ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: It’s hard for me to believe that Orh has only 3 “double digit events”In Novie at 1k , but it just shows how rare they are . However I felt we are “due” for a biggie in November given how prolific the storms have been the last 30 years I wonder how many the E slope of Berks have had Depends how high in elevation you are talking.....above like 2500 feet? Probably a whole bunch. They prob get one every few years. But at like 1200-1400 feet? My guess is maybe a few extra beyond the ORH storms, but not a whole lot more. Maybe like 7 or 8 instead of 3? I'm pretty sure the 11/19/86 storm got double digits on east slopes. Also the 2014 T-day Eve storm I think gave them close to a foot. There's probably a few more in there where ORH got like 8" but they got 11" or something like that. Nov 1980 maybe....also Nov '61 and maybe Nov '44. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's almost impossible to get advisory snows along the coast in SNE during November without a good high placement. I had a thread on this back on eastern that analyzed all the advisory events (or better) for BOS in November and I think every single one had a good high in place except maybe one which was a ULL/cutoff that changed to snow near the end and dropped like 3 inches. Warning snows are even harder. Even for a place like ORH at 1000 feet in the interior, it is not easy to get big dog snows in November. In fact, in 130 years of records, ORH has exactly 3 snow events of double digits in the month of November....Nov 26-27, 1898, Nov 25, 1971, and Nov 10-12, 1987. There's been a fair number of warning events, but most of them are in the 6-8" range. Most recently 8.2" on Nov 15-16, 2018. All those too during tanked PDO times (except maybe 1898). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Grauple here at work in Danielson Ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: Seems like the post-Thanksgiving potential may be tied into exactly what happens within this area of the Pacific. The GFS has a pretty significant low pressure develop and move into the GoA. Quite a bit of latent heat release ahead of it really works to build the PNA out ahead of it. Vastly different then the Euro. I may not be 100% correct on this, but it seems like the GFS has been overestimating the strength on some of these lows in the medium-range going into the GoA. Period! Ive been talking about amplitude magnification in that range as a systemic bias by not just the GFS but all of them, for years in this forum - tho they likely arrive upon the bias by different means and causes. anyway … I suspect it’s a sentiment that has difficulty getting across because acknowledgement means that any along the way of the coveted D9er dystopian dreams might be nightmarishly less awesome. Lol Tricky tho. Giant bombs still happen… replete with their various assortment of reasons for histrionic excitement. I just find it interesting that we haven’t had a 1982, … 92, 78, 93, or 1888 in this era of model ability to sniff up wind storm odors with so much sensitivity. But irrespective of bombs .. seems everything is magnified. Lighter affairs are middling … middling portrayed as majors. etc. Even heat in the summers corrects down. It’s coherent. I pretty much go ahead and assume everything I’m looking at in the D 6-11 range that has ‘neato’ quotient is coming into D 4 some 20 .. 30% of pimpage taken back. I suspect what you’re seeing out there in the m e range is related. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Nice little dippin dots squall in CON just now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Big fatties falling from the sky in Nashua ..nice n juicy 40 ..degrees dentrite edit 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Not one to critique but all these TV networks with sunny icons all week had me shaking my head. Obvious 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 No storm on euro lol. Just a weak system with a few ra/sn shwrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 From a cutter to a clipper on the 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No storm on euro lol. Just a weak system with a few ra/sn shwrs. Best not to be emotionally invested at day 8. A met once told me this . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No storm on euro lol. Just a weak system with a few ra/sn shwrs. The energy got cutoff completely into the SW. 0z hinted at this but 12z went all in. Still a bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No storm on euro lol. Just a weak system with a few ra/sn shwrs. Look at the western ridge now at d9. Lol. Might produce a totally different storm. Euro buries all the energy in the southwest so that still bears watching. But even without that, it’s a pretty ripe pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Look at the western ridge now at d9. Lol. Might produce a totally different storm. Euro buries all the energy in the southwest so that still bears watching. But even without that, it’s a pretty ripe pattern. I know...that's still pretty good. That cutoff is definitely causing issues, but we'll take the western ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Period! Ive