MJO812 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Icon at 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: So you don’t see any snow tomorrow? Well to be fair when I posted last week that I was expecting 1-3” Tuesday night this week you also didn’t see that . Instead you mention OES rain showers lol We all saw that. But bias correction is more like C-1" Did I say no snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: So you don’t see any snow tomorrow? Well to be fair when I posted last week that I was expecting 1-3” Tuesday night this week you also didn’t see that . Windsexy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Icon at 180 Not far from 6z gfs. Meh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not far from 6z gfs. Meh. Trough digging too much that run anyway....gonna spawn a low near Houston, lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Its QPF was all over the place. Ended up being flaccid as the GFS showed. Qpf is always the lowest scoring. I thought it handled the track well. GFS was pretty stout on qpf for several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Woke up with a solid coating. In and out of squalls all day so far, pretty much constant flakes in the air. Season flipped like a switch, love it. Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Qpf is always the lowest scoring. I thought it handled the track well. GFS was pretty stout on qpf for several runs. I know...but this was really all over. But anyways, we move on lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Miller B incoming on gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Miller B incoming on gfs? That shortwave is on 'roids....could be a crazy solution. 8-9 days out though..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That shortwave is on 'roids....could be a crazy solution. 8-9 days out though..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Looks great for interior areas on gfs but long ways to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 I mean from a pure synoptic standpoint, it doesn't get more classic than that look....you have the confluence to our north from the 50/50 low...split flow over central Canada and a very powerful cutoff shortwave in the OH valley with a western ridge to give it a little room to dig....too bad it's 8-9 days out 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Can we get this in January? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Man Scooter high in a great spot too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 We stall and reach around. What a storm that is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Mass pike on way to hockey tournament in lake placid . Snowing pretty hard at the high spot around Lee. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Seems like the post-Thanksgiving potential may be tied into exactly what happens within this area of the Pacific. The GFS has a pretty significant low pressure develop and move into the GoA. Quite a bit of latent heat release ahead of it really works to build the PNA out ahead of it. Vastly different then the Euro. I may not be 100% correct on this, but it seems like the GFS has been overestimating the strength on some of these lows in the medium-range going into the GoA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I mean from a pure synoptic standpoint, it doesn't get more classic than that look....you have the confluence to our north from the 50/50 low...split flow over central Canada and a very powerful cutoff shortwave in the OH valley with a western ridge to give it a little room to dig....too bad it's 8-9 days out Ya, but ya gotta start somewhere when a big one is a possibility, so we start 8 days out. I’ll take 8 days out with that look any day, over 70-75 8 days out this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya, but ya gotta start somewhere when a big one is a possibility, so we start 8 days out. I’ll take 8 days out with that look any day, over 70-75 8 days out this time of year. Yup , it’s great to see. Prob 25% shot we see advisory snows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 GFS with quite the stormy look after Thanksgiving, even after the big weekend storm. Cold air is over us or nearby throughout the run. Could be quite the stretch, if of course the GFS has a clue. One thing has been for any warmup showing up in the 10-15 day period, has kind of disappeared as we have gotten inside of 10 days and not the other way around. Again, just a grain of salt is taken, especially this early in the season... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Yup , it’s great to see. Prob 25% shot we see advisory snows Who knows how it plays out, but I’d rather see this type of look to the pattern at a weeks lead time in November, than record warmth on the way in a week. Maybe that preverbal rubber band just snapped..? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 GEFS have a nice look too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: GEFS have a nice look too. the 50/50 shifted a good bit west as well... hard not to get excited with this look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Yup , it’s great to see. Prob 25% shot we see advisory snows For late November 8 days out thats really good, though for my area it’s probably more like 15%. A scenario where I rain and West of the river gets buried with a foot is very realistic. The mild Atlantic Ocean often screws us closer to the coast in these early season events, even with a perfect setup. The fact that we even have something to track this early shows how good the pattern is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, George001 said: For late November 8 days out thats really good, though for my area it’s probably more like 15%. A scenario where I rain and West of the river gets buried with a foot is very realistic. The mild Atlantic Ocean often screws us closer to the coast in these early season events, even with a perfect setup. The fact that we even have something to track this early shows how good the pattern is. Ya I think an exceptionally placed high becomes very important in a early season coastal the closer toward the eastern part of southern New England you are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 It is November, so it’s early, but that’s how you’d do a big snow for the region, with something close to that gfs look. Pipe dream for now, but the ingredients are lurking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ya I think an exceptionally placed high becomes very important in a early season coastal the closer toward the eastern part of southern New England you are It's almost impossible to get advisory snows along the coast in SNE during November without a good high placement. I had a thread on this back on eastern that analyzed all the advisory events (or better) for BOS in November and I think every single one had a good high in place except maybe one which was a ULL/cutoff that changed to snow near the end and dropped like 3 inches. Warning snows are even harder. Even for a place like ORH at 1000 feet in the interior, it is not easy to get big dog snows in November. In fact, in 130 years of records, ORH has exactly 3 snow events of double digits in the month of November....Nov 26-27, 1898, Nov 25, 1971, and Nov 10-12, 1987. There's been a fair number of warning events, but most of them are in the 6-8" range. Most recently 8.2" on Nov 15-16, 2018. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 When we've had good November storms up here, Its been in this period generally on thanksgiving week so i would not be surprised if it comes to fruition. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's almost impossible to get advisory snows along the coast in SNE during November without a good high placement. I had a thread on this back on eastern that analyzed all the advisory events (or better) for BOS in November and I think every single one had a good high in place except maybe one which was a ULL/cutoff that changed to snow near the end and dropped like 3 inches. Warning snows are even harder. Even for a place like ORH at 1000 feet in the interior, it is not easy to get big dog snows in November. In fact, in 130 years of records, ORH has exactly 3 snow events of double digits in the month of November....Nov 26-27, 1898, Nov 25, 1971, and Nov 10-12, 1987. There's been a fair number of warning events, but most of them are in the 6-8" range. Most recently 8.2" on Nov 15-16, 2018. It’s hard for me to believe that Orh has only 3 “double digit events”In Novie at 1k , but it just shows how rare they are . However I felt we are “due” for a biggie in November given how prolific the snow storms have been the last 30 years I wonder how many the E slope of Berks have had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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