Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!

[BuffaloWeather]

6 hours ago, ayuud11 said:

Northern Erie gang checking in haha


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Would you like to join our discord? We won't be posting much on here.

[ayuud11]

Would you like to join our discord?

Sure bro.


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[BuffaloWeather]

4 minutes ago, ayuud11 said:

Sure bro.


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check your pms.

[WaistDeepSnow]

18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

sent did you get invite?

Not a new one yet.

[BuffaloWeather]

3 hours ago, WaistDeepSnow said:

Not a new one yet.

Check pms

[BuffaloWeather]

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...

A favorable pattern for lake effect snow will develop during the
period with a mid level trough axis across the Great Lakes and 850mb
temperatures averaging between -7 and -12C. The location of lake
effect bands is highly dependent on wind direction which will be
determined by subtle features such as the timing and strength of
embedded shortwaves. It`s important to acknowledge that the 12Z
GFS/GGEM show a predominantly SW flow which could produce heavy
snowfall across the Niagara Frontier and Buffalo metro area.
However, it`s also common for model guidance to shift in this
timeframe, so it`s prudent not to get too hung up on one particular
model. Now for the details...

Predominantly westerly flow expected Wednesday night and Thursday
which would direct lake snows across the Western Southern Tier and
far south towns off Lake Erie and across the Eastern Lake Ontario
region. 850mb temps more marginal (-7C) so precipitation may mix
with rain along the lake shores at times. It also appears a weak mid-
level ridge may cross which would strip away moisture during
Thursday which would mute the lake response for a bit.

Fairly good model agreement that an approaching shortwave will shift
the flow to the SW Thursday night, with this potentially lasting
through Friday night. This is when there will be the greatest
potential for snow across the Niagara Frontier and in Jefferson
County, including the Buffalo metro area and Watertown. 850 mb
temperatures will be around -11C which is plenty cold enough to
support snow, and there should be ample synoptic moisture in place.
It`s still far too early to pin down exact band location or amounts,
but this is the timeframe of greatest concern.

Another shortwave will approach Saturday, which could result in a
SSW flow which could direct snows across western Niagara county the
St. Lawrence River, and even into Canada at times Saturday before
winds shift back to the WSW behind it. Lake snows should begin to
diminish on Sunday as 850mb warm a bit and with drier mid-level air.
During this period, lake snows may be intense but are likely to be
fairly mobile which will somewhat limit additional accumulation at
any one location.

[BuffaloWeather]

[BuffaloWeather]

GFS

GEM

[BuffaloWeather]

GEM with 6" of QPF....

[BuffaloWeather]

Even the UK drops 3-4" of qpf

[BuffaloWeather]

latest UK

[BuffaloWeather]

4-5" of qpf

[BuffaloWeather]

Lake Erie at a record high for the date today at 55 degrees, 5 degrees above average. Previous record for the date was 54 degrees.

Latest Lake Temperatures

941 AM EST Sun Nov 13 2022 The water temperature off Buffalo is 55 degrees.

[BuffaloWeather]

So thats all 4 globals showing absolutely ridiculous QPF outputs in the 4-6" range. Would be one of the biggest LES in history if that comes to fruition.

[BuffaloWeather]

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There`s a potential for significant lake effect snow Thursday night
through Saturday. There is still considerable uncertainty in exact
ban placement and amounts, but it is possible that there will be
periods of heavy snow across the Niagara Frontier, including the
Buffalo metro area during this time.

[BuffaloWeather]

Save worthy AFD from KBUF

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...IMPACTFUL LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD...

There continues to be growing confidence that a prolonged southwest
flow lake effect event will take place during this period. A deep
longwave trough...featuring a vertically stacked low in the vicinity
of Hudson Bay...will keep a flow of seasonably cold air in place
over the Lower Great Lakes through the weekend to GUARANTEE a lake
response. The `formula` for significant lake snow will then come
down to whether there is ample synoptic moisture to work with...and
of course the direction of the H85 steering flow. Consensus of both
ensemble and deterministic guidance packages are in fairly strong
agreement of a southwest flow...but placement of accumulating snow
bands will have to be further defined as the event nears. From this
early week vantage point though...the KBUF and KART metro areas and
their northern suburbs are favored.

This event will certainly have some historical precedence though in
that several crippling storms have occurred at roughly the same time
in November...particularly in the BUF area. Remember Nov 20, 2000,
when many became stranded in their vehicles...or the twin
storms that made `Snow-vember` infamous with over five feet of
snow? While we are not suggesting the same for the upcoming
event...merely a correlation with the calendar. Speaking of
correlations...local studies from the KBUF office does show some
stark similarities in the synoptic pattern for these larger
events. The largest events have near stationary plumes of
snow...but it is still way too early to get that detailed.

In the wake of a passing shortwave ridge on Thursday...subtle
troughing embedded within in the larger scale longwave pattern will
produce a deep southwest flow of cold air across Lakes Erie and
Ontario. There is a suggestion that the flow will generally be 250-
260 Thursday evening...but with the lakes still relatively warm (nr
of abv 10c)...that flow could back some 10 deg over Lake Erie.
During the course of Thursday night and Friday...the flow is
forecast to back a bit...and this will send well organized lake snow
plumes from the Buffalo and Watertown metro areas into their
respective northern suburbs. Again...placement of these bands will
depend on the exact H85 flow...but a southwest (230-250) flow is
being favored by guidance at this time. Given the expected presence
of moisture up to arnd H7...snowfall rates of >1"/hr is becoming
more plausible. Headlines will be issued as confidence levels
increase.

While the steering will likely oscillate somewhat during the course
of the weekend...a cold southwest flow is being advertised by most
of the guidance packages. This would keep lake snows in place to the
northeast of both lakes with additional significant accumulations
possible.

