Hurricane Nicole

[GaWx]

 The models are pretty much unanimous on a complex storm system forming this weekend in the NE Caribbean or the SW Atlantic, which could then move NW to the SE US next week per model consensus. Subtropical and/or tropical cyclone development is very possible, if not likely. Thus, this could conceivably have a significant effect on SE US weather, especially near the Atlantic coast, on Election Day. This is from the 2PM TWO:

 

1. Southwestern Atlantic:
A complex, non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to develop 
this weekend over the northeastern Caribbean Sea or the 
southwestern Atlantic. Some slow subtropical or tropical 
development of this system is possible afterward while it moves 
generally northward to northwestward through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[GaWx]

 The 18Z GEFS is still another run that suggests significant effects (rain and wind) quite possible over E FL on US Election Day, something that could reduce turnout. Reduction % in turnout due to wx tends to not be equal for all sides. Thus it could have a significant effect on the outcome of close races.

 I looked back every two years to see if there were any previous US Election Days marred by an Atlantic basin tropical or subtropical cyclone. I found none affecting the lower 48 states. But I did find 1984's TS Klaus (see link below) that directly affected PR on Election Day (11/6). So, this system could make history in the lower 48 as very likely the first Atlantic TC or STC affecting a portion on Election Day.

 1984's Klaus track is here:

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Nothing crazy but some 6Z ECEN support  GFS 6Z means seems to bring heaviest rain near the coast after Election Day.

[GaWx]

 From NWS Charleston, SC: gales and moderate to major coastal flooding possible Mon-Wed for SC/GA and this may occur even if there is no actual STC or TC:

---

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING  
 
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS ARE RISING AS FULL MOON ON NOVEMBER  
8TH APPROACHES. ADDITIONALLY, PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG  
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CAUSE TIDAL ANAMOLIES TO INCREASE. BY EARLY  
NEXT WEEK AN EVEN STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW COULD PRODUCE  
SUBSTANTIAL ANOMALIES THAT MAY RESULT IN MODERATE TO MAJOR  
COASTAL FLOODING AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAUGE.  
 
COASTAL FLOODING COULD BEGIN TODAY ALONG COASTAL CHARLESTON AND  
COLLETON COUNTIES AND AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FAR  
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND MUCH OF THE GEORGIA COAST. THE MORE  
SIGNIFICANT TIDE LEVELS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING  
AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL  
FLOOD ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLY COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY  
WILL BE NEEDED.  

[MJO812]

23 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Nothing crazy but some 6Z ECEN support  GFS 6Z means seems to bring heaviest rain near the coast after Election Day.

Gfs hits florida

[GaWx]

 Beside the just noted 12Z GFS landfalling at Jupiter, FL, late Thursday with a H,  the 12Z CMC and UKMET both have a NW moving TS centered near Cape Canaveral at hour 144 (Thursday morning). Here is the 12Z UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  90 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 26.1N  71.5W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 08.11.2022   96  26.0N  72.6W     1007            32
    0000UTC 09.11.2022  108  25.3N  74.0W     1007            35
    1200UTC 09.11.2022  120  26.2N  75.1W     1006            39
    0000UTC 10.11.2022  132  27.0N  78.1W     1004            40
    1200UTC 10.11.2022  144  28.5N  80.8W     1003            42

[jbenedet]

The weather pattern over the eastern CONUS over the next 7 days looks like it will be way above normal for early November. The tenor will look more like early October. As a result, I say whatever does develop has a much higher chance of being purely tropical. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

The weather pattern over the eastern CONUS over the next 7 days looks like it will be way above normal for early November. The tenor will look more like early October. As a result, I say whatever does develop has a much higher chance of being purely tropical. 

Well to the W of the SC, but HOU 80sF temp/70sF DPs is more like October or early June than November.  Post 'front', temps still forecast in the 80s.  GFS has this briefly symmetric and warm core.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

The weather pattern over the eastern CONUS over the next 7 days looks like it will be way above normal for early November. The tenor will look more like early October. As a result, I say whatever does develop has a much higher chance of being purely tropical. 

 Model consensus is forecasting 500 mb heights that are as high as 2.5 SD above the mean for early November in the NE US Wednesday night. That is equivalent to saying 500 mb hts that are at the 99% percentile meaning hts that high or higher in early November there happen only 1% of the time.

