Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Higher terrain in SNE may struggle to hit 40F for the next week after today. Full on winter in NNE...esp at elevation. Should be plenty of Tip's pond ice (albeit thin) by middle of next week. T-day and beyond still kind of a wildcard on model guidance. GEFS looks MUCH colder than EPS for Tday weekend. So we gotta see how that unfolds over the next few days on model guidance. Had pond ice yesterday morning in the kettle hole the kid skate on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Had pond ice yesterday morning in the kettle hole the kid skate on. With really weak sun angle now, I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of local ponds with ice on them by next Wednesday. Even when you're hitting like 38-41F during the day, it's only for a few hours and you have a lot of shade now these days at 2-3pm with the low sun angle. Then you're going 18-25F at night for 10+ hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 15F lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: 15F lol That is definitely the icebox for CT....only 18.9⁰ here that morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 It wasn't that cold there. He uses an unsheltered sensor there in his "valley". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 GFS is showing the colder Tday and beyond solution....you can see the overrunning setup there with the classic Scooter high from the Canadian prairies sprawling east. Euro does not show this though....this is where the model disagreement is on how much that cold presses south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS is showing the colder Tday and beyond solution....you can see the overrunning setup there with the classic Scooter high from the Canadian prairies sprawling east. Euro does not show this though....this is where the model disagreement is on how much that cold presses south. Great look there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 I am thinking about moving my Davis somewhere else on the property, but currently is in a perfect position relative to trees/sun/house. It just so happens to be at the lowest point of the property. Might add a second weather station. Any good recommendations that aren't on on the Davis level of cost but have a good thermometer/hygrometer combo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Great look there. Yeah you have the cold firmly established prior to the system getting in here. That's a classic long duration overrunning look there. Probably not gonna happen, but that is what you want to see for those looking at model guidance for next weekend if you are trying to get a wintry system in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS is showing the colder Tday and beyond solution....you can see the overrunning setup there with the classic Scooter high from the Canadian prairies sprawling east. Euro does not show this though....this is where the model disagreement is on how much that cold presses south. -NAO flexing a bit? Looks like the whole system slows down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: -NAO flexing a bit? Looks like the whole system slows down... Yes....the remnant EPO/PNA ridge sort of teams up with the reotgrading NAO block and forms a ridge-bridge right in the Baffin Island/N Davis Strait region.....it presses that PV lobe down into SE Canada....below is the look on Tday on that run. This is what sets the stage for the winter wx. If we don't get that, then it will be pretty mild like the Euro.....night and day solutions. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes....the remnant EPO/PNA ridge sort of teams up with the reotgrading NAO block and forms a ridge-bridge right in the Baffin Island/N Davis Strait region.....it presses that PV lobe down into SE Canada....below is the look on Tday on that run. This is what sets the stage for the winter wx. If we don't get that, then it will be pretty mild like the Euro.....night and day solutions. Amazing the difference in look, especially being "only" 7-8 days out. One of them should start to cave fairly soon I would think. This is a pretty large scale pattern, versus a system possibly phasing or how close to the coast it might be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes....the remnant EPO/PNA ridge sort of teams up with the reotgrading NAO block and forms a ridge-bridge right in the Baffin Island/N Davis Strait region.....it presses that PV lobe down into SE Canada....below is the look on Tday on that run. This is what sets the stage for the winter wx. If we don't get that, then it will be pretty mild like the Euro.....night and day solutions. GFS has a legit classic pattern progression with the retrograding -NAO into Canada and the 50/50 pushing off of Nova Scotia... obviously it's far out there, but this is the type of setup where you have a lot of pieces needed for an anomalous event to take place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GFS has a legit classic pattern progression with the retrograding -NAO into Canada and the 50/50 pushing off of Nova Scotia... obviously it's far out there, but this is the type of setup where you have a lot of pieces needed for an anomalous event to take place 8 out of 10 times these things don't work out but odds are a little better this time. The Arctic blocking looks real. GEFS also agrees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 that’s a lot of blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Here's GEFS....def agrees with the OP. But you'd like to see more guidance on board before thinking more wintry solution for Tday weekend. FWIW, GGEM did trend quite a bit toward the GFS suite, but not all the way there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 On 11/14/2022 at 7:31 AM, dryslot said: Next shot looks the weekend after thanksgiving for wintry weather out side of the areas that will see snow weds. I've been liking this time frame now for a while now, Been on the models and their ensembles for the last 10 days or so, This one could be a significant producer for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 1 hour ago, dendrite said: It wasn't that cold there. He uses an unsheltered sensor there in his "valley". Why would an unsheltered sensor matter in cold calm? I had 21 and many were in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Why would an unsheltered sensor matter in cold calm? I had 21 and many were in the teens. The sensor artificially loses too much heat to space when it's clear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 15 minutes ago, dendrite said: The sensor artificially loses too much heat to space when it's clear. We need a term for that when weenies purposely do that. He's been called out about that. Weenieational cooling. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We need a term for that when weenies purposely do that. He's been called out about that. Weenieational cooling. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 So who did better for the storm we have the last night and today? GFS or the ECM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Just now, Snowcrazed71 said: So who did better for the storm we have the last night and today? GFS or the ECM? Euro and GFS were pretty darn close inside of 36h...but I'd say the GFS was prob worse at like D3 and 4....it was flatter than a lot of guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 I thought the GFS did fairly well inside day 2 or so. It did sort of show more of a weaker and disorganized look. Euro was dumping over a foot from PF to northern NH. I thought Euro was too wet at first, then it went dry here for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Euro still not biting on the GFS/GGEM type push of cold prior to Tday.....keeps it north of the Canadian border. It did trend much better with the blocking, but it wasn't enough on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 I think the HRRR did well with this myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Western US is different on the GFS suite vs euro too. Looks like euro guidance makes the trough go negative quicker too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Still big difference between eps and GEFS for the thanksgiving weekend timeframe. It’s far enough out but someone will cave if they don’t meet in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro still not biting on the GFS/GGEM type push of cold prior to Tday.....keeps it north of the Canadian border. It did trend much better with the blocking, but it wasn't enough on this run. I think the T-Day system will be a tall order right now however Euro cutter causes a wave break that might help big time in early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Pretty big changes after that storm as well. With no real coherent Nina signal on the tropics...my guess is model volatility will be high. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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