BuffaloWeather Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 We talked it over in discord and plan to keep track of big storms/LES events on here and the smaller day to day stuff will be discussed on there. We have 35 posters who joined and is pretty active daily. If anyone would like to join the discord please PM me through here so I can send out an invite. The invite is good for 7 days. Oct Temps BUF: +0.7 ROC: -1.6 WAT: +0.7 SYR: +1.2 BING: +0.1 The first 2 weeks of November look to start out warm This winter looks to be a 3rd year Nina with not many analogs matching. The NOAA winter forecast looks promising for our area https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-winter-outlook-warmer-drier-south-with-ongoing-la-nina#:~:text=Starting in December 2022 through,northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 I tried to dm you for a invite but it said you can't get messages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 I guess I gotta get in this Discord stuff. So send me an invite if you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 3, 2022 Author Share Posted November 3, 2022 On 11/2/2022 at 6:19 PM, tim123 said: I tried to dm you for a invite but it said you can't get messages 10 hours ago, Flying MXZ said: I guess I gotta get in this Discord stuff. So send me an invite if you can. Check your pms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 15 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Check your pms I would also like an invite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 4, 2022 Author Share Posted November 4, 2022 1 hour ago, SnowLover22 said: I would also like an invite Check pms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2022 Author Share Posted November 5, 2022 On 11/3/2022 at 9:10 AM, Flying MXZ said: I guess I gotta get in this Discord stuff. So send me an invite if you can. We're you able to join? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 This weather is stupid. Finally dropped below 60 this morning (at 57°). Warm days are fine this time of year, but it not cooling off is weird. But good to see the amazing Bills losing again to another AFC East team. They are pretty good out of their division! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 On 11/5/2022 at 12:23 AM, BuffaloWeather said: We're you able to join? Just got around to it. Thanks. Seems to be working fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 @BuffaloWeather first LES event of the year this weekend? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2022 Author Share Posted November 7, 2022 19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: @BuffaloWeather first LES event of the year this weekend? .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Wetter and eventually cooler times on the way as we close out the work week and head into next weekend. Still appears at least the first half of Friday will be dry, and possibly the entire day just depending on location of and speed at which the deeper tropical moisture associated with TS Nicole moves northward up the Atlantic Seaboard. The other player will be an area of low pressure that moves NE`ward through the upper Great Lakes and how its trailing cold front interacts with Nicole`s moisture. Timing of these features will be key as there will likely be a swath of heavy rain moving N`ward with this system. At this point, appears the best chance for any significant rain will be from central/eastern NY and points east Friday night into Saturday before strong cold front sweeps it off the New England coast. Now for the `cooler` portion of the forecast period. Much cooler air will start to work in across the area through the day on Saturday in the wake of the cold fropa and as a broad mid and upper level trough takes shape over the central and eastern CONUS. Cold air will continue to deepen through the second half of the weekend which will lead to the development of lake effect rain showers as early as Saturday afternoon, with the airmass growing cold enough to support frozen precipitation all the way to the surface by Saturday night. Big picture...lake effect rain and snow showers look like a pretty good bet downwind of the lakes for Saturday night into Sunday, although way to far out to pinpoint location. Several mid level disturbances will also move through the trough aloft, so winds will likely shift around a bit from time to time as well. Looking further out, appears that overall this cooler pattern may have some staying power, hence more seasonable weather may be here to stay for at least a little while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2022 Author Share Posted November 7, 2022 Crazy departures through first 6 days of November BUF: +14.3 ROC: +12.3 WAT: +14.2 SYR: +16.2 BING: +16.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2022 Author Share Posted November 7, 2022 fantasy model season starting off strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: fantasy model season starting off strong Did you get my PM requesting to join your Discord? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2022 Author Share Posted November 7, 2022 .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ...Notably Colder for the Weekend with Lake Effect Snow Possible... Still appears at least the first half of Friday will be dry, and possibly the entire day just depending on location of and speed at which the deeper tropical moisture associated with TS Nicole moves northward up the Atlantic Seaboard. The other player will be an area of low pressure that moves NE`ward through the upper Great Lakes and how its trailing cold front interacts with Nicole`s moisture. Timing of these features will be key as there will likely be a swath of heavy rain moving N`ward with this system. At this point, appears the best chance for any significant rain will be from central/astern NY and points east Friday night into Saturday before strong cold front sweeps it off the New England coast. Now for the colder portion of the forecast period. Cooler air will START to work in across the area through the day on Saturday in the wake of the cold fropa and as a broad mid and upper level trough takes shape over the central and eastern CONUS. While there is strong model consensus that cold air will promote lake induced instability over the >12c lakes...there is a large disparity between some of the packages as to the availability of synoptic moisture. As of midday today (Mon)...the majority of the deterministic models suggest that a `dry` environment will be in place across our forecast area in the wake of the cold front for Saturday and much of Saturday night. This scenario would only allow for a minimal lake response. On the other hand...the entrainment of the tropical system into the frontal passage would slow the passage and would translate into more moisture for the instability to work with. For example...the CanNH shows very robust plumes off each lake on a 250-260 flow. This particular package suggests an explosive lake response as early as Saturday afternoon and evening...which seems too fast given the low level ridging that typically moves through in a 3-6 hr post fropa window. If the latter solution where to verify...we would potentially be looking at significant lake snows east of both lakes Saturday night into Sunday night...although a MORE LIKELY scenario would be for a minimal lake response due to a lack of moisture abv H85. In this case though...a more favorable environment is being depicted for lake effect pcpn Sunday night and Monday. To sum it up...while there is high confidence for below normal temperatures this weekend...including downright cold weather Sunday and Monday...there are still too many questions to be confident for notable lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 11, 2022 Author Share Posted November 11, 2022 Tons of rain. Going to be some totals over 4" when all is said and done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2022 Author Share Posted November 12, 2022 Highest total was 3.16" https://kamala.cod.edu/ny/latest.nous41.KBUF.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2022 Author Share Posted November 12, 2022 Canadian went nuts in last few runs. GFS has it too but a little further south and lower totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Canadian went nuts in last few runs. GFS has it too but a little further south and lower totals. I don't want to go too far out on a limb here but thinking that 54 inches on Tug may not verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2022 Author Share Posted November 13, 2022 It’s coming! It is important to note, that while it is still early, some of the more reliable guidance for lake effect is indicating the possibility of a significant lake effect snow event for areas northeast of both lakes later in the week. This would include for the Buffalo Metro area and for the Watertown area. As usual, as time gets closer, model guidance should come to better agreement on the potential for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2022 Author Share Posted November 13, 2022 All globals are now dropping feet of snow across erie county and metro buffalo next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2022 Author Share Posted November 13, 2022 All showing 3-4" of QPF in the form of snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2022 Author Share Posted November 13, 2022 Still 4 days out from the start of the event but starting to look much better as we get closer. Cold air and moisture are virtual locks. Wind direction/shear/time over one spot would be only hindrance that I can see so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2022 Author Share Posted November 13, 2022 We have 42 members that joined discord so far, anyone feel free to PM me for an invite as things start to get active across the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow22 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 Finally!!! I have been granted access again from my long overdue absence!!! Just in time as the models are going bonkers this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaistDeepSnow Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 Can I get a new invite too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 🥹🥹. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 Finally!!! I have been granted access again from my long overdue absence!!! Just in time as the models are going bonkers this weekend! Northern Erie gang checking in haha . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2022 Author Share Posted November 14, 2022 8 hours ago, WaistDeepSnow said: Can I get a new invite too? sent did you get invite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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