40/70 Benchmark Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 55 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Its pretty hard to argue against a pattern change when we're going from a huge AK pig currently, to a -EPO with initial dump of cold out west (while we continue to torch), and then eventually the EPO rolling over on itself and ending the furnace here. You can argue whether that means first snow chances or just merely chillier/normal weather for mid/late November, but it's a far cry from what we've seen and what we're going to see for the next week to 10 days. You don't go from a pig right into the freezer...the source region has to recover. Maybe the cold is initially over modeled, which would be expected...but unless the pattern itself keeps getting pushed back, then that is of no concern long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 5 hours ago, #NoPoles said: So, yesterday I discovered I had a propane leak at the outside gas regulator at the house and one of my tanks. One of my greatest fears is "things that go boom". The tech came and fixed/checked everything so all good now. But- I have to admit, my brain did produce thoughts such as- Oh god, what if I breathe and make a spark??? Or what if the wind blows a leaf and it makes a spark??? How did you figure out it was leaking? I go to where the pipe is outside on the house occasionally to check it and make sure I don’t smell the “rotten egg” smell. Not sure that would even be what I’m looking for though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 58 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: All time highs challenged? Near 80 for multiple days No idea what they are . I just know for my softball playoff games this Sunday I won’t need to layer up , and it’s shorts and t shirts for a while in Novie. Not hating it . Mowvember. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't know where this obnoxious mindset that "everyone is a moron because its warm, even though everyone expected it", comes from. It has to be rooted in some sort of retaliatory defense mechanism. Revisit in a month. Yeah not sure why some reactions are the way they are....but regardless, the weather doesn't give a shit. It's not going to flip from excessive warmth to excessive cold on a dime either. It prob goes more closer to normal for a bit and then if western ridging takes hold, that's when we'll see a better chance as sustained below normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't know where this obnoxious mindset that "everyone is a moron because its warm, even though everyone expected it", comes from. It has to be rooted in some sort of retaliatory defense mechanism. Revisit in a month. I know...I was sort of flabbergasted after reading that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: I know...I was sort of flabbergasted after reading that. #Flabbergasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: #Flabbergasted Lets trend that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 2 hours ago, WinterWolf said: I don’t get you guys(Pope and 1717)? Nobody here is saying anything massive or imminent, just that things look to shift to a more seasonable late fall, early winter like regime after mid month. The signs are being shown on the modeling…. ensembles and Ops runs from multiple suites. I mean isn’t that what we do here? There’s nothing wishful/wishcasting about what we’re saying or discussing. This warm weather is really nice…but it’s gonna change and what’s wrong with saying as much? It’s 100% a defense mechanism. Guarding against less desirable outcomes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: #Flabbergasted Yow know if it was 25 at noon today, you would be OCDing about the timing being bad and skinny dipping on xmas Be honest.....tell the truth... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yow know if it was 25 at noon today, you would be OCDing about the timing being bad and skinny dipping on xmas I think about 2/3rds of the forum would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yow know if it was 25 at noon today, you would be OCDing about the timing being bad and skinny dipping on xmas Be honest.....tell the truth... If it was 25 at noon, I’d probably be planning to drive to N moose fart Vermont to enjoy some upslope I do understand hahaha what your saying but since I’m willing to drive to jay peak i wouldn’t obsess (for long ) on playing devils advocate On a rubber band bounce back to shorts on Xmas if it was 25 here now. Everyone knows that I’m not satisfied with SNE snow climo but 80-85% of time I can usually drive to winter wx b4 I lose it . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 Nice Del Marva signal on this GFS … … only have to wait 350 hrs but it’s there nonetheless. Heh always a sure bet. Lol In any event this run- fwiw – really likes the idea of pretty much a sweeping guard change at a principal level. Doesn’t include details in backyards 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 The other aspect I’ve noticed over the last couple days of modeling is the ridge for this weekend aloft…? It’s really the penultimate ridgea; the actual big ridge bloom in terms of full integral takes place next week. But nuances in the flow east and south east Canada are creating confluence—> the big high scenario. “If” so that would limit Ts next week from being as large as this weekend. I realize other people have mentioned the high pressure but I’m talking specifically about the larger synoptic circulation scaffold wrt to ridging. