Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Lock it in

[WxWatcher007]

20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Lock it in

lol what?

[BuffaloWeather]

Heading into the weekend, the air mass aloft will become cold enough
(model 850mb temperatures range from -10 to -14) to support a lake
response. Model guidance packages from 11/00Z, 11/12Z, and 12/00Z
continue to support unidirectional vertical wind profile in the
lower levels along with the cold temperatures aloft to support lake
snows east/northeast of both lakes. Despite the model continuity,
this event remains in the farthest reaches of the forecast and
therefore the mesoscale features are yet to be well represented this
far out. But as of right now, there is high potential for lake
effect snow east and northeast of both lakes Erie and Ontario
Saturday through Sunday.

[Stash]

It isn't much compared to what some of those experienced last month in Western NY, but there was a nice little storm for those of us in eastern areas of Upstate yesterday.  Around 7" here, and 6.6" officially in ALB I believe.  It was roughly a 12-hour event, with rates briefly tickling around an inch per hour at its height.  Just enough to make the roads messy, but also enough to help get into the holiday mood.  

[BuffaloWeather]

33 minutes ago, Stash said:

It isn't much compared to what some of those experienced last month in Western NY, but there was a nice little storm for those of us in eastern areas of Upstate yesterday.  Around 7" here, and 6.6" officially in ALB I believe.  It was roughly a 12-hour event, with rates briefly tickling around an inch per hour at its height.  Just enough to make the roads messy, but also enough to help get into the holiday mood.  

Check your pms stash.

[BuffaloWeather]

A storm system moving out of the Plains has the potential to bring
a variety of wintry precipitation Thursday into Friday. Most of the
precipitation should fall as snow, but some rain, sleet or freezing
rain may also mix it. Several inches of heavy wet snow is possible
along with minor ice accumulations.

There is the potential for significant lake effect snow this
weekend. There is still considerable uncertainty in the exact
placement of the lake effect bands and amounts, but it is possible
there will be periods of heavy snow across southern Erie and Wyoming
counties, as well as the western Southern Tier.

[Buffalo Bumble]

4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Check your pms stash.

Childish I know, but this made me lol. Read it slowly…

[BuffaloWeather]

Although synoptic precip east of Lake Ontario pulls northeast of the
area Saturday, mid and upper level cyclonic flow and deeper synoptic
moisture will remain in place through this weekend, which will only
further support the development of potentially heavy lake effect
snow downwind of the Lakes. ***At this time*** the overall flow
looks to average 250-260 degrees Saturday through Sunday, directing
lake effect plumes E/ENE of the Lakes through much of the weekend.
That said, the mid and upper level low is not in the ideal
climatological position with it being centered over the upper Great
Lakes on Saturday. Would like to see it displaced further north,
however still looks favorable synoptically. Upstream lake
connections will also play important roles. In addition, the center
of the upper low will drift east through the weekend with several
shortwaves pinwheeling through the main upper trough that will
likely both enhance lake snows from time to time, but also disrupt
wind flow at times causing the bands to temporarily shift. This
could limit accumulations in any one location at least providing
some breaks in the activity. Upper level low slowly shifts east to
just north of the area Sunday before shifting east across New
England Sunday night. This will veer boundary layer flow some with
lake snows shifting more due east of Lakes Sunday night. High
pressure, drier air and increased shear will start to build in for
the start of the new work week which should start to weaken lake
snows on Monday. All of this said, timing and location of the LE
snows will continue to be refined as we get closer to the actual
start of the event, especially as higher res model data starts to be
included.

[BuffaloWeather]

Looks like snowstorm followed by LES for upstate this week

Snowstorm:

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
...Snow and ice possible Thursday with several inches of snow
Thursday night into Friday eastern areas...

High amplitude pattern with omega block to start will bring a
complex winter weather scenario to our region starting late
Wednesday night and lasting through Friday. Then into the weekend,
lake effect takes focus and that is covered in the long term potion
of the discussion.

