ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: No it’s great that we are seeing this . But devils advocate.. we saw this several times last winter and the season before etc etc. And as we got closer it got less favorable, pushed back or both. I’m not sure why people on here can’t understand why there is worry and doubt . We all want that look that is modeled. Just like we all “want” that hot model. Looks and wants are one thing.. satisfaction and verification are quite another. We had a legit pattern both of those winters.....we got a bit unlucky last January except for those folks right near the coast who saw 24-30" in the blizzard....but the pattern easily could have yielded more events. But even still, I think ORH had like 25-30 inches of snow during these 3 weeks and it could have been another 12-15 more if that ridiculous Jan 17th storm hadn't produced like a 1 in 50 phase that cause it to run up our fannies. Then the previous winter, we had a very good pattern from around MLK until mid-February. We got like 40 inches of snow during this period. I think 2020 might be the year you are thinking of when all the ensembles showed an obscenely good pattern around mid to late January and then it just evaporated. LAst year, we did have some false starts in December, but we did get the good pattern in January....we were just a little snake bit from what-could-have-been due to Jan 17th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We had a legit pattern both of those winters.....we got a bit unlucky last January except for those folks right near the coast who saw 24-30" in the blizzard....but the pattern easily could have yielded more events. But even still, I think ORH had like 25-30 inches of snow during these 3 weeks and it could have been another 12-15 more if that ridiculous Jan 17th storm hadn't produced like a 1 in 50 phase that cause it to run up our fannies. Then the previous winter, we had a very good pattern from around MLK until mid-February. We got like 40 inches of snow during this period. I think 2020 might be the year you are thinking of when all the ensembles showed an obscenely good pattern around mid to late January and then it just evaporated. LAst year, we did have some false starts in December, but we did get the good pattern in January....we were just a little snake bit from what-could-have-been due to Jan 17th. Yup, that 2020 head fake in late January was tough to take…looked great and proof she gone! What a tease that was. Hopefully this isn’t one of those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Pretty intense for D14-15 That would be nice even down here. I just hope it holds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: No it’s great that we are seeing this . But devils advocate.. we saw this several times last winter and the season before etc etc. And as we got closer it got less favorable, pushed back or both. I’m not sure why people on here can’t understand why there is worry and doubt . We all want that look that is modeled. Just like we all “want” that hot model. Looks and wants are one thing.. satisfaction and verification are quite another. Patterns also don’t necessarily correlate to measuring inches of snow either. The pattern can be exactly as shown but it still doesn’t snow because of other random variables. That’s where the “satisfaction” side comes in… it can verify but not satisfy. Great patterns don’t produce sometimes, just like terrible patterns can run into one sometimes. But you hedge your bets. It’s all a probability game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: No it’s great that we are seeing this . But devils advocate.. we saw this several times last winter and the season before etc etc. And as we got closer it got less favorable, pushed back or both. I’m not sure why people on here can’t understand why there is worry and doubt . We all want that look that is modeled. Just like we all “want” that hot model. Looks and wants are one thing.. satisfaction and verification are quite another. The polar vortex is a lot weaker than last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Everyone thinks we need to see deep blues at 500mb kissing the Gulf Coast. No thanks. I've seen enough of that way too many times... especially the decade known as the 80s. I'm not at all disappointed with the possible setup in December myself 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 1 hour ago, Lava Rock said: are you ok today? lots of negative vibes. beer He messed up and sprung his calendar forward instead of fall back on the clock. He thinks it's December 22nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 2 hours ago, weathafella said: Beer? Drugs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: EPS looking niiiiccceeeee. But…but..that pope dude and the geese said it’s going to be nothing but warm. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Worst weather term ever. Whenever you see it or hear it , it means push back and back and back and just offers no consistent promise or anything to look forward to . I particularly like the old “we might need to take a few cutters to get our storm” always uplifting when your hear that on February 1st haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s no lashing out at all. I’ve been around a long time . I’ve fallen for this excitement before and it almost always is pushed back and back .. like a Judge HR over the monster Kevin... Are you a grown adult or a teenager... Asking for a friend? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 The eps pattern is almost perfect for us. We have the blocking to prevent cutters and force secondary redevelopment (Miller B). We have some SE ridging as well to prevent suppression so we won’t have to worry about a repeat of 2009-2010 or 2015-2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 We are so cooked this weekend. Light packin’. T-shirts and sweatshirts. We 60’s. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 Get out of model fantasy land and get accumulating On my car 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 This place is funny. God forbid anyone express any worries or concerns that things might possibly not turn out like they are modeled . I mean if you’ve been around long enough.. you know the pattern is not going to turn epic like these forecasters and models are saying. I just can’t excited anymore at day 14 progs . They never work out . Not to say it won’t snow by Dec 10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 1 hour ago, bwt3650 said: But…but..that pope dude and the geese said it’s going to be nothing but warm. The pope is Excommunicated…now he’s calling for 60’s this weekend, and 1717 will be watching the geese fighting the crows… oh the horror. