SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 7 hours ago, Weather Mike said: When do you think there will be a good consensus on where the main LES will form ? thanks Probably about as close to a call as you’ll get right now. Might see some small flips and flops but immediate metro area looks to be best bet. Some options right across street from airport. Also a hotel near the Walden Galleria mall a little south of there and then even a little more south in West Seneca some places near the I90 exit. If you have any questions on places or the area toss them up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2022 Author Share Posted November 15, 2022 These globals have been consistent for days. GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2022 Author Share Posted November 15, 2022 GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2022 Author Share Posted November 15, 2022 These are 1:10 ratios.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Depends if your coming up to camp outside the band and try and venture into or if your looking to setup shop under the band and be in ground zero. If it’s a 2 footer or less things will be cleared up fairly quickly to leave town but if we’re going to experience extreme rates like in Nov 14 you will likely become stranded for some time, possibly more than a day. Also important to note the main thruways will all likely be closed just prior to and following the storm. This does look like it’s going to be a big one, if you can get the time off I would highly recommend the trip up. I’m going to do what I can, all depends on work schedule Thanks all! Most snow I ever saw in one event was around 30”. I couldn’t imagine how awesome an experience of 2-4” rates and 36-48” would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 22, 2022 Author Share Posted November 22, 2022 Long range starting to look better, looks slightly above normal for the next week or so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 22, 2022 Author Share Posted November 22, 2022 Nov Temps: BUF: +2.4 ROC: +1.6 WAT: +3.1 SYR: +4.7 BING: +3.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 Sizzlecuse living up to the name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 On November 19, 2022, Buffalo picked up 21.5" daily snowfall during a 4-day lake effect snowstorm that deposited 36.6" of snow. The average highest daily snowfall during the snow season has been increasing in recent years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 22, 2022 Author Share Posted November 22, 2022 25 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: On November 19, 2022, Buffalo picked up 21.5" daily snowfall during a 4-day lake effect snowstorm that deposited 36.6" of snow. The average highest daily snowfall during the snow season has been increasing in recent years. Awesome data thanks don! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 22, 2022 Author Share Posted November 22, 2022 On 11/12/2022 at 6:33 PM, cny rider said: I don't want to go too far out on a limb here but thinking that 54 inches on Tug may not verify. Looks like the crazy model outputs were correct this time! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 22, 2022 Author Share Posted November 22, 2022 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: On November 19, 2022, Buffalo picked up 21.5" daily snowfall during a 4-day lake effect snowstorm that deposited 36.6" of snow. The average highest daily snowfall during the snow season has been increasing in recent years. The recording station changed in 1940 from right along the lakeshore to where it currently is at the Buffalo airport. That has a lot to do with this dataset. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The recording station changed in 1940 from right along the lakeshore to where it currently is at the Buffalo airport. That has a lot to do with this dataset. Thanks for this information. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 23, 2022 Author Share Posted November 23, 2022 Lake Erie was at 45 degrees yesterday, 2 degrees below normal. Lake dropped 9 degrees since Weds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2022 Author Share Posted November 25, 2022 Going farther into the extended forecast, the system that passes Wednesday night may be the first push at really changing the long wave pattern over North America. As that system`s mid-level reflection pushes toward northern Quebec by the end of the week, a potential Fujiwhara interaction seems set to occur as a sub-490 dam 500 hPa low begins to amble southward from the far northern islands of Nunavut toward the eastern Northwest Territories. GEFS ensemble forecasts for teleconnection patterns offer some suggestion of a pattern change going into December, with the NAO and AO trending negative. All the while cold air will be pooling across much of Canada, so if the high latitude pattern changes do indeed start to influence the mid latitudes, a colder pattern may be on the horizon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2022 Author Share Posted November 25, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2022 Author Share Posted November 29, 2022 Next few weeks we see a stout -NAO with the PNA eventually going neutral. This results in the colder air out west slowly moving eastward over time. Not a terrible look starting around Dec 6th-7th. We will have chances of snow from around that date and onward for most of December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2022 Author Share Posted November 29, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2022 Author Share Posted November 29, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow22 Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 IF we can get anything near what the OP GFS is showing at the end of its run (yes pure fantasy land) then I would be ecstatic. That low retrograding into or just south of Hudson Bay would open up some serious lake effect opportunities during a good portion of that stretch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 Windy today with some LES setting up across southern tier and tug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 1, 2022 Author Share Posted December 1, 2022 Since I finally got over 1k subs I am able to livestream on youtube now! I did my first tonight with some intense LES off Erie. Got a good clip of some thundersnow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Geneva actually getting lake effect snow? What is this!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 1, 2022 Author Share Posted December 1, 2022 Some heavy graupel here tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 1, 2022 Author Share Posted December 1, 2022 Picked up an inch last night up to 79.9" on the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 2, 2022 Author Share Posted December 2, 2022 LES chase last night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 2, 2022 Author Share Posted December 2, 2022 Nov Temps: BUF: +2.3 ROC: +1.9 WAT: +3.0 SYR: +4.7 BING: +3.2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 5, 2022 Author Share Posted December 5, 2022 In a general sense, a -AO/-NAO pattern increases the likelihood of impactful winter weather in the northeast US, but in this case it is also coupled with a -PNA pattern, which favors cold to be focused more in the Northwest US and northern Plains with seasonable warmth favored on average in the eastern US. Model guidance continues to show considerable uncertainty starting next weekend with significant run to run swings in the handling of synoptic scale details, which is to be expected in a large scale pattern such as this. This will likely continue in the coming days as model guidance attempts to distill this low predictability pattern. Any one model run should be taken with a grain of salt in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2022 Author Share Posted December 7, 2022 Bills snow game next weekend? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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