40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Western CT mauler….Danbury with 6+ on that depiction. Doubt the NARCAN would have that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 nice squall in eastern NY looks to make it to SNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: EPS agrees with OP with a powerful GOM LP. Look out CNNE. N Greens fake snow sweet spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 27 to start here in with some graupel on the deck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro gon wild Train kept a-rolling all night long...With a heave, and a ho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Euro was semi tropical with that low. Tossed to the moon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Euro was semi tropical with that low. Tossed to the moon. Locked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Euro was semi tropical with that low. Tossed to the moon. EPS is a bomb GOM. Ski areas will get smoked. This story ain't done. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro gon wild Congrats Wildat. For the other 95% of us boring. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 47 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: 27 to start here in with some graupel on the deck. Yea noticed that in Danielson as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Just now, moneypitmike said: Congrats Wildat. For the other 95% of us boring. 95%? If you were at Pit one you would not even think of saying that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Nice 1-2” of leaf blower fluff. Wintry appeal. It’s really coming down now though. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 95%? If you were at Pit one you would not even think of saying that lol Okay---85% of us. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Nice 1-2” of leaf blower fluff. Wintry appeal. It’s really coming down now though.In lake placid for a kids hockey tournament. Same scene.. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 11 hours ago, powderfreak said: The change in pattern has been absolutely obscene to be honest. To truly recognize the change, all one has to do is look at the temperature departures. What a call by Ginxy. Take a station like ORH... just ripping off double digit high average departures (daily departures of 15-20+ are nuts)... and then we see sustained negative departures (today also below normal but not shown here). We have seen a pattern change that has resulted in 20-30 degree changes in the means! That is remarkable! Sensibly to the average person, it's a massive change. Nov 1-13 ran 11° AN with the coolest max at 46. The past 6 days are a modest 4° BN with each day's max between 31 and 36. And our 25-year average temp for 1-13 is 5° higher than for 14-19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: EPS is a bomb GOM. Ski areas will get smoked. This story ain't done. It’s done other than for a few moose. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 15 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Okay---85% of us. I’d say 98% of us. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 18 minutes ago, amarshall said: In lake placid for a kids hockey tournament. Same scene. . My son has on played in that a half dozen tines, no better place. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Surprised to see GEFS so vastly different than OP for next Saturday . Ya - not a snower for Boston , and maybe it goes poof but interesting to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Surprised to see GEFS so vastly different than OP for next Saturday . Ya - not a snower for Boston , and maybe it goes poof but interesting to me Ensembles should be used at this range anyways. Actually nice to see differences vs having them look alike. That’s the idea of ensembles so they are working as they should with solutions that are more dispersive compared to the op. Both gfs and euro op are tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ensembles should be used at this range anyways. Actually nice to see differences vs having them look alike. That’s the idea of ensembles so they are working as they should with solutions that are more dispersive compared to the op. Both gfs and euro op are tossed. You did say the storm was gone - we hope it doesn’t come back or we will send you a postcard - to the Vatican 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro was semi tropical with that low. Tossed to the moon. That and ... the vast continuity blow up is clue there lol. That said, I don't believe an inland solution ( ORD to Ontario...) is really favored or very well physically supported by the synoptic footprint during that period - not that you or anyone has asked me for my op on that. Still ... I said a couple days ago that a flatter open wave ( potency to be determined...) is favored, which would more likely lead to a NJ model cyclogen type of scenario. I thought as awkward as the continuity shift was ( and the details contained ) wrt to the Euro solution ...it was a nod at trying to go more that route ...like a gross attempt. The GFS at 06z really did go that way almost entirely, though it is more toward the 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: You did say the storm was gone - we hope it doesn’t come back or we will send you a postcard with your arms around pope It’s gone for most of us. Obviously mtns up north have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 The look ahead: Ironically GEFS have the worst looking pacific but better blocking. EPS has a few days mild stretch after the 28th, but then cools off later in first week of December. I’ve yet to really see a clear signal that is either torch, or a pattern that looks hostile, but could offer chances. Hopefully we can sneak in something before it hopefully gets better after the 10th or so . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: The look ahead: Ironically GEFS have the worst looking pacific but better blocking. EPS has a few days mild stretch after the 28th, but then cools off later in first week of December. I’ve yet to really see a clear signal that is either torch, or a pattern that looks hostile, but could offer chances. Hopefully we can sneak in something before it hopefully gets better after the 10th or so . Not a lot of continuity on these ensemble runs. I’m guessing we have some more changes that will show up. At leas the AO/NAO blocking showing up has been kind of consistent. Hopefully that happens. I think your theory of weak forcing right now causing model volatility is prob correct. Nothing dominant to show a coherent signal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’d say 98% of us. Quality over quantity 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The look ahead: Ironically GEFS have the worst looking pacific but better blocking. EPS has a few days mild stretch after the 28th, but then cools off later in first week of December. I’ve yet to really see a clear signal that is either torch, or a pattern that looks hostile, but could offer chances. Hopefully we can sneak in something before it hopefully gets better after the 10th or so . That’s a lil different than what you said yesterday afternoon, when you said “the bad look is coming…it’s been modeled.” Not trying to be a jerk or anything, Just trying to make sure I understand your reasoning that’s all. So this morning you’re not quite sure if it’s an all out torch/or hostile pattern, because it’s(longer range ensembles) waffling again? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Light snow in Templeton. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Not a lot of continuity on these ensemble runs. I’m guessing we have some more changes that will show up. At leas the AO/NAO blocking showing up has been kind of consistent. Hopefully that happens. I think your theory of weak forcing right now causing model volatility is prob correct. Nothing dominant to show a coherent signal. I don’t know what else it might be. It’s not a torch look or a cold look…..just kind of mundane lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: I don’t know what else it might be. It’s not a torch look or a cold look…..just kind of mundane lol. Would you say seasonal? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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