[BuffaloWeather]

GFS

[BuffaloWeather]

Wednesday Night

Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Thursday

A chance of snow showers before 11am, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday Night

Snow showers likely before 1am, then snow after 1am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Friday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Friday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Saturday

Snow. High near 32. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Saturday Night

Snow. Low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Sunday

A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

[BuffaloWeather]

If anyone is chasing this one I'd target around Buffalo airport area and get here at the latest by Thursday night. 

[BuffaloWeather]

The CIPS analogs are insane, majority are major events. 

[BuffaloWeather]

The higher resolution models will start to get within range with tonights runs.

[BuffaloWeather]

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There`s a potential for significant lake effect snow Wednesday night
through Saturday. There is still considerable uncertainty in exact
ban placement and amounts. Periods of heavy snow are possible during
this time, especially closer to the Lake Erie shoreline where lake
effect snow will be more persistent.

Given that `regular` deer season opens at the end of this week...DOT
agencies and other snow removal operations may want to review
staffing levels.

[BuffaloWeather]

Cleveland NWS on the potential for LES

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The short term forecast period should be highly anticipated for
those that enjoy the plunge to winter and snow, especially lake
effect. For Tuesday night, a shortwave moving through the Ohio
Valley will support a weak low across the area. This low will not be
all that impressive from a temperature or precipitation standpoint.
Expecting a light bit of rain across the entire area with the low
and shortwave passage with perhaps rain changing to snow towards the
end of the night as colder temperatures wrap in by daybreak on
Wednesday. However, it is the colder air pulled in behind the system
and the priming moisture with the low that will set up the area for
the rest of the week`s weather.

On Wednesday morning, the area will start with a residual surface
trough across the region with cooling temperatures spilling in.
Meanwhile, another shortwave trough will loom just west of the Great
Lakes region. This trough will dig through the Great Lakes during
the day on Wednesday and bring some reinforcing colder air aloft,
while veering the general flow to the west-northwest. This should
allow for a typical lake effect snow setup for our area for
Wednesday night and beyond. For now, expecting pretty good moisture
across the area with the preconditioning from Tuesday night`s
system. For instablilty, 850 mb temperatures of -7 to -12 C and 700
mb temperatures of -16 to -18 C through the second half of the
forecast period - all over a Lake Erie with surface temperatures in
the 50s (12-13 C) - indicate significant lake-induced instability
for lake effect snow. In fact, while early, there is evidence that
the boundary layer depth for lake effect could exceed 10 kft, which
would support fairly efficient lake effect snows. Finally, there
should be plenty of lift with the general upper trough across the
region to allow for all of these favorable parameters to be utilized
for snow development. This all just leaves two questions: "Where?"
and "How much?" For the Wednesday night through Thursday night
period, low level flow should be north of west, which would send
snow into OH/PA vs. NY. The question is how quickly does this flow
try to back around to west or southwest and send snow downstream
into NY, which is certainly expected in the long term period below.
In the end, there is heightened attention for accumulating snow for
mid-week and the question is more on the "when" a headline would be
needed vs. an "if" for portions of NW PA and NE OH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
By daybreak Friday, organized lake effect snow will be occurring
over the eastern portion of Lake Erie and adjacent land areas of
Ohio and Pennsylvania. The question for lake effect for Friday is
where is snow actually occurring. As a wave of energy moves through
the upper trough over the Great Lakes, flow will begin backing
toward the southwest and would start shifting snow north and more
over Lake Erie and into western New York. Of course, if any of the
lake effect mentioned in the short term above becomes very
organized, the northward shift could be slower and more snow could
be present across the area during the day on Friday. With that, have
likely PoPs for NW PA on Friday and trending down with the expected
northward shift. For Saturday into Sunday, the trough over the
region appears to deepen with another wave of energy across the area
and some light snow could occur across the entire area with this
feature. However, once the wave passes, southwest flow will be even
more pronounced and any lake effect would be favored northeast of
the forecast area. Therefore, have some slight chance to chance PoPs
for now for the weekend with the highest in PA. Temperatures through
the period appear extremely cold for the third weekend of November.
High temperatures will be lucky to escape warmer than 30 degrees
with reinforcing bouts of colder air. Lows will be quite frosty in
the teens for most locations, especially if there are some breaks in
the clouds as lake effect shifts north. Lows in far NE OH/NW PA and
near the lakeshore may try to hang on to the lower 20s.

[Weather Mike]

42 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

If anyone is chasing this one I'd target around Buffalo airport area and get here at the latest by Thursday night. 

I was thinking about chasing this and will get a hotel closer when there is more definitive knowledge on where the most snowfall amounts will be etc. I plan to get in Thursday early. 

 

43 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

If anyone is chasing this one I'd target around Buffalo airport area and get here at the latest by Thursday night. 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

6 minutes ago, Weather Mike said:

I was thinking about chasing this and will get a hotel closer when there is more definitive knowledge on where the most snowfall amounts will be etc. I plan to get in Thursday early. 

 

 

Are you coming up from Tampa? If so I'd say get a hotel close to the airport. Still too far out to completely predict wind direction but looks good for that area. 

[Weather Mike]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Are you coming up from Tampa? If so I'd say get a hotel close to the airport. Still too far out to completely predict wind direction but looks good for that area. 

Yes I am coming from Tampa. 

thanks for the advice. I will continue to monitor this forum and tropicaltidbits 

[BuffaloWeather]

RGEM showing 20" of snow at 1:10 ratios before the real event even starts...

[BuffaloWeather]

Over 3" of QPF

[BuffaloWeather]

This could be an all timer. 

[Geez150]

Buffalo, could you send me an invite? As for the weather,  makes me a little nervous with the possibility of getting all that snow this early. No way will it stay cold enough long enough.  I can see flooding taking place.