Snowcrazed71 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Another 15-20 days of winter wasted Lol .. Lord help us. Drink more beer. You'll forget all about it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 21 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ya I mean this is def SNE centric forum but for many in NNE Outside the CP ...their snow climo takes off about now That will happen after the 5th I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 Of all the recent December’s we have had, I’d say this look on guidance over the last few days is probably one of the better ones I can remember at this stage in late November. Of course it’s all perspective and since recent Decembers have been so bad, it’s easy to say that. However I do kind of like the look towards the end of the ensembles. Of course, we need to get that inside day 10. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like another 15-20 IPAs wasted. Losing the first part of December at least . Don’t worry though.. Morch will deliver” ! 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 29 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's November It’s winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Losing the first part of December at least . Don’t worry though.. Morch will deliver” ! First few days? Oh noes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 It would be tough. I remember when growing up in NJ it went sub zero pretty much every winter. It's quite the rarity in that area these days.Still in shock at the number of you that have nj roots and got the hell out…13-14 was the last time there were multiple sub zero nights in nj I think. There’s been the token one night here or there, but that was the last notable stretch. I think we did it several nights In a row or pretty close that year. I doubt the nj cities have done it in years. Big contrast to jay where we did multiple sub zero Days in a row last Jan.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: First few days? Oh noes. Last year it was the first few days.. the year before the first few days… you get the point . Until the weenie is in your mouth about to glide down.. We will remain worried 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 Disturbing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 Pattern looks like crap for snows outside of NNE. So far looking like a copy of 2021So climo favored regions will see what climo favors? I’ll see snow at Jay, but not in NJ..got it.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Losing the first part of December at least . Don’t worry though.. Morch will deliver” ! Ray already likes 23-24. Let's forget about the upcoming winter and focus on that one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 Looks active with cold nearby. Still early but as long as we’re not turning on the basement dehumidifiers in December, we’re in good shape. Just sit back and relax…it will come. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: So climo favored regions will see what climo favors? I’ll see snow at Jay, but not in NJ..got it. . It'll be December by then. More than NNE should be getting snows 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Disturbing Drinking pre Thanksgiving 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: It'll be December by then. More than NNE should be getting snows We dont usually see our first snowfall down here until Mid December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Looks active with cold nearby. Still early but as long as we’re not turning on the basement dehumidifiers in December, we’re in good shape. Just sit back and relax…it will come. Just Keep the piggy away from models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 14 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Almost looks more appropriate for November now. A cold rain for many on that type of solution where maybe the interior hills in N ORH county and monadnocks end as brief 34F noodles and places like VT/N NH mountains end as 3” of paste. Not to be a douche, but the NJ model idea isn't new for this thing. I was trying to encourage the forum last week that the canvas hemisphere really supported the NJ look, rather than the stem-wound and/or Miller A... Nor the Lakes cutter, either - credit your dipping tendencies with -NAO for that. So, gradually ... the models got that memo. Fast moving more open wave that may or may not have some vestigial potency. And you're right - perhaps the thermal profile being more not like 1987 (1986). Those were some NJ model low examples. Marginal leading atmospheres. They could also just be called November model lows... they tend to be the favored flavor as the gradient starts to steepen and warm seasons initially resists.. Anyway, ..as is, it's not actually even very marginal - although the 00z Euro sort of hinted, with that pocked 850 mb layout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Looks active with cold nearby. Still early but as long as we’re not turning on the basement dehumidifiers in December, we’re in good shape. Just sit back and relax…it will come. First widespread northeast coastal storm will be December 5-10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Losing the first part of December at least . Don’t worry though.. Morch will deliver” ! 