dryslot Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 To early in the season to rely on snow from a southern stream s/w with no cold air in the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Gfs has made huge strides the past 2 years. Let’s see how they perform with a winter storm that’s legit. That used to be the euros wheelhouse. The height changes are amazing for that model. I'm sure the EPS will follow as well which is more disturbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 GEFS @ 12z today continue showing less of a "pig" out in the 10-15 day range. Almost completely replacing it with a ridge and a trough in the east....hope it continues this look as we move closer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 41 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Looks like we'll get our mild late November to early December period after all. but, but the pattern change was supposed to be complete by the 25th..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: Pretty much a nothing burger for Fri-Sat, Then when the s/w does eject out of the south, The air mass will to warm for anything but rain its seems. Without looking back, I feel like the UK showed this type of outcome yesterday @ 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Spanks45 said: Without looking back, I feel like the UK showed this type of outcome yesterday @ 12z? I really have not looked at very much of this as it was not looking very good the last few days of models and i've been rather busy so just started looking, But i don't think the Ukie ever had this as snow at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: GEFS @ 12z today continue showing less of a "pig" out in the 10-15 day range. Almost completely replacing it with a ridge and a trough in the east....hope it continues this look as we move closer They looked decent to me. At least guidance at the moment seems to be lessening any fears of prolonged pigs etc. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: They looked decent to me. At least guidance at the moment seems to be lessening any fears of prolonged pigs etc. Yeah another incremental improvement to the point that the longer range looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They looked decent to me. At least guidance at the moment seems to be lessening any fears of prolonged pigs etc. Any pigs this season will be drive bys.....its not going to be the type of season where they plant on your face and squeal for two months. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 18 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: but, but the pattern change was supposed to be complete by the 25th..... It is compared to the 70’s we were experiencing….where have you been 1717? Teens last night, vs 70 overnight last Friday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: It is compared to the 70’s we were experiencing….where have you been 1717? Teens last night, vs 70 overnight last Friday night? Beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 25 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: but, but the pattern change was supposed to be complete by the 25th..... The models rush pattern changes a lot. Delayed but not denied. During transition periods the models are completely lost just like Zach Wilson is when he drops back to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 This is so bad from the EPS. 4 days out on the EC ensemble and these height changes are absurd. That's embarrassing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 Anyone ice fishing or pond hockey today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Anyone ice fishing or pond hockey today? I did see ice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: It is compared to the 70’s we were experiencing….where have you been 1717? Teens last night, vs 70 overnight last Friday night? For temps, the 12-14 period was the change here - 12: 63/51; 13: 51/36; 14: 36/26. Nov 1-13 avg was 60/38. Since then, it's 34/22 and today will push that avg down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 42/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 31F for the high. 1st sub freezing day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 I like another bday snow on the op euro in clown range..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 Well we're heading to northern VT weekend of 12/2 and Chicago 12/8-12. Somewhere between those places and here I'm going to likely see snow OTG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 36 minutes ago, George001 said: The models rush pattern changes a lot. Delayed but not denied. During transition periods the models are completely lost just like Zach Wilson is when he drops back to pass. No, the pattern has changed completely George. We had upper 70’s for highs, and upper 60’s to near 70 for lows the first week of November. Look where we’ve gone since. The pattern is completely different/changed. That’s what is being talked about when I responded to great snow 1717. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 I would love to see Snow in my Birthday 12/3. I believe two or three years back, we had a good storm on my birthday for the day before. It was a big sleep fast and then it turned to snow. We had about 12 inches where we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This is so bad from the EPS. 4 days out on the EC ensemble and these height changes are absurd. That's embarrassing. I know we always say this, but in all seriousness, what did they do to that model? Holy smokes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Anyone ice fishing or pond hockey today? My pool is iced over. But that’s about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: My pool is iced over. But that’s about it. All ponds are frozen solid with black ice . 48 hours of below freezing will do it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 Damn, that Euro track is money for the Berks. What a waste. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 Nice look on both GEFS and EPS in early December. That’s quite the change compared to a couple days ago. Model volatility is back….like it’s 2007 again when you had no idea what was going to happen 12 days in advance. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nice look on both GEFS and EPS in early December. That’s quite the change compared to a couple days ago. Model volatility is back….like it’s 2007 again when you had no idea what was going to happen 12 days in advance. We'll take it 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 54 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: 31F for the high. 1st sub freezing day. Same here, Chilly and breezy today, 31°F. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 57 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: 42/15 Milder in yby today. Logan 38/15. I’m at 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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