CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Want that at around 180 It likely won't be...but that's ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: I would like to see it earlier in the season anyways to help fight off any -PNA. It's still early, so any help we can get in the northern latitude would be useful. Don't need a 4SD block...just a little help. Yeah that's why I want it in early/mid December when the climo is more precarious. Gives us more wiggle room. Later December into January we can still do ok in a lot of flawed patterns as long as we are avoiding the AK pig. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: People forecasting the next cold snap before we have even seen the depths of the warm-up. Pull out the darts. Sorry guys, however much you want to believe the screen-- it's not that good; not even close. I don't have my Pope decoder ring. What? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hope you are right about 2000-2001, bro...perfect season for my hood. It has some issues, but not a bad analog. Of course no 2 seasons are alike but I do like the similarities. It's always interesting in Nov to look ahead. Rolling forward as Will said December could indeed feature that Scandi Ridge. Think I had 15 in 2000. My first year on the Moosup Sterling border and the stark contrast with SWRI made me all giggly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don't have my Pope decoder ring. What? Just stare at the models. They have all the answers. Meteorology deserves a lot more respect than economics as a field of study. We have ourselves to blame. 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 For aspects other than merely cold one should rather not see blocks that big on a chart anyway… Blocks that big enter into dreaded tendencies for “compression suppression” blue balls … It’s in the modulation that your lube ups lurk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Just stare at the models. They have all the answers. Meteorology deserves a lot more respect than economics as a field of study. We have ourselves to blame. Actually Mr Pope there is more than modeling to forecast a change. One can see beyond if you know where to look. I have the magic ring though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Just stare at the models. They have all the answers. Meteorology deserves a lot more respect than economics as a field of study. We have ourselves to blame. So are you saying this is 1995 and we should all believe the models are wrong because this weekend will be in the 70s? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So are you saying this is 1995 and we should all believe the models are wrong because this weekend will be in the 70s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 Whether the charts have a big glorious EPOridge perfectly and idealy modulating into a positive PNA is just that: that’s the idealize model. Less often does one see the idealize model play out. FWIW, what I’m looking at over the next two weeks is a classic evolution towards a pattern shift; you first get a tendency for these things to dig into the west/high latitudes …and then the natural progression you end up situating aspects further east - that’s all we’re looking at here. So yes it can get warm in the foreground vs much colder later but …can also just do a tepid version of that variance …we just have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 Maybe there is some confusion. I don't think anybody is saying the arctic hounds are unleashed and we're blanketed with snow as if this is a scene from Game of Thrones. I look at this as a change that allows for wintry events (obviously interior favored) and if this lasts into December, increases the chances region wide. It's very simple. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe there is some confusion. I don't think anybody is saying the arctic hounds are unleashed and we're blanketed with snow as if this is a scene from Game of Thrones. I look at this as a change that allows for wintry events (obviously interior favored) and if this lasts into December, increases the chances region wide. It's very simple. I tend to agree here. I offer there is a chance for wintry appeal after the 15th … pretty much not changing that for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Fake, but unfortunately real enough that I turned the stove on. 60F in the house is a little much for me. 25F this morning. Heat on. Really wish the winter heating bills were fake. Heat pump though on electric gets the chill out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don't have my Pope decoder ring. What? The Pope is all over the place as always…maybe the Pope is on the Pipe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: People forecasting the next cold snap before we have even seen the depths of the warm-up. Pull out the darts. Sorry guys, however much you want to believe the screen-- it's not that good; not even close. Correct! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 I don’t get you guys(Pope and 1717)? Nobody here is saying anything massive or imminent, just that things look to shift to a more seasonable late fall, early winter like regime after mid month. The signs are being shown on the modeling…. ensembles and Ops runs from multiple suites. I mean isn’t that what we do here? There’s nothing wishful/wishcasting about what we’re saying or discussing. This warm weather is really nice…but it’s gonna change and what’s wrong with saying as much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I don’t get you guys(Pope and 1717)? Nobody here is saying anything massive or imminent, just that things look to shift to a more seasonable late fall, early winter like regime after mid month. The signs are being shown on the modeling…. ensembles and Ops runs from multiple suites. I mean isn’t that what we do here? There’s nothing wishful/wishcasting about what we’re saying or discussing. This warm weather is really nice…but it’s gonna change and what’s wrong with saying as much? Lots of memes that nobody laughs at and white smoke coming out of chimneys. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 What a great stretch of weather. Yesterday was gorgeous, today is gorgeous and the next few days look pretty damn nice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: People forecasting the next cold snap before we have even seen the depths of the warm-up. Pull out the darts. Sorry guys, however much you want to believe the screen-- it's not that good; not even close. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lots of memes that nobody laughs at and white smoke coming out of chimneys. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 At work in Danielson 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 The Pope hasn’t been the same since he fell on his face on the Jan snowstorm a while back where he dry humped a certain model showcasing a complete whiff and was eventually castrated by the board, went on sabbatical…and somehow returned months later without notice. We remember. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 28 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The Pope hasn’t been the same since he fell on his face on the Jan snowstorm a while back where he dry humped a certain model showcasing a complete whiff and was eventually castrated by the board, went on sabbatical…and somehow returned months later without notice. We remember. You will be scolded, Repent now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 Epic stretch upcoming . Just ..warm . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 54 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 Its pretty hard to argue against a pattern change when we're going from a huge AK pig currently, to a -EPO with initial dump of cold out west (while we continue to torch), and then eventually the EPO rolling over on itself and ending the furnace here. You can argue whether that means first snow chances or just merely chillier/normal weather for mid/late November, but it's a far cry from what we've seen and what we're going to see for the next week to 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 55 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: What a great stretch of weather. Yesterday was gorgeous, today is gorgeous and the next few days look pretty damn nice. This is what I've been saying. November is usually the worst month of the year for weather in NE, just weeks of gloom, sticks, and temps maxing in the high 40s. This pattern is a gift. Many would pay to guarantee this pattern all of Oct and November with a hard flip around Thanksgiving. That looks to be the case this year and yet the weenies are still dissatisfied....tsk tsk. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: This is what I've been saying. November is usually the worst month of the year for weather in NE, just weeks of gloom, sticks, and temps maxing in the high 40s. This pattern is a gift. A few would pay to guarantee this pattern all of Oct and November with a hard flip around Thanksgiving. That looks to be the case this year and yet the weenies are still dissatisfied....tsk tsk. fyp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 24 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Epic stretch upcoming . Just ..warm . All time highs challenged? Near 80 for multiple days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Its pretty hard to argue against a pattern change when we're going from a huge AK pig currently, to a -EPO with initial dump of cold out west (while we continue to torch), and then eventually the EPO rolling over on itself and ending the furnace here. You can argue whether that means first snow chances or just merely chillier/normal weather for mid/late November, but it's a far cry from what we've seen and what we're going to see for the next week to 10 days. I don't know where this obnoxious mindset that "everyone is a moron because its warm, even though everyone expected it", comes from. It has to be rooted in some sort of retaliatory defense mechanism. Revisit in a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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