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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

November is typically either "First flakes" or "first measurable" for SNE...the latter being usually over the interior. I think ORH has had something like 60-65% of Novembers seeing measurable snow in the past 30+ years. This year already had 2 inches there, so first measurable is already out of the way.

I'd say for December, typically the interior should see an advisory event by 12/10-12/15....and the coast is maybe a week later on average. Often they get them at the same time, but there are events where it doesn't work like that....Dec 5, 2020 is an example...I think ORH had 9.6" of paste while the coast had an inch of glop. The coast got in on the action in the 12/17/20 storm.

You really want to see it start to get active in DEC, When that happens as long as there's cold around, That's a good sign to get off and running.

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IMO things are really going to come down to how much flexing of the SE Ridge we see (in terms of strength and positioning). One of the bigger discriminators between warmer La Nina winters and colder La Nina winters is how prevalent the SE ridge is. This obviously as well could have a significant impact on storm track (though not necessarily how active we are in terms of storms). The Pacific does look pretty decent but I kind of wish it was configured a bit differently. 

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5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Wednesday through Friday AN. Run at Record warmth this weekend. Mowvember continues, after a one week hiatus. 

I havn’t been around as long as others, but it seems your hiatus’ are generally timed with cold patterns/big snows only to return when things moderate, no?..but welcome back 

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1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Absolute all timer :lol:

20211112_203038_compress66.thumb.jpg.53313a87fdf8f90bc21c66ba1453c558.jpg

20211122_185020_compress28.thumb.jpg.ee047707e8234e30a3ef021046c8f787.jpg

 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I want to vomit seeing that.

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'd rather see no snow at all than have to witness that. Crushing 

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

I remember these pics but didn't remember it was you, (old age) That's as demoralizing as it gets.

...This is truly the most depressing thing since...The Great Depression.

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11 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Wednesday through Friday AN. Run at Record warmth this weekend. Mowvember continues, after a one week hiatus. 

Need an official Papal ruling.....does this count as a confession of sins of claiming no pattern change?

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Canadian geese still grazing in Portsmouth. Yep. Winter is right around the corner folks

Grass hasn't even browned in Rochester yet. It's like everything knows it except the modelologists.

There are flocks of geese in the Methuen area.  Grass in my yard is still growing.  The other day my wife and I were driving to a basketball tournament, and along the way we commented on how it looks more like early april.

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14 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Canadian geese still grazing in Portsmouth. Yep. Winter is right around the corner folks

Grass hasn't even browned in Rochester yet. It's like everything knows it except the modelologists.

Pope.jpg.c15f4422ca43bd087ef4fa23f7e429b3.jpg

You've slipped here lately,  Let me help you get on your feet.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I can't believe there are geese still here and it's not deep winter on 11/22. How can that be?

They're still overhead migrating south while i'm out hunting the last 2 weeks, Seems like they're making a stop at the Vatican before continuing on, Canada is a large territory, Takes time to empty out..ha ha

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13 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

There are flocks of geese in the Methuen area.  Grass in my yard is still growing.  The other day my wife and I were driving to a basketball tournament, and along the way we commented on how it looks more like early april.

Right on schedule because mid-November average temps are right on par with early April. Though early April skews a little snowier than mid-November.

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