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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, it is. I'm not saying it would be as cold, obviously with climate change, but negative NAO/PNA regime was a staple of the 60s winters.

Imo it could be every bit as cold as those winters if the right pattern sets up. I mean Feb 2015 broke the record from the1930’s…just need the right set up.  But regardless…it’s a nice look, if it can hold lol. 

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5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Imo it could be every bit as cold as those winters if the right pattern sets up. I mean Feb 2015 broke the record from the1930’s…just need the right set up.  But regardless…it’s a nice look, if it can hold lol. 

Yeah if the right pattern sets up, one even better than those past winters, it can certainly beat them.  These days you just need that extra 10% of perfection to best the past in cold records.

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37 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Imo it could be every bit as cold as those winters if the right pattern sets up. I mean Feb 2015 broke the record from the1930’s…just need the right set up.  But regardless…it’s a nice look, if it can hold lol. 

It would be tough.  I remember when growing up in NJ it went sub zero pretty much every winter.  It's quite the rarity in that area these days.

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10 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Don't need records, just below average cold will do.

Yup.  Even marginally below normal cold.

-SN falling in the flood lights right now as a weak shortwave moves NW to SE through here.  A piece of energy tonight and another tomorrow night.

It looks like we are in for a pattern relaxation coming up, but hopefully having the gradient nearby can lead to some forum fun.  

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Imo it could be every bit as cold as those winters if the right pattern sets up. I mean Feb 2015 broke the record from the1930’s…just need the right set up.  But regardless…it’s a nice look, if it can hold lol. 

I mean on average pattern per pattern it wouldn't be as cold. 

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57 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya for Jersey maybe…but not us SNE folk. :P

What I notice is jersey growing up is SNE today.  Admittedly I grew up during a time of amazing winters but as mentioned earlier we had our share of duds also.  In Boston, it snows more now vs 40 years ago especially the most recent 30 year normal (1991-2020).

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yup.  Even marginally below normal cold.

-SN falling in the flood lights right now as a weak shortwave moves NW to SE through here.  A piece of energy tonight and another tomorrow night.

It looks like we are in for a pattern relaxation coming up, but hopefully having the gradient nearby can lead to some forum fun.  

Euro weeklies look fantastic for a frosty December 

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7 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Morrisville-Stowe Airport average high is 41F today.  Mid-40s average a week ago.

31/17 yesterday.  

36/4 today.

8th straight day solidly below normal.

Ginxy’s pattern change call worked out.

It’s been clear that it has…but some don’t seem to see that.  And it was the ones saying that the change wasn’t gonna happen as quick as it did :axe:

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17 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

but, but the pattern change was supposed to be complete by the 25th.....

You haven't been around long enough to understand that 15th/25th joke. Peeps know the call was the pattern flipped around the 15th and I said 2 to 1 BN to AN until Christmas. With 9 in a row BN looking pretty frigging good my man.

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Looks like a milder than average  stretch overall coming up starting tomorrow. Thanksgiving will be seasonably cool. 
 

It looks like after 12/5 the pattern gets more favorable maybe add a few days to help set it in. At least this is how it looks today. That’s not bad considering how it looked last week. 

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1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

End of EPS looks a bit like too much of an RNA coupled with a NAO block that seems a bit too far south and east.

GEFS looks much better IMO.

Of course at the end of their respective runs so.

EPS looked fine to me. That’s probably a SWFE look. The blocking verbatim sets in at the end of the run, so one can envision it getting much better after 12/5. Hence my comment about maybe adding a few days. Latitude will matter. 

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