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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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14 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Cold and so much blowing snow in these 30mph gusts in town.  The 2” earlier today in the squalls is now getting moved around in a big way.  Wind is honking, should be single digits by morning, possibly below zero higher up.

Snow sifting down the roads in the wind, arctic type vibes.  

Also, check out this massive “snow devil” a friend caught spinning up near the picnic tables.  

 

IMG_1645.MOV 295.63 kB · 19 downloads  

 

Wow, that's an epic snowdevil.  Perfectly placed with the sun behind it.

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26 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It was weird we dropped steadily at my house until around midnight when it was 24/12 and then never got below that.  Must have gotten some cloud cover because there was a light dusting of snow on the cars.

We had some flakes off and on yesterday afternoon and evening.  There was some on the ice that has formed in the pool but that was it.

At least the winds died a bit. 

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It will be nice to get this piece of crap system this weekend out of the way, regardless of what happens. This was one of those systems that I despise because it was always clear as day to me that nothing interesting in terms of winter weather for SNE was going to materialize, but you still have to hear about the damn thing for the better part of a week+.

Bonafide threat season begins after that thing passes, though early December will be an uphill battle for SNE.

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Still 29 after a low of 21 overnight.  Went for a midnight walk-full on winter feel.  

EPS looked worlds better but as others have said-volatility is the name of the game lately.  Maybe the GEFS is the way to hedge given their less volatility and the hedge to better but still some work to do....

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34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It will be nice to get this piece of crap system this weekend out of the way, regardless of what happens. This was one of those systems that I despise because it was always clear as day to me that nothing interesting in terms of winter weather for SNE was going to materialize, but you still have to hear about the damn thing for the better part of a week+.

Bonafide threat season begins after that thing passes, though early December will be an uphill battle for SNE.

Man.. I couldn't agree more with you. The problem is some of the people who post are way over zealous and it leads to unrealistic dreams.  

I too knew that the chances of something Wintry was a big stretch. What people fail to realize is it is still early ( to early ) in the game for the majority of SNE to get a big Snowstorm. My mindset typically becomes more engaged and getting bigger snows when we head into second to third week of December and on.

The other issue is the models and the discrepancies between the American model and the European model. There are always changes, but sometimes you get agreement that sticks within a week or so of an event. Again, there are people who just live by a model run. Anyway, I agree with you are post and hope others will read it and pull back a little. But that's a stretch lol

 

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50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It will be nice to get this piece of crap system this weekend out of the way, regardless of what happens. This was one of those systems that I despise because it was always clear as day to me that nothing interesting in terms of winter weather for SNE was going to materialize, but you still have to hear about the damn thing for the better part of a week+.

Bonafide threat season begins after that thing passes, though early December will be an uphill battle for SNE.

Just a muse... but, seems the -EPO switch a couple weeks back, combined with that minoring 'practice event' ..et al, sort of got the "group mood" into the winter disco mode.  In the groove so to speak.

Then, right during the syncopation of that music comes a few distancing model runs ...like the those GFSies, with cinema starring long duration ice/snow and a cold loaded system... That was rotten thing to do. 

Haha, it was like a joke - one that would work particularly well on this group of proven users.  HAHAHA.  wah wah waaaah.   This system this weekend, however, looks pretty typical, a normal November maintenance/pedestrian at this time

November is heartache month... The upshot for winter enthusiasts is that we still have ... 3 months coming with better odds/climo so it's no real loss. But relative to this particular time period, it may have been cunningly deceptively designed for an easy audience.   

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Missing hiker in Franconia Notch. She was dropped off at Lafayette Place Campground to hike Lafayette Haytack and Flume yesterday morning. Her ride went to the meet up parking lot around 4pm. Waited...she never showed, so they called in a missing hiker report. 3 SAR Teams went out last night after dark...no word yet

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17 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

Missing hiker in Franconia Notch. She was dropped off at Lafayette Place Campground to hike Lafayette Haytack and Flume yesterday morning. Her ride went to the meet up parking lot around 4pm. Waited...she never showed, so they called in a missing hiker report. 3 SAR Teams went out last night after dark...no word yet

That sounds bad.  Hopefully she’s ok.

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8 minutes ago, George001 said:

Eh all the models were terrible with it. They were too early with bringing the blocking in which is why the threat isn’t going to pan out. We need more blocking.

Also, and even more important is the climo aspect of the whole thing…it’s just a tad too early too.  Every week now means a lot as we approach our climatological window for legit threats…which is fast approaching, but not quite here just yet in SNE. 

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