General model agreement in large picture. Broad large upper low over
the central Plains with occluded sfc low slowly moves across the
Great Lakes through Friday. Occluded front ahead of the low and very
moist isentropic ascent along that front will bring a slug of
widespread precipitation into far southwest NYS late Wednesday
night, spreading across rest of the forecast area on Thursday from
west to east. Due to strong high pressure ridge centered over
Quebec, it likely takes until late afternoon until any precipitation
reaches the eastern Lake Ontario region. That high will be a big
player in ptype, which flat out is quite the mess, especially
Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon. Warm air aloft along
the occluded front with some guidance showing warm layer at H85-H8
as warm as +5c will be flowing atop temps at the sfc that will be
sub-freezing (25-30 on average) thanks to easterly flow out of the
high. At first glance, a freezing rain scenario if one had to pick
just one ptype. No can do though as some guidance is colder and
would favor more sleet and even snow for a while before changeover.
Thus the forecast has pretty much all winter types in it right now.
Risk for freezing rain and icing of up to two-tenths of an inch is
highest over inland portions of western NY down across the
Southern Tier while lower elevations that could see wintry mix
earlier on Thursday should switch to rain with downslope se flow
warming near sfc temps enough. Once you get east of the Genesee
valley and maybe even slightly west of there, mainly just snow
for ptype as this warm layer stays at bay to the west.

Now, come mid to late afternoon, the ptype evolution changes as
in a Miller type B fashion the main focus for low-level
cyclogenesis will shift to along the Carolinas. By that time,
warm nose aloft pretty much disappears so that any ptype issues
late Thursday afternoon onward will be function of near sfc
temps as aloft, it will be mainly a snow scenario. By sunset
Thursday evening, best chance for several inches of snow would
be centered on the Genesee valley while best chance for ice
would be in areas highlighted earlier. Elsewhere, a messy mix
will lead to minor snow and ice amounts. These are just
estimations right now and caution is advised that with such a
dynamic system, ptype and amounts of snow and ice could change
from this forecast. A couple of alternate scenarios would be if
the warm layer is quicker to diminish or not as strong in the
first place that would lead to more snow on the front side of
this system. Or, if the warm layer hangs on longer, then that
would result in more ice at least inland from the lakes. Will be
something to watch as we get closer.

Thursday night the main emphasis will shift to the Finger Lakes and
eastern Lake Ontario region. Snow will be the main ptype by then and
there could be several inches of heavy wet snow into Friday. Lower
elevations will still see a mix of rain/snow which would limit snow
accums. CIPS analogs and probability guidance hits the terrain in a
swath from western Finger Lakes to the Adirondacks and on to the
south and east for the heaviest snow potential. Meanwhile back west
over western NY expect a chance of rain/snow with minimal snow
accumulations as main focus will be off to the east. Expect highs in
the lower to middle 30s higher terrain and upper 30s lower
elevations.

[BuffaloWeather]

Lake Effect

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Confidence continues to increase that the coastal system to end the
week will be followed by the potential for an impactful lake effect
snow event this weekend, mainly E and NE of the Lakes.

Coastal low will continue to strengthen as it moves slowly NE across
eastern New England Friday night, before moving NNE through far
eastern Maine on Saturday. Colder air will get drawn into the region
Friday night in the wake of the occluded FROPA with any lingering
mixed precipitation going over to all snow across western and
northcentral NY. Airmass aloft then grows cold enough aloft to
support a lake response starting late Friday night with lake effect
snow expected to begin off the E/NE end of Lake Erie. Meanwhile
widespread synoptic snows associated with the coastal low continue
east of Lake Ontario.