been talking about amplitude magnification in that range as a systemic bias by not just the GFS but all of them, for years in this forum - tho they likely arrive upon the bias by different means and causes. anyway … I suspect it’s a sentiment that has difficulty getting across because acknowledgement means that any along the way of the coveted D9er dystopian dreams might be nightmarishly less awesome. Lol Tricky tho. Giant bombs still happen… replete with their various assortment of reasons for histrionic excitement. I just find it interesting that we haven’t had a 1982, … 92, 78, 93, or 1888 in this era of models smelling up wind storm odors with so much sensitivity. But irrespective of bombs .. seems everything is magnified. Lighter affairs are middling … middling portrayed as majors. etc. It’s coherent. I pretty much go ahead and assume everything I’m looking at in the D 6-11 range that has ‘neato’ quotient is coming into D 4 some 20 .. 30% of pimp taken back. I suspect what you’re seeing out there in the m e ranges is related. In reality there is a reason why models go crazy with storms in the medium-to-long range. Ultimately, the goal is for atmospheric equilibrium (that isn't the right term but I can't think of it right now) so in order to achieve this you need storms (too keep it simple) lol. It's certainly going to be a chaotic pattern upcoming, lots of wave breaking across the Pacific and we'll see the pattern shaped across North America by PNA/EPO influences too. It's always great to see a "good pattern" but IMO its how the pieces move and evolve within the pattern that are more important than the pattern itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Look at the western ridge now at d9. Lol. Might produce a totally different storm. Euro buries all the energy in the southwest so that still bears watching. But even without that, it’s a pretty ripe pattern. Unless this is just more euro bias (though I thought that was corrected) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 EPS will look better than the op. Not that we should even be giving it this much attn beyond day 7, but the weather has been boring AF lately. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Just darkened up and I had a brief sleet shower. Sun already out again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Everyone's favorite time of year... lake effect streamers and upslope. Pounding dendrites in these bands. Picked up about 2" of fluff on the mountain in about the last 3-4hours? This one's streaming nicely into town too. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 I know its been discussed before and i guess debunked, But this 12z Euro run kind of buries the s/w SW on this run when i go back and look at it a little more in depth, And don't ask me why i did at this lead ha ha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Everyone's favorite time of year... lake effect streamers and upslope. Pounding dendrites in these bands. Picked up about 2" of fluff on the mountain in about the last 3-4hours? This one's streaming nicely into town too. A lot of it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Another dippin dot squall Minutes and minutes of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS will look better than the op. Not that we should even be giving it this much attn beyond day 7, but the weather has been boring AF lately. Yeah, EPS totally not biting on burying the energy....a lot of solutions that look good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Just darkened up and I had a brief sleet shower. Sun already out again Graupel. Basically think of it has a snowflake that is heavily rimed up into a ball. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah, EPS totally not biting on burying the energy....a lot of solutions that look good 979 east of Chatham looks fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 The table is set by D7 on the EPS....you can see all the key synoptic features....the 50/50 low producing confluence to our north, the shortwave over the central US, a stout western ridge, and solid -NAO to hold the 50/50 in place longer as the shortwave approaches. All very good to see. Obviously we need to get this about 2-3 days closer to take it really seriously, but you'd rather have this general look than not right now 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Snow showers on and off this afternoon. The way Nov should be 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Snow showers on and off this afternoon. The way Nov should be Even during a non winter month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Weeklies look better. Might not have a big relaxation if that holds. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Even during a non winter month? Nov is and always has been a winter month . Especially the second half. That has not changed nor will it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Weeklies look better. Might not have a big relaxation if that holds. The only ugly week on the weeklies was Dec 19-26......we know that will verify too. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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