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 Man what a torch Monday. 80+ looks pretty attainable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Man what a torch Monday. 80+ looks pretty attainable. Will someone tickle 90? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 Not sure about 80, but I think warmest temps actually might be in NW NNE. NY state, VT, nrn NH and into adjacent Canada. More srly flow in SNE might moderate it a tad. Either way, lady bugs and mosquitoes stuck in Ray's hair gel. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Not sure about 80, but I think warmest temps actually might be in NW NNE. NY state, VT, nrn NH and into adjacent Canada. More srly flow in SNE might moderate it a tad. Either way, lady bugs and mosquitoes stuck in Ray's hair gel. Saw a bunch of black flies on top of mount Wachusett today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 Still seeing signs of increased heights across the Arctic and a retrograding Scandinavian ridge during the middle of the month. Ensembles are slowly grasping on to this idea as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Still seeing signs of increased heights across the Arctic and a retrograding Scandinavian ridge during the middle of the month. Ensembles are slowly grasping on to this idea as well. Well Not according to the Pope…just throw darts , it’s not happening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 29 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Still seeing signs of increased heights across the Arctic and a retrograding Scandinavian ridge during the middle of the month. Ensembles are slowly grasping on to this idea as well. It looked more promising last week, but EPS isn't really buying that. For now anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 I think I am in agreement with Tippy about something perhaps in that 11/15-11/20 period for New England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Not sure about 80, but I think warmest temps actually might be in NW NNE. NY state, VT, nrn NH and into adjacent Canada. More srly flow in SNE might moderate it a tad. Either way, lady bugs and mosquitoes stuck in Ray's hair gel. You think the folks in charge of getting Killington ready for the World Cup are nervous yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It looked more promising last week, but EPS isn't really buying that. For now anyways. 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think I am in agreement with Tippy about something perhaps in that 11/15-11/20 period for New England. That strong pulse of lower heights SW of Aleutians showing up late in the run is interesting.....could mean a pretty huge EPO/PNA joint ridge extrapolating toward late November which is what some of the seasonal guidance was showing. Regardless, the AK heights have been consistently well above avg on all ensemble runs after this week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, mreaves said: You think the folks in charge of getting Killington ready for the World Cup are nervous yet? I know they are, ha. First FIS snow control inspection is November 12th. If they haven’t started by then it’s over. If they have some white down they’ll make it to the second snow control inspection a few days prior to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I know they are, ha. First FIS snow control inspection is November 12th. If they haven’t started by then it’s over. If they have some white down they’ll make it to the second snow control inspection a few days prior to the event. They aren't seeing anything prior so good luck to them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I know they are, ha. First FIS snow control inspection is November 12th. If they haven’t started by then it’s over. If they have some white down they’ll make it to the second snow control inspection a few days prior to the event. They better get a ton of snow down in the "cool shot" early next week....not even sure how much they can make but if they don't make it then, there's literally no way they can make any prior to 11/12. The irony is the pattern looks pretty good for them to make a ton of snow after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They aren't seeing anything prior so good luck to them. I think the only window is Monday night through Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think the only window is Monday night through Tuesday night. It is amazing how much snow they can make seemingly overnight. Gonna take a miracle it seems. But if they can KMART will do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think the only window is Monday night through Tuesday night. They might be able to make it..just don't see much if any natural. But then it torches again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They might be able to make it..just don't see much if any natural. But then it torches again. The world cup is on Superstar....that's the trail that stays open until June some years.....so most of the snow will be man made. But even making snow will be very limited....only that small window. They'll have to cover it good. At least most of the week will be dry...so dry with low sun angle should help keep the snow intact. It will just need to withstand the FROPA rains next weekend which will be high dews. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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