Primary area of synoptic precip east of Lake Ontario pulls northeast
of the area Saturday but mid and upper level cyclonic flow and
deeper synoptic moisture remain in place through this weekend while
it just grows colder aloft to support lake effect snow. All of this
will only further support the development of potentially heavy lake
effect snow downwind of the Lakes. At this point, the overall large
scale synoptic pattern and local climatological analogs are not
quite ideal for a *sustained* SW flow lake effect event. It
seems to start that way later Saturday into Saturday night but
by later in the weekend flow veers enough to put emphasis to
south of Buffalo into the Southern Tier and eventually more on
the Tug Hill instead of Watertown/Fort Drum. CIPS analogs and
local guidance seem to favor those areas favored by more 260
flow as seeing the greatest chances for longer duration
significant lake effect this weekend. That seems reasonable
based on especially sfc-H85 trough that elongates over time
instead of staying persistent vcnty of northern Ontario and
James Bay. As a bonus even the Canadian-NH which typically
performs superior with these type of lake effect events is
showing that.

Supplementing factors will be in play as well including upstream
lake connections and potential of several shortwaves pinwheeling
through the main upper trough that will likely both enhance lake
snows from time to time, but also disrupt wind flow at times causing
the bands to temporarily shift. This could limit accumulations in
any one location at least providing some breaks in the activity.
Eventually the upper level low slowly shifts east to just north of
the area Sunday before shifting east across New England Sunday
night. This will veer boundary layer flow some with lake snows
shifting more due east or even southeast of the Lakes Sunday night.
High pressure, drier air and increased shear will start to build in
for the start of the new work week which should start to weaken lake
snows on Monday.

All of this said, timing and location of the lake effect snows will
continue to be refined as we get closer to the actual start of the
event, especially as higher res model data starts to be included. As
folks well versed with lake effect know, it just takes a wind
direction change of 10 degrees to make all the difference as to
where heaviest band of lake snow occurs. Main point now is to stay
up to date with the latest forecasts and statements.

[BuffaloWeather]

[BuffaloWeather]

Latest runs look like identical locations to last one with less QPF. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Friday Night

Pops up to 70%

 

Rain and snow showers likely, becoming all snow after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Saturday

Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Saturday Night

Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday

Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday Night

Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 70%

[BuffaloWeather]

BUF is using GEM based on latest FD.

[BuffaloWeather]

Lake Erie is at 43 degrees, 3 degrees above average for the date. 

[BuffaloWeather]

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...Significant lake effect snow becoming more likely this weekend
off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario...

Confidence is continuing to grow that there will be a round of
significant lake effect snow off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario
this weekend. The more impactful snowfall will likely be focused
from the Buffalo southtowns into the western Southern Tier and
across the Tug Hill region. Still a little bit earlier, but the
current thinking would place the city of Buffalo and the city of
Watertown OUT of the axis of the more SIGNIFICANT snowfall.

Deepening low pressure across eastern New England by Friday night
will move up the New England coastline during the weekend. This
will draw gradually colder air into the region Friday night in the
wake of the occluded frontal boundary. The incoming air aloft should
grow cold enough to support a lake response starting later Friday
night with a band of lake effect snow expected to begin
east/northeast of Lake Erie. Widespread synoptic snows associated
with the coastal low will continue across north central New York.

The synoptic snows across north central New York will gradually wind
down Saturday, leaving the focus for the remainder of the weekend on
the potential for heavy lake effect snow. The airmass coming across
the lakes will continue to grow colder with time as 850 mb
temperatures eventually drop down to -10C to -12C range as deep
synoptic moisture remains in place. This should easily support
heavy lake effect off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

At this forecast range, there does seem to be a general overall
model support for an initial southwest flow bringing the potential
for the heaviest lake snows to organized to the northeast of the
lakes, including the Buffalo metro area and Watertown. However, this
is most likely occur for a relatively short duration, generally in
the Saturday into Saturday evening time frame. The coldest air would
have yet to arrive by this time, so the intensity of the lake effect
snow bands are a bit uncertain. Nonetheless, this would be the most
favorable time frame for the Buffalo metro area and Watertown to
receive the heaviest snowfall.

Trough moving through the region Saturday night will bring the
coldest air in its wake, but also veer steering winds more westerly
(about 260 degrees) and send the heaviest lake snows southward and
place the orientation of the heaviest lake snow off Lake Erie south
of Buffalo into the Southern Tier and eventually more on the Tug
Hill instead of Watertown/Fort Drum. This flow regime will likely
stay in place for a more sustained period of time likely through the
day on Sunday and even into Sunday night. The lake band intensity
should pick up during this time with the potential for snowfall
rates of greater than 2 inches per hour at times, leading to
significant snowfall totals.

