Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!

[BuffaloWeather]

3 minutes ago, Geez150 said:

Buffalo, could you send me an invite? As for the weather,  makes me a little nervous with the possibility of getting all that snow this early. No way will it stay cold enough long enough.  I can see flooding taking place.

check pms

[BuffaloWeather]

The 12z runs went even crazier for this event. 55" at 1:10 over Buffalo with 5.56" of QPF

GFS

[BuffaloWeather]

GEM is very similar with amounts with 5-6" of QPF, slightly further south

[BuffaloWeather]

I don't think I've ever seen globals spit out that much QPF for a LES event in all my years following it. 

[BuffaloWeather]

UK spitting out similar totals but a little further inland. Winds don't look very high so inland penetration will not be extreme.

[BuffaloWeather]

Local weather starting to talk about it

 

[BuffaloWeather]

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Euro showing more realistic QPF amounts, still a very big event.

[Weather Mike]

36 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Euro showing more realistic QPF amounts, still a very big event.

When do you think there will be a good consensus on where the main LES will form ? 
 

thanks 

[BuffaloWeather]

KBUF is confident enough to have a watch 3 days before event starts, very rare. 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations
  in a long duration event of 1 to 2 feet or more are possible in
  the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming counties.

* WHEN...From Thursday evening through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...The potential remains for a significant long duration
  lake effect snow event Thursday night through much of the
  weekend. There is still considerable uncertainty in exact band
  placement and amounts, but multiple periods of heavy snow are
  possible, including across the Buffalo metro area.

[BuffaloWeather]

3 minutes ago, Weather Mike said:

When do you think there will be a good consensus on where the main LES will form ? 
 

thanks 

First band forms Thursday. Heaviest stuff is Fri/Sat. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Updated FD:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
...IMPACTFUL LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD...

No change in available model output and overall H85 and H5 pattern
for late this week into the weekend. There remains high confidence
that a prolonged southwest flow lake effect event will take place
during this period. A deep longwave trough...featuring a vertically
stacked low in the vicinity of Hudson Bay...will keep a flow of
seasonably cold air in place over the Lower Great Lakes through the
weekend to GUARANTEE a lake response. The `formula` for significant
lake snow will then come down to whether there is ample synoptic
moisture to work with...and of course the direction of the H85
steering flow. Consensus of both ensemble and deterministic guidance
packages are in fairly strong agreement of a southwest flow...but
placement of accumulating snow bands will have to be further defined
as the event nears. Continues to look like KBUF and KART metro areas
and their northern suburbs (at least for a time) are favored.

This event has some historical precedence, with CIPS analogs
comparing to Nov 20, 2000, when many became stranded in their
vehicles...or the twin storms that made `Snow-vember` infamous with
over five feet of snow? While at this point it is impossible to
suggest the same for the upcoming event...it is something to keep in
mind. Speaking of correlations...local studies from the KBUF office
does show some stark similarities in the synoptic pattern for these
larger events. The largest events have near stationary plumes of
snow...but it is still way too early to get that detailed.

In the wake of a passing shortwave ridge on Thursday...subtle
troughing embedded within in the larger scale longwave pattern will
produce a deep southwest flow of cold air across Lakes Erie and
Ontario. There is a suggestion that the flow will generally be 250-
260 Thursday evening...but with the lakes still relatively warm (nr
of abv 10c)...that flow could back some 10 deg over Lake Erie.
During the course of Thursday night and Friday...the flow is
forecast to back a bit...and this will send well organized lake snow
plumes across the Buffalo and Watertown metro areas and potentially
into the northern suburbs. Again, placement of these bands will
depend on the exact H85 flow...but a southwest (240-250) flow is
being favored by guidance at this time. Given the expected presence
of moisture up to arnd H7...snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr is becoming
more plausible. Details still have to be refined, but there was
enough signal and consistency in model guidance to issue winter
storm watches Thursday evening through Sunday evening for a
potential high impact, long duration lake snow event. If winds back
further for longer period of time, then Niagara and Orleans counties
would need to be put in a watch as well. Those details can be sorted
out next couple days though.

While the steering flow will likely oscillate somewhat during the
course of the weekend and into early next week...a cold southwest
flow is mainly what is being shown by most of the guidance packages.
This would keep lake snows in place to the northeast of both lakes
with additional significant accumulations possible at times even
beyond when initial watch ends.