 With that strong of a high to the north, the SW Atlantic/Bahamas/SE US is in a highly unusual pattern for early November as regards tropical potential. With only 8 TCs having formed since 1851 in the SW Atlantic Nov 1-10 (see link below) and considering this highly anomalous pattern, there's not much historical track data/climo to utilize to predict what will happen. So even though none of those 8 SW Atlantic originating TCs hit the US, that doesn't mean much in this very unusual pattern:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/nov_1_10.png

 If we incorporate the current SW Atlantic SSTs, we get even further from normal early Nov tropical potential. They're currently 28 to 29 C (82-84 F), which is ~1C/2F warmer than the normal and near the normal for mid October (normal found here):

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/SST/AL_10_OCT_1971-2000_RSST.gif

 Along with this very strong H5 ridge to the north and warm SSTAs, 200 mb wind speeds are forecasted to plunge well below normal early to mid next week in the SW Atlantic. So, shear may become unusually light then.

 Considering all of the above, the NHC has quite a challenge and will make forecasting discussions quite interesting.

[marsman]

Wonder if NASA's gonna roll Artemis back to the VAB. Launch is scheduled for early morning on Monday the 14th.

[Normandy]

Extremely anomalous setup with a westward moving TC strike on Florida in November

[GaWx]

 The 12Z UKMET, which as mentioned has a TS hitting Cape Canaveral at 144 moving NW, has at 168 a still well organized low S of Macon, GA, moving N. At that time, it's rain shield expands greatly with moderate to heavy rains all of the way from the NE GOM to Atlanta to SW PA, east to DC, and south to most of VA and NC. This is ahead of a rapidly SEward moving strong cold front that extends from Ohio to TX. If it ends up playing out similarly, this could end up a major event for much of the E US.

[Normandy]

I like a solution of getting close to FL and then getting shoved NE-NNE.  Strong front coming in to sweep it up.

[olafminesaw]

It's pretty simple really...the GFS is on crack. A fairly weak low tracking across Florida, into the gulf, bringing areas of heavy rain, makes the most sense.

[cptcatz]

8 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

It's pretty simple really...the GFS is on crack. A fairly weak low tracking across Florida, into the gulf, bringing areas of heavy rain, makes the most sense.

All year GFS and Euro have been meeting half way. Now with GFS showing 982mb and Euro showing 1006mb, mark my words here that it will be 994mb.

[ineedsnow]

18z GFS even stronger now

[MJO812]

29 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z GFS even stronger now

Trough  picks it up

[GaWx]

Now up to 50% in the 5 day:

8PM TWO

 Southwestern Atlantic:
A large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop
across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic by
the latter part of the weekend. The system is initially expected to
be very broad and disorganized. However, it could begin to acquire
subtropical or tropical characteristics during the early part of
next week, and a subtropical or tropical depression could form
during the early to middle portion of next week while the system
moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the southwestern
Atlantic. Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of
coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and
beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast,
the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern
Bahamas during the early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[ROOSTA]

GFS 18z: 
Looks tropical, looks like it has an eye. 
The worst-case scenario for East Central Florida.
Thankfully a week out.

  

[StantonParkHoya]

53 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

GFS 18z: 
Looks tropical, looks like it has an eye. 
The worst-case scenario for East Central Florida.
Thankfully a week out.

  

I can think of a lot worse case scenarios. This is a TS at best. More likely a sub trop deal.

[cptcatz]

^I suppose a 977mb storm would be the worst case scenario for a mid-November sloppy subtropical system...

Anyways, the ensembles are just as bullish as the GFS operational.

[LoboLeader1]

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Op GFS has backed down a lot on intensity, but it looks like something is going to happen.  ECENS not as enthusiastic, of course.

[MJO812]

37 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Op GFS has backed down a lot on intensity, but it looks like something is going to happen.  ECENS not as enthusiastic, of course.

Not this run

[jbenedet]

The +3SD H5 Ridge that builds over the eastern CONUS going to keep this south, with a west heading, Miami dade county to keys looks most interesting, then into the gulf before next H5 trough picks it up north. 
 

GEFS and EPS in strong agreement on this, general outcome. Sell the other guidance tracking this north into the SE coast.

[GaWx]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022

1. Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is 
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
The trough is forecast to move northward over the southwestern 
Atlantic by Sunday, where a broad area of low pressure is expected 
to form north of Hispaniola.  Environmental conditions are forecast 
to be conducive for gradual development, and a subtropical or 
tropical depression could form during the early part of next week 
while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over 
the southwestern Atlantic.  Regardless of development, there is an 
increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy 
rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the 
southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and 
portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during the early 
to middle part of next week.  The disturbance is also expected to 
bring locally heavy rainfall to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands 
this weekend.  Interests in those areas should monitor the progress 
of this system.     
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[MJO812]

[Lars]

[MJO812]

[Akeem the African Dream]

should be a pretty decent coastal flooding event here imho