[Weather Mike]

On 12/13/2022 at 5:25 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...Significant lake effect snow becoming more likely this weekend
off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario...

Confidence is continuing to grow that there will be a round of
significant lake effect snow off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario
this weekend. The more impactful snowfall will likely be focused
from the Buffalo southtowns into the western Southern Tier and
across the Tug Hill region. Still a little bit earlier, but the
current thinking would place the city of Buffalo and the city of
Watertown OUT of the axis of the more SIGNIFICANT snowfall.

Deepening low pressure across eastern New England by Friday night
will move up the New England coastline during the weekend. This
will draw gradually colder air into the region Friday night in the
wake of the occluded frontal boundary. The incoming air aloft should
grow cold enough to support a lake response starting later Friday
night with a band of lake effect snow expected to begin
east/northeast of Lake Erie. Widespread synoptic snows associated
with the coastal low will continue across north central New York.

The synoptic snows across north central New York will gradually wind
down Saturday, leaving the focus for the remainder of the weekend on
the potential for heavy lake effect snow. The airmass coming across
the lakes will continue to grow colder with time as 850 mb
temperatures eventually drop down to -10C to -12C range as deep
synoptic moisture remains in place. This should easily support
heavy lake effect off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

At this forecast range, there does seem to be a general overall
model support for an initial southwest flow bringing the potential
for the heaviest lake snows to organized to the northeast of the
lakes, including the Buffalo metro area and Watertown. However, this
is most likely occur for a relatively short duration, generally in
the Saturday into Saturday evening time frame. The coldest air would
have yet to arrive by this time, so the intensity of the lake effect
snow bands are a bit uncertain. Nonetheless, this would be the most
favorable time frame for the Buffalo metro area and Watertown to
receive the heaviest snowfall.

Trough moving through the region Saturday night will bring the
coldest air in its wake, but also veer steering winds more westerly
(about 260 degrees) and send the heaviest lake snows southward and
place the orientation of the heaviest lake snow off Lake Erie south
of Buffalo into the Southern Tier and eventually more on the Tug
Hill instead of Watertown/Fort Drum. This flow regime will likely
stay in place for a more sustained period of time likely through the
day on Sunday and even into Sunday night. The lake band intensity
should pick up during this time with the potential for snowfall
rates of greater than 2 inches per hour at times, leading to
significant snowfall totals.

That Miami vs buffalo game maybe great for some snow based on the wind directions off the lake around game time Saturday night. 

[BuffaloWeather]

48 minutes ago, Weather Mike said:

That Miami vs buffalo game maybe great for some snow based on the wind directions off the lake around game time Saturday night. 

I'll be there for it if it happens!

[Weather Mike]

39 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'll be there for it if it happens!

I may have to make another trip. Will be in Vermont but if there will be some good LES around game time I may try and fly out on Saturday to catch that game. Missed the big one that got moved to Detroit. 
Will just see how the next day or two goes regarding the LES 

[BuffaloWeather]

Picked up 21.3" with the last LES event, brings me over 100" on the year already. Looks to be another one coming next weekend with the potential for very high winds accompanying the bands.

[BuffaloWeather]

