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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am so sick of the inconsistency with respect to snowfall measuring.....I had my 31.5" jack tossed in March 2018 after employing the same, exact technique and they took depth measurements, instead. But when it comes to a lake effect circle jerk, they all derobe to the big 22.7" discrepancy between max depth and 6 hourly swipes.

I had a 6.5" gap and it was tossed.

What a joke.

 

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Weren't your measurements on a garbage can?

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32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I’ve been largely discounting the oper GFS’ last ~3 cycles. 

 

Its remarkable though how the Op despite the ensembles not being close on any of the last 3 runs spat out such a vastly different idea than the ensemble mean...at 132 on the 00Z run the GEFS vs GFS difference is maybe the biggest I ever saw at Day 6 

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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

The change in pattern has been absolutely obscene to be honest.

To truly recognize the change, all one has to do is look at the temperature departures.  What a call by Ginxy.

Take a station like ORH... just ripping off double digit high average departures (daily departures of 15-20+ are nuts)... and then we see sustained negative departures (today also below normal but not shown here).

We have seen a pattern change that has resulted in 20-30 degree changes in the means!  That is remarkable!  Sensibly to the average person, it's a massive change.

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That was entirely my point, sensible weather change was huge.

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