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It'll be December by then. More than NNE should be getting snows 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Last year it was the first few days.. the year before the first few days… you get the point . Until the weenie is in your mouth about to glide down.. We will remain worried This is why I love this forum.....every November....rinse and repeat. The funny part is if we had gotten a snow event last week, all of these same people would've said "We're wasting a good pattern in November!!!! It's going to turn to crap by mid December!11!!#2!" 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Looks active with cold nearby. Still early but as long as we’re not turning on the basement dehumidifiers in December, we’re in good shape. Just sit back and relax…it will come. That will happen Christmas eve, The Grinch will hit the switch as he leaves a fresh pile of coal in the basement. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like a milder than average stretch overall coming up starting tomorrow. Thanksgiving will be seasonably cool. It looks like after 12/5 the pattern gets more favorable maybe add a few days to help set it in. At least this is how it looks today. That’s not bad considering how it looked last week. I love the progression of the pattern relative to climo. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 Yeah so...I don't know what others thought are at this point. I'm sort of in and out with holiday travel - But I see attempts to fumble around with the hemisphere and the -EPO may not be dead. I don't see the recency with that index as necessarily an isolated occurrence in time - tho that could prove to be the case, I think less likely. I've felt this way all along, and the EPS is showing -EPO/western limb, but with cold loading pattern into western Canada with classic new and/or re-surge -EPO forcing after a week or so. Meanwhile, the GFS operational...despite SE ridging, keeps sending NW mid and upper trop trajectories through western Canada - whether that is representative of a -EPO ..that is probably vestigial if not a nod to the EPS. I guess the short version is that I am not pessimistic as a winter enthusiast for December. If the EPO does renew, ...yeah, I don't have a problem with sending a warm up through the eastern continent, at least for 3 ... *but* with the faster CC transition season velocity bias ..we keep having to seemingly/mandatory move into new regimes faster than initially thought. I realize that -ENSOs tend to x-y-z a winter to hell and back ...but I'm also becoming less of a fan of ENSO factorization in recent deltas/decade(s)/gradually 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I love the progression of the pattern relative to climo. I don't understand the angst some have. Unless this collapses or is delayed, it seems like it's progressing right along. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 This is the 5 day mean on each ensembles suite....basically covers the first week of December (minus the first day or two) GEFS looks more favorable than EPS, but EPS is still totally fine. In both cases, the Atlantic blocking is actually retrograding at the end of the run so it probably gets better beyond that. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Pattern looks like crap for snows outside of NNE. So far looking like a copy of 2021 Saying that this December looks like a copy of December 2021 is one of the dumbest things I have ever heard on this forum....stick to fondling your @snowman21 blow-up doll. Wow...this is a run-of-the-mill RNA regime as currently modeled, which coupled with blocking in the polar domain has been historically one of the most fruit patterns for the northeast in terms of snowfall. Comparing this to last December is akin to (insert moron 5PPD) comparing every snowstorm to the blizzard of '78, or '96. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don't understand the angst some have. Unless this collapses or is delayed, it seems like it's progressing right along. I don't think the majority of posters truly appreciate the magnitude of that RNA last December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don't understand the angst some have. Unless this collapses or is delayed, it seems like it's progressing right along. Sometimes a few people get confused and forget that climo in their backyard isn't Rangeley Maine. If we aren't covered with permanent pack by December 1st, we're "Wasting winter". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 Its the annual pull some down off the tobin season, Right on schedule, Trying to rush the season in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Last year it was the first few days.. the year before the first few days… you get the point . Until the weenie is in your mouth about to glide down.. We will remain worried Lol .. ya know... You talk a lot about weenies ... Is there something your not telling us? Lol Anyway... Put on your big boy pants.. pull them up and be patient. Once we get that first big one.. you will be the first weenie at the front of the line. ;-) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: Its the annual pull some down off the tobin season, Right on schedule, Trying to rush the season in. The irony in this is that the pattern actually looks pretty good for early December....I wouldn't be shocked if we have a good system pre-Dec 10th. But apparently that isn't good enough....we need to have the once-in-40 year November biggie. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think the majority of posters truly appreciate the magnitude of that RNA last December. You don't think there's a chance it trends stronger as we get closer to December? Maybe not Dec 2021 levels but still strong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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