, though obviously that is a low probability as the core may be inland over the peninsula before it could max out. A purely tropical strong TS to Cat 1 hurricane is certainly looking more and more likely versus a hybrid system now however. The system should at least have some length of time for it to organize as such prior to interaction with land.

[GaWx]

1. 12Z HWRF landfalls at Stuart, FL, like the 12Z UKMET but 12 hours earlier (7PM Wednesday) and as a cat 2 H.
 

2. More aggressive wording on 2PM TWO vs 8AM with it saying a "storm" is likely to form rather than just a depression:

Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located more than 200 miles north of Puerto
Rico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move northward and then
northwestward into the southwestern Atlantic where environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a
subtropical or tropical storm is likely to form in the next day or
so. The system is then forecast to turn westward or
west-southwestward over the southwestern Atlantic by the middle part
of this week where additional development is possible.

Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal
flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf,
and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States
coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and
northwestern Bahamas beginning in the early to middle part of this
week. Interests in those areas should continue to monitor the
progress of this system as tropical storm, hurricane, and storm
surge watches could be required for a portion of these areas by
early Monday. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service and in products from your local weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[GaWx]

12Z Euro landfalls at 96 near Stuart at 998 mb. Almost identical to 12Z UKMET on timing and location.
 
I'd bet heavily on it actually landfalling stronger than 998 mb.

Edit: Then the 12Z Euro recurves much more sharply than recent runs and ends up in NE FL at 120 followed by a strengthening to 992 mb just off Delmarva at 144 as a big nor'easter. So, this storm looks to be a major wx maker from FL through the NE US.

[GaWx]

32 minutes ago, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said:

Question for those of you who have been around the block longer than I have. Say the GFS solution or close to it actualized. As someone who lives in Tampa, would I expect a hurricane warning or just TS? I operate a hotel right on the bay that has to evacuate for any hurricane warnings. Ordering product when these threats are around is always a challenge.

Way too early to tell. If this were to come into the east coast as a cat 2, it could. I think a cat 2 or even cat 3 at the extreme is a realistic possibility coming into the east coast of FL considering the strong gradient due to the very strong NE high as well as based on the history of WSW/westward moving hurricanes off the SE coast below a strong ridge and considering very warm (above normal) SSTs in the SW Atlantic along with the possibility of very low shear for Nov. If there is a GFS track, that could get your area a hurricane warning for potential cat 1 winds assuming enough speed of movement across FL.

[turtlehurricane]

The weather here has shifted drastically throughout the past 24 hours. Heavy rain showers coming off the ocean are becoming increasingly frequent, plus it is quite breezy. 
 

This whole week is basically gonna be a hurricane situation, and the weather is already setting the mood.

Im quite excited to see how this pans out on satellite, it seems to be a hybrid super-storm situation.

[olafminesaw]

Stronger

[Akeem the African Dream]

looks awful

like a typical November gale