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This place is funny. God forbid anyone express any worries or concerns that things might possibly not turn out like they are modeled . I mean if you’ve been around long enough.. you know the pattern is not going to turn epic like these forecasters and models are saying. I just can’t excited anymore at day 14 progs . They never work out . Not to say it won’t snow by Dec 10 Bottom line: it’s better to see something very nice, than to see something very ugly. We take what we can get…and appreciate the progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This place is funny. God forbid anyone express any worries or concerns that things might possibly not turn out like they are modeled . I mean if you’ve been around long enough.. you know the pattern is not going to turn epic like these forecasters and models are saying. I just can’t excited anymore at day 14 progs . They never work out . Not to say it won’t snow by Dec 10 So, you're not happy because the models look good two weeks out because it might not happen, but would you be unhappy if they looked terrible two weeks out? 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 19 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: So, you're not happy because the models look good two weeks out because it might not happen, but would you be unhappy if they looked terrible two weeks out? That’s the crux of it right there. Everyone knows the variables and that everything in weather is a probability spread. Some people don’t do good with unknowns, probability, and uncertainty too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 27 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: So, you're not happy because the models look good two weeks out because it might not happen, but would you be unhappy if they looked terrible two weeks out? I think it’s fantastic how good they look. But why can’t someone express their doubts on here ? How many times have they burned us.. over these 3 Nina years in a row? This exact same thing happened the last 2 winters . They looked great.. most Mets bit and forecast it.. and then it didn’t happen nearly as epic as it looked. I’m not saying it can’t or won’t happen.. but what’s wrong with worrying or questioning how good things will be? I got called a whiner by Will and a poster by the name Snowcrazed asked me how old I was . Simply for expressing another option . I’m the biggest snow lover here. I’m not sold at all on this epic pattern . I hope they are right. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think it’s fantastic how good they look. But why can’t someone express their doubts on here ? How many times have they burned us.. over these 3 Nina years in a row? This exact same thing happened the last 2 winters . They looked great.. most Mets bit and forecast it.. and then it didn’t happen nearly as epic as it looked. I’m not saying it can’t or won’t happen.. but what’s wrong with worrying or questioning how good things will be? I got called a whiner by Will and a poster by the name Snowcrazed asked me how old I was . Simply for expressing another option . I’m the biggest snow lover here. I’m not sold at all on this epic pattern . I hope they are right. Well , let’s face it , we are all on a weather forum and our drug is snow , so puff puff pass the good word , or your just killin the vibe 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 It comes down to whether we can avoid the extreme RNA pattern of last year + whether the strength of Atlantic blocking could suppress SE ridge enough to allow for snow events. GEFS going back and forth on strength of blocking. New runs look better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Well , let’s face it , we are all on a weather forum and our drug is snow , so puff puff pass the good word , or your just killin the vibe That’s part of it too… worrying that the drug isn’t as good as the dealer says it will be . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Well , let’s face it , we are all on a weather forum and our drug is snow , so puff puff pass the good word , or your just killin the vibe I used to be one of those . When the Mets on the board here forecast it.. buy it.. get pumped . I remember last year I questioned things .. and how did last winter work out? I guess I’m in my wiser years.. I’ve learned to be cautious. I’m in the “ I hope these guys are right , but am very concerned of the Pacific and Nina in screwing yet again “ camp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 I would bet my life that if we are buried in snow by 12/10, people will move on to lamenting the look around the holidays, probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think it’s fantastic how good they look. But why can’t someone express their doubts on here ? How many times have they burned us.. over these 3 Nina years in a row? This exact same thing happened the last 2 winters . They looked great.. most Mets bit and forecast it.. and then it didn’t happen nearly as epic as it looked. I’m not saying it can’t or won’t happen.. but what’s wrong with worrying or questioning how good things will be? I got called a whiner by Will and a poster by the name Snowcrazed asked me how old I was . Simply for expressing another option . I’m the biggest snow lover here. I’m not sold at all on this epic pattern . I hope they are right. Well written!!! And I agree with you regarding the reactions/replies when people express doubt and different opinions. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I used to be one of those . When the Mets on the board here forecast it.. buy it.. get pumped . I remember last year I questioned things .. and how did last winter work out? I guess I’m in my wiser years.. I’ve learned to be cautious. I’m in the “ I hope these guys are right , but am very concerned of the Pacific and Nina in screwing yet again “ camp We’ve all been there. It’s a natural defense mechanism, I’ve done it before snowstorms… you look for what could go wrong. I expect a Messenger SE rug pull every storm. Ya’ll do it all summer, every summer now with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 4 hours ago, weathafella said: And as far as pulling back-last nights 384 vs today’s 372. More amplified! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 There’s nothing wrong with expressing different opinions…if it’s rational and reasonable. One worrying about something is their own problem. Whether you worry or not, does not change anything, so I don’t know how rational that is when it comes to a model run. But if one wants to worry, then by all means go ahead. All that can be said at this moment, is that the look moving forward is a nice look. If one wants to worry about it, that’s their right to do so. But not to the point of making blanket statements that don’t have any merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: This place is funny. God forbid anyone express any worries or concerns that things might possibly not turn out like they are modeled . I mean if you’ve been around long enough.. you know the pattern is not going to turn epic like these forecasters and models are saying. I just can’t excited anymore at day 14 progs . They never work out . Not to say it won’t snow by Dec 10 Actually Ginxy’s train arrived on schedule. That worked out. I doubted the early arrival too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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