November 2022 OBS/DISC

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

The sensor artificially loses too much heat to space when it's clear.

How can it become colder than the surrounding temp?  Disclosure: I still depend on the old max-min instrument and have little understanding of how those remotes work.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, tamarack said:

How can it become colder than the surrounding temp?  Disclosure: I still depend on the old max-min instrument and have little understanding of how those remotes work.

Metal can conduct heat or radiate heat away from itself. It's why car surfaces can get frost on them when the air temp is a few degrees above freezing.  That would only occur at night obviously.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

How can it become colder than the surrounding temp?  Disclosure: I still depend on the old max-min instrument and have little understanding of how those remotes work.

The heat is lost on radiational cooling nights on object surfaces...the ground, car roof, house roof, etc. With no advection, 2m gets colder from the bottom-up from the ground surface. Black bodies will radiate more than white. It's why you get the frost forming on the car or ground first before the 2m temp reaches 32F.

We want the sensor to be representative of the free standing air at 2m...not the temperature of the object (whatever material it may be) that is rapidly losing heat to space.

[dendrite]

Scooter beat me to it.

[Typhoon Tip]

50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro still not biting on the GFS/GGEM type push of cold prior to Tday.....keeps it north of the Canadian border. It did trend much better with the blocking, but it wasn't enough on this run.

It actually didn’t look like the GFS really was that much colder in the larger synoptic base, either.

So what it’s really doing is it just has an exceptionally dense b clinic interface extending between Michigan in Central New England and the problem is is that once you lobe that kind of air mass around those green and white mountains it’s going to come all the way down to New Jersey.  …and that’s why we get that look in there. But if one steps back from orbit that’s really still a warm sort of layout …and I know it sounds like it’s paradoxic.  it’s just how our local Geo physical features kind of give us an advantage when it comes to tucking. Play this case of GFS is tucking a paste air mass.  And it really is something how different that is between central New Jersey and Worcester Massachusetts 18z of the 25th.  

[weathafella]

That’s a big change in the pacific on eps in the long range!

[ORH_wxman]

EPS is def a bit colder out in clown range than last night's run. Aleutian ridge quite a bit more poleward which in tandem with the -NAO/AO is a pretty good pattern for winter threats.

Definitely not a lot of consistency on guidance out in the extended as Scott said. That decaying block in the Baffin region will have to be watched....sometimes they can be stubborn. A similar type block helped out on a few events in Dec 1995 when the PAC was kind of meh.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS is def a bit colder out in clown range than last night's run. Aleutian ridge quite a bit more poleward which in tandem with the -NAO/AO is a pretty good pattern for winter threats.

Definitely not a lot of consistency on guidance out in the extended as Scott said. That decaying block in the Baffin region will have to be watched....sometimes they can be stubborn. A similar type block helped out on a few events in Dec 1995 when the PAC was kind of meh.

It's nice to look at the extended and not see the deepest blues at 500mb caressing Tijuana. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

45° in downtown Greenfield. 
We went from wintry appeal to temperate  fall day in 18 hours.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

The heat is lost on radiational cooling nights on object surfaces...the ground, car roof, house roof, etc. With no advection, 2m gets colder from the bottom-up from the ground surface. Black bodies will radiate more than white. It's why you get the frost forming on the car or ground first before the 2m temp reaches 32F.

We want the sensor to be representative of the free standing air at 2m...not the temperature of the object (whatever material it may be) that is rapidly losing heat to space.

Thanks to both of you.  I doubt that's an issue for my glass tube max-min on plastic mount in a 3-sides protected spot.

[ORH_wxman]

55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's nice to look at the extended and not see the deepest blues at 500mb caressing Tijuana. 

Yeah that pattern with the poleward Aleutian ridge and some major weakness in the NAO/AO region is something I like to see heading into December. 
 

 

[78Blizzard]

These temps wouldn't put people in the holiday mood for Black Friday, especially in E areas.

These temps  or CMC's would be more in the holiday spirit.  Still 9 days out though.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

December 2007 or bust in the deep interior! 

