Hurricane Martin

[yoda]

Tropical Storm Martin Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162022
1100 AM AST Tue Nov 01 2022

...MARTIN FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.3N 55.9W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Martin was
located near latitude 35.3 North, longitude 55.9 West. Martin is
moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). The tropical storm is
anticipated to turn toward the northeast at a faster rate of
forward speed during the next two days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Martin
is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday night before
transitioning to a powerful extratropical system on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

 

[yoda]

Tropical Storm Martin Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162022
1100 AM AST Tue Nov 01 2022

The occluded low over the central North Atlantic has developed deep
convection over its center, while the frontal boundaries have
become displaced a long distance to its east and north.  At
the same time, FSU Cyclone Phase Space analyses suggest that the
system has developed a non-frontal warm core.  Given these changes,
the system has evolved into a tropical cyclone. The ASCAT
scatterometer just observed the system and indicated that the
intensity is currently at 45 kt with a large area of
35 kt-plus winds. Thus the system is now a tropical storm and given
the name Martin.

The system is moving toward the east-northeast around 8 kt, as it
is embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies in a split in the jet
stream with faster westerlies both poleward and equatorward of the
system.  Martin should turn toward the northeast at an increasingly
rapid forward speed during the next two days.  The official track
forecast is based upon the consensus (TVCN and HCCA) of the tightly
clustered global and hurricane dynamical models. In about three
days, Martin should decelerate as it merges with a developing
extratropical low to its north.

For the intensity, even though the SSTs are a lukewarm 25C, the
upper-level temperatures are quite cold given that Martin is
embedded within a deep and vertically stacked cyclone. This
vertical temperature structure should enable deep convection
to continue, even while the mid-level moisture is only marginally
ample.  The vertical shear is 20-25 kt out of the southwest, but
the effects of this moderate shear are tempered by Martin moving in
the same direction as the shear vector.  Bottom line is that
despite the month being November, Martin is expected to develop into
a hurricane at high latitudes.  The official intensity prediction
steadily strengthens the system through 48 hr, which matches a
consensus of the statistical, global, and hurricane dynamical
models.  Around 48 hr, Martin should transition into a powerful
extratropical low as a cold front reaches near the center of the
system.  In about three days, post-tropical Martin should be
merging with an developing extratropical system to its north but
still be containing hurricane-force winds.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 35.3N  55.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 35.4N  53.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 36.1N  50.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 38.7N  46.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 43.8N  40.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  04/0000Z 51.5N  34.6W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  04/1200Z 56.0N  34.9W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea

[Floydbuster]

Looks like two November hurricanes. I've been preaching all year about these La Nina seasons being active so much later. I've just been surprised we haven't seen a major hurricane in October. 

[Windspeed]

Martin has formed a clear and distinct eye. Deep convection aided by cold pool upper tropospheric temperature forcing over the past few days has allowed 25°C SSTs to remain sufficiently warm enough to fuel high lapse rates. We should have a rare November day with two simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin.

[Chinook]

Models have this merging with the mid latitude trough to produce maybe 927mb near Greenland. I wonder if that's the sort of freak storm, that, sunk dozens of ships of Europeans going back and forth to North America in the 1700s and such.

HWRF- large grid

 

[Chinook]

Hurricane Martin getting caught by the cold air aloft. The GFS has 100 kt winds close to the ocean surface as this transitions.