[BuffaloWeather]

Thursday

Snow showers likely before 11am, then rain and snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Thursday Night

Snow showers. Low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Friday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Friday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Saturday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 29. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Saturday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Sunday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 29. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Sunday Night

A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday

A chance of snow showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

[Heisy]

Thursday Snow showers likely before 11am, then rain and snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Thursday Night Snow showers. Low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Friday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 29. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 29. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Monday A chance of snow showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Been wanting to chase a LES event for a long time. I’ve been all over the country for major events, but for some reason LES hasn’t worked out. I work Friday but could possibly call out/switch my schedule around and get there from Thursday-Saturday. Contemplating it heh.


.

[eyewall]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Been wanting to chase a LES event for a long time. I’ve been all over the country for major events, but for some reason LES hasn’t worked out. I work Friday but could possibly call out/switch my schedule around and get there from Thursday-Saturday. Contemplating it heh.


.

This seems like one you might want to go for.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

7 minutes ago, eyewall said:

This seems like one you might want to go for.

 

Yeah this might be the one. Obviously want to get closer with the higher res stuff to give more clarity.

[BuffaloWeather]

WPC

...Great Lakes... Days 1-3... A long duration of heavy Lake Effect Snow (LES) is likely to begin Wednesday and persist beyond this forecast period. The amplified trough swinging eastward through the Great Lakes and into New England which will drive the nor'easter in New England will leave broad cyclonic flow in its wake with pronounced CAA. Additionally, weak spokes of vorticity will continually rotate eastward within this cyclonic flow to enhance deep layer ascent, with each one driving a supplemental surface trough eastward. These will enhance CAA, and 850mb temps are progged to fall to -8C to -12C, while lake surface temps remain +8 to +14C according to GLERL, highest in Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. This will produce an increasingly favorable environment with steep low level lapse rates to produce sufficient instability, deepening inversion depths, and plentiful moisture to support LES. Minor wind trajectory differences will significantly impact the placement of these bands and subsequent snowfall, but it does appear a significant LES event will begin, especially on D3, and most pronounced downstream of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, but significant snowfall is also likely on the less typical western side of the Lakes on Tuesday before a surface trough swings the flow to NW. WPC probabilities on D2 feature a moderate risk for more than 4 inches west of Lake Superior, Michigan, and Huron, with locally more than 8 inches possible near Alpena, MI. By D3, The flow becomes more typical and pronounced for LES, with WPC probabilities for more than 4 inches exceeding 40% in the western U.P., southwest lower Michigan, and downstream of Lake Erie and Ontario, with locally more than 12 inches likely along the Chautauqua Ridge and into the Tug Hill Plateau. While heavy snow will begin on Thursday downstream of the Lakes, this could become a major, long duration, LES event for parts of these areas into the medium range.

[BuffaloWeather]

The analogs are all the historically big storms for BUF

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F084&rundt=2022111412&map=thbCOOP72

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F084&rundt=2022111412&map=tbl

[cleetussnow]

Checking in and seeing this.  wow.  8 years to the DAY...if this wasn't already mentioned...

Lake Effect Summary: November 17-19, 2014 (weather.gov)

[Heisy]

Yeah this might be the one. Obviously want to get closer with the higher res stuff to give more clarity.

I could leave late Wednesday and drive there all night. If I’m able to call out Friday then I wouldn’t work again until Sunday at 6pm which I probably wouldn’t be able to move. I don’t know if it’s possible to get back to Philly by Sunday. Are they able to clear the roads to make them at least passable to get outside the LES effected region? I own a normal sedan. Unless I decide to rent a truck/SUV.


.

[cleetussnow]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I could leave late Wednesday and drive there all night. If I’m able to call out Friday then I wouldn’t work again until Sunday at 6pm which I probably wouldn’t be able to move. I don’t know if it’s possible to get back to Philly by Sunday. Are they able to clear the roads to make them at least passable to get outside the LES effected region? I own a normal sedan. Unless I decide to rent a truck/SUV.


.

Don't count on the roads being clear in any particular place for any period of time, SUV or not.  I have a 2500 with big tires and I've been SOL in that.  It's hard to predict what areas get smoked.

