ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Just now, Spanks45 said: Long range on the GEFS continues to look questionable....lots of blues showing up from the arctic the whole way down to Cali, can't be good. At least the Greenland blocking continues to hold on... Early December will have to be salvaged by the NAO/AO I think....PAC going a bit hostile seems to be the trend right now and it was showing up that way too on some longer range stuff before we had a very brief few runs of less hostile PAC. Both EPS and GEFS do show a -AO during early December so it could keep us in the game for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Long range on the GEFS continues to look questionable....lots of blues showing up from the arctic the whole way down to Cali, can't be good. At least the Greenland blocking continues to hold on... I wouldn’t be too worried about long range, when we can’t figure out 7 days from now? It keeps flipping back and forth ftom run to run and we’re 6-7 days out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I wouldn’t be too worried about long range, when we can’t figure out 7 days from now? It keeps flipping back and forth ftom run to run and we’re 6-7 days out. If the MJO is in phase 7 it sure is alot better than 6, that much we at least know and it does seem unlikely as of now it would be in anything but 7 in early December 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I wouldn’t be too worried about long range, when we can’t figure out 7 days from now? It keeps flipping back and forth ftom run to run and we’re 6-7 days out. Pope wins. Shout….. shout…… shout 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 21 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: It's all gravy before Christmas here. Including the inevitable Grinch storm on or around Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 You can see the AO/NAO helping us out in first week of December here despite a semi-hostile PAC. This is the EPS, but GEFS is similar....maybe even more robust with -NAO than EPS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Pope wins. Shout….. shout…… shout Pope doesn’t win shit…he called this cool down bunk. He wrong. Ginxy crushed the pope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Early December will have to be salvaged by the NAO/AO I think....PAC going a bit hostile seems to be the trend right now and it was showing up that way too on some longer range stuff before we had a very brief few runs of less hostile PAC. Both EPS and GEFS do show a -AO during early December so it could keep us in the game for something. I don't expect much until like second week of month 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't expect much until like second week of month In terms of anything more than nuisance snow, we rarely cash in during first week of month anyway unless the pattern is quite favorable. Interior elevations are the exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Well there goes the favorable pattern in late month and all December Time to wrap up Winter 1 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Early Dec just get some ice up in this beeyatch, keep everyone at bay until the big boys arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Models are still all over the place, there hasn’t been any consistent trend. The probability of something big here is low because of the time of year, but it’s too early to write the storm off. We are still getting North Atlantic blocking so we can get big snows even if the pac is bad for early December. The mid Atlantic may struggle more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 20 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Well there goes the favorable pattern in late month and all December Time to wrap up Winter There's always winter 2023-24. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 58 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Pope doesn’t win shit…he called this cool down bunk. He wrong. Ginxy crushed the pope. You have to remember, Kevin is devout.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 30 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Well there goes the favorable pattern in late month and all December Time to wrap up Winter Anthony did you just set the ‘early winter cancel record’? As always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 1 minute ago, weathafella said: You have to remember, Kevin is devout.... Shout at the devil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Well we've gone from 60's and 70's, with TP hanging out of my shorts last weekend to consistent 30's and 40's - with a couple days in the 50's after TDay possible, before we head back to the 30/40's again. I'd say it's been a change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Aren’t SWFE’s the best for Eastern SNE chances in early December . No East flow just a good thump that requires a cold antecedent airmass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Aren’t SWFE’s the best for Eastern SNE chances in early December . No East flow just a good thump that requires a cold antecedent airmass Yes. any BL winds blowing 1° from the direction of the ocean and we toast, typically. I'd take a SWFE. If I recall wasn't that Nov 18? Cape Cod bay is 55° currently. Maybe in another month we'll have a bit more wiggle room..but not much until January down here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 13 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: Well we've gone from 60's and 70's, with TP hanging out of my shorts last weekend to consistent 30's and 40's - with a couple days in the 50's after TDay possible, before we head back to the 30/40's again. I'd say it's been a change. Yes. And quite the change. And that’s all folks were saying. Ginxy for the big win…and called it right on time. Impressive imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 14 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Aren’t SWFE’s the best for Eastern SNE chances in early December . No East flow just a good thump that requires a cold antecedent airmass Yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Occasional graupel and snow showers today but no additional accumulation. Wintry appeal though. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Occasional graupel and snow showers today but no additional accumulation. Wintry appeal though. Nothing at mountain ? What direction or what is missing for the streamers to hit the Spine like they do sometimes . More S’rly angle ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 40 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: Yes. any BL winds blowing 1° from the direction of the ocean and we toast, typically. I'd take a SWFE. If I recall wasn't that Nov 18? Cape Cod bay is 55° currently. Maybe in another month we'll have a bit more wiggle room..but not much until January down here. Except 12/16/07-dumbfounding 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Ha... Boston got 30.3 inches in past 48 hours. https://buffalonews.com/news/local/from-2-feet-boston-hills-to-1-inch-niagara-falls-48-hour-snowfall-totals-show/article_679ad48a-6739-11ed-8ffe-87241de212cc.html "Here are the 10 towns or villages with the greatest accumulation: • Blasdell – 48 inches • Orchard Park – 42.5 • Hamburg – 37 • West Seneca – 36 • Boston – 30.3 • Wales – 26.3 • Eden – 25 • Alden – 24 • Angola – 22" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 47 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Nothing at mountain ? What direction or what is missing for the streamers to hit the Spine like they do sometimes . More S’rly angle ? Yesterday the westerly flow streamers dropped about 5” up high and 2-3” down low. Today the SW flow is aimed too far north. We’ve seen snow showers but nothing of note today. Dumping just north of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Poster in WNY thread, Buffalo Weather posted links to his Nest cams in Hamburg https://video.nest.com/live/3JG1KsHyyM https://video.nest.com/live/JjuiXqYdoy 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 Light snow here now with the band coming through Temp down to 34 here in Brooklyn 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Light snow here now with the band coming through Temp down to 34 here in Brooklyn Nice Anthony…your first flakes of the season. Saw ours back on Tuesday night. How long before we see any more? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Nice Anthony…your first flakes of the season. Saw ours back on Tuesday night. How long before we see any more? Hopefully December rocks Haven't had a good December in a long time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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