https://kamala.cod.edu/ny/latest.nous41.KBUF.html

..Erie County...
4 NW Eden                    22.2 in   0230 PM 12/18   42.69N/78.97W
2 NNW Hamburg                21.3 in   0200 PM 12/18   42.75N/78.85W
West Seneca 2.5 SE           19.5 in   0415 AM 12/18   42.81N/78.71W/777
Hamburg 2.0 N                18.5 in   0800 AM 12/18   42.75N/78.83W/730
2 SSE Lancaster              18.0 in   1115 AM 12/18   42.87N/78.65W/694
3 SSW Sloan                  17.4 in   0200 PM 12/18   42.86N/78.82W
Lake View 1NE                16.7 in   0815 AM 12/18   42.73N/78.92W/647
Lancaster                    16.5 in   0600 AM 12/18   42.90N/78.67W/664
Lancaster 0.3 S              16.5 in   0600 AM 12/18   42.90N/78.67W
2 SE Sloan                   16.0 in   0830 AM 12/18   42.87N/78.76W
2 WNW East Aurora            15.5 in   0900 AM 12/18   42.77N/78.66W/961
2 NNW Elma Center            15.5 in   0840 AM 12/18   42.85N/78.64W
Orchard Park                 15.0 in   0645 AM 12/18   42.76N/78.74W/859
Hamburg 0.4 WSW              14.5 in   0700 AM 12/18   42.72N/78.84W/791
Hamburg                      14.2 in   0845 AM 12/18   42.72N/78.83W
Lancaster                    14.0 in   0100 PM 12/18   42.90N/78.67W
West Seneca 2.5 SE           14.0 in   0415 AM 12/18   42.81N/78.71W/777
Lancaster                    13.3 in   0600 AM 12/18   42.90N/78.67W/664
Lancaster 0.3 S              13.3 in   0600 AM 12/18   42.90N/78.67W
East Aurora 0.1 ENE          12.4 in   0700 AM 12/18   42.77N/78.62W/918
Elma 2.7 WSW                 12.4 in   0700 AM 12/18   42.81N/78.68W/835
 N Buffalo Airport           11.8 in   0700 AM 12/18   42.94N/78.72W/701
West Falls                   11.8 in   0100 PM 12/18   42.70N/78.68W
East Aurora 2.7 SSE          11.5 in   0845 AM 12/18   42.73N/78.61W/1085
2 N Buffalo                  11.1 in   1140 PM 12/17   42.92N/78.86W
Cheektowaga 2.7 NE           11.0 in   0700 AM 12/18   42.94N/78.72W/702
Clarence                     10.8 in   0845 AM 12/18   42.98N/78.58W
Williamsville 3.8 E          10.8 in   0700 AM 12/18   42.96N/78.67W/712
Angola                       10.6 in   0800 AM 12/18   42.65N/79.03W
4 NW Eden                    10.4 in   0730 AM 12/18   42.69N/78.97W
1 SSE Harris Hill            10.3 in   1225 AM 12/18   42.96N/78.67W/724
1 NW Williamsville           10.1 in   0900 AM 12/18   42.97N/78.75W
 N Buffalo Airport           10.0 in   1054 PM 12/17   42.94N/78.72W/701
3 NE Boston                  9.7 in    0100 PM 12/18   42.66N/78.70W/1589

[BuffaloWeather]

Few vids from the storm

 

Another from the Adirondack storm

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Obviously we just had a big event and not one post here. Everyone is on the discord now, if anyone wants an invite to it PM me on here.

[BuffaloWeather]

HWO from Buf. 

A significant winter storm appears likely to develop and track
northeastward across the eastern third of the country Thursday and
Friday. Chances are increasing that this system will bring a warmup
and widespread rain Thursday and Thursday night...followed by sharply
colder conditions and a flash freeze on Friday along with a changeover
back to snow.

Strong winds will also be possible Friday night and Saturday...with
potentially significant lake effect snow also likely developing
Saturday and continuing through Christmas Day.

Potentially significant lake effect snow and strong winds is expected
Friday night and Saturday. The strong winds could also bring lakeshore
flooding concerns to areas along the Lake Erie shoreline.

[BuffaloWeather]

Talk about some crazy noon runs. 

150" before the new year?  

[PerintonMan]

Where did everyone go?

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Talk about some crazy noon runs. 

150" before the new year?  

Send some snow to the east

Not even a dusting here in NYC 

[BuffaloWeather]

42 minutes ago, PerintonMan said:

Where did everyone go?

Discord 

[BuffaloWeather]

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Send some snow to the east

Not even a dusting here in NYC 

Come chase this one