But this is the nature of the chase.  You are going toward the shooting, not running from it.  Expect incoming rounds or you are doing it wrong!

[Superstorm]

Yeah, especially when those snow bands extend far northeast. You can get locked in.


.

[BuffaloWeather]

#1 analog showing up on CIPS

[BuffaloWeather]

Tom Niziol responded to my tweet.

 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

 

[BuffaloWeather]

 

[BuffaloWeather]

 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

4 hours ago, Heisy said:

I could leave late Wednesday and drive there all night. If I’m able to call out Friday then I wouldn’t work again until Sunday at 6pm which I probably wouldn’t be able to move. I don’t know if it’s possible to get back to Philly by Sunday. Are they able to clear the roads to make them at least passable to get outside the LES effected region? I own a normal sedan. Unless I decide to rent a truck/SUV.


.

Depends if your coming up to camp outside the band and try and venture into or if your looking to setup shop under the band and be in ground zero.  If it’s a 2 footer or less things will be cleared up fairly quickly to leave town but if we’re going to experience extreme rates like in Nov 14 you will likely become stranded for some time, possibly more than a day.  Also important to note the main thruways will all likely be closed just prior to and following the storm.  This does look like it’s going to be a big one, if you can get the time off I would highly recommend the trip up.  

[Thinksnow22]

5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Updated FD:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
...IMPACTFUL LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD...

No change in available model output and overall H85 and H5 pattern
for late this week into the weekend. There remains high confidence
that a prolonged southwest flow lake effect event will take place
during this period. A deep longwave trough...featuring a vertically
stacked low in the vicinity of Hudson Bay...will keep a flow of
seasonably cold air in place over the Lower Great Lakes through the
weekend to GUARANTEE a lake response. The `formula` for significant
lake snow will then come down to whether there is ample synoptic
moisture to work with...and of course the direction of the H85
steering flow. Consensus of both ensemble and deterministic guidance
packages are in fairly strong agreement of a southwest flow...but
placement of accumulating snow bands will have to be further defined
as the event nears. Continues to look like KBUF and KART metro areas
and their northern suburbs (at least for a time) are favored.

This event has some historical precedence, with CIPS analogs
comparing to Nov 20, 2000, when many became stranded in their
vehicles...or the twin storms that made `Snow-vember` infamous with
over five feet of snow? While at this point it is impossible to
suggest the same for the upcoming event...it is something to keep in
mind. Speaking of correlations...local studies from the KBUF office
does show some stark similarities in the synoptic pattern for these
larger events. The largest events have near stationary plumes of
snow...but it is still way too early to get that detailed.

In the wake of a passing shortwave ridge on Thursday...subtle
troughing embedded within in the larger scale longwave pattern will
produce a deep southwest flow of cold air across Lakes Erie and
Ontario. There is a suggestion that the flow will generally be 250-
260 Thursday evening...but with the lakes still relatively warm (nr
of abv 10c)...that flow could back some 10 deg over Lake Erie.
During the course of Thursday night and Friday...the flow is
forecast to back a bit...and this will send well organized lake snow
plumes across the Buffalo and Watertown metro areas and potentially
into the northern suburbs. Again, placement of these bands will
depend on the exact H85 flow...but a southwest (240-250) flow is
being favored by guidance at this time. Given the expected presence
of moisture up to arnd H7...snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr is becoming
more plausible. Details still have to be refined, but there was
enough signal and consistency in model guidance to issue winter
storm watches Thursday evening through Sunday evening for a
potential high impact, long duration lake snow event. If winds back
further for longer period of time, then Niagara and Orleans counties
would need to be put in a watch as well. Those details can be sorted
out next couple days though.

While the steering flow will likely oscillate somewhat during the
course of the weekend and into early next week...a cold southwest
flow is mainly what is being shown by most of the guidance packages.
This would keep lake snows in place to the northeast of both lakes
with additional significant accumulations possible at times even
beyond when initial watch ends.

240-250 is dead center metro-airport. I do like how they mention that subtle 10 degree or so shift due to the warm lake waters making it a more 230-240. I think at them end of it all many places end up 18-24” with a jackpot of 40” plus somewhere between Airport and Blasdell 

[BuffaloWeather]

Reeds coming!