[powderfreak]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I thought the GFS did fairly well inside day 2 or so. It did sort of show more of a weaker and disorganized look. Euro was dumping over a foot from PF to northern NH. I thought Euro was too wet at first, then it went dry here for whatever reason. 

As usual a blend, lol.  GGEM and Euro had the axis correct but were too wet.  GFS was too far south but had the lighter QPF right.  The snow maps as expected proved too high as I think it was under 10:1 ratios.  My yard feels like 6-7:1 wet, ha.

[Typhoon Tip]

The continuity between these GFS runs is nothing short of extraordinary

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The continuity between these GFS runs is nothing short of extraordinary

I guess it’s been steady…is it correct? Hope so. 

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I guess it’s been steady…is it correct? Hope so. 

It's not steady 

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's not steady 

Oh I guess I misunderstood Tip then. My mistake. 

[George001]

The models have a cutter but with North Atlantic blocking I don’t buy that. I don’t see why the low would just ram into the block and ignore it, that doesn’t make sense to me. The blocking argues for the low to run into a brick wall and then transfer off the coast before undergoing rapid cyclogenesis, aided by the unusually warm Atlantic Ocean (Miller B).

[CoastalWx]

I don’t mind suppressed vs primary into the Great Lakes on the models. Let’s compromise. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, George001 said:

The models have a cutter but with North Atlantic blocking I don’t buy that. I don’t see why the low would just ram into the block and ignore it, that doesn’t make sense to me. The blocking argues for the low to run into a brick wall and then transfer off the coast before undergoing rapid cyclogenesis, aided by the unusually warm Atlantic Ocean (Miller B).

Because it gets a shot of energy off the pacific and the blocking is less than what the gfs shows. So you get a chilly rain. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

The models have a cutter but with North Atlantic blocking I don’t buy that. I don’t see why the low would just ram into the block and ignore it, that doesn’t make sense to me. The blocking argues for the low to run into a brick wall and then transfer off the coast before undergoing rapid cyclogenesis, aided by the unusually warm Atlantic Ocean (Miller B).

Well I’ll give you credit George…you did not say the words massive blizzard in your post.  I guess that’s some progress. 

[Rtd208]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Well I’ll give you credit George…you did not say the words massive blizzard in your post.  I guess that’s some progress. 

He is the opposite of Snowman19. A tale of two weenies. 

[George001]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Because it gets a shot of energy off the pacific and the blocking is less than what the gfs shows. So you get a chilly rain. 

The blocking isn’t all that strong so the secondary redevelopment being too late for us makes sense, but on the surface the Euro and EPS are plowing the low into Wisconsin like there is no block whatsoever.

[brooklynwx99]

this west based -NAO and extremely deep 50/50 is pretty textbook for a large coastal storm

the signal is there, just still have to fight climo at this point. if this was a month later the alarm bells would already be going off haha 

[cleetussnow]

26 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

He is the opposite of Snowman19. A tale of two weenies. 

Compromise would work.  A normal winter.

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this west based -NAO and extremely deep 50/50 is pretty textbook for a large coastal storm

the signal is there, just still have to fight climo at this point. if this was a month later the alarm bells would already be going off haha 

I’ve heard Will call that a piece of the PV, you call it a 50/50 low cuz it’s in that geographic position so I get that.  So is it a piece of the PV that’s in the 50/50 position?  

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’ve heard Will call that a piece of the PV, you call it a 50/50 low cuz it’s in that geographic position so I get that.  So is it a piece of the PV that’s in the 50/50 position?  

yeah, it’s basically just an area of below normal heights around Nova Scotia. a legit one forms from a block, and it leads to confluence over SE Canada that locks a HP and cold air in 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’ve heard Will call that a piece of the PV, you call it a 50/50 low cuz it’s in that geographic position so I get that.  So is it a piece of the PV that’s in the 50/50 position?  

Yes frequently a 50/50 low can just be a PV lobe that sets up shop there. 

[WinterWolf]

17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, it’s basically just an area of below normal heights around Nova Scotia. a legit one forms from a block, and it leads to confluence over SE Canada that locks a HP and cold air in 

 

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes frequently a 50/50 low can just be a PV lobe that sets up shop there. 

Thank you both for the explanation.