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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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Kind of interesting… as an aside despite passing through this pretty impressive negative EP over the next 3 to 4 days, the actual 850 mbar spread across the Canadian shield is not really that representative. I mean we benefit as cold enthusiast for actually getting transport from those regions but this EPO doesn’t seem to be loading as deeply - perhaps because it’s early in the season but I’m not sure. I mean the sun has set over the polar cap casting the 6 mo “eternal” darkness up there… I mean there should be plenty of cold genesis going on. Maybe this is one of those times were lacking cryo- does have a feedback? 

If that 0ZGFS is onto that next huge negative EPO burst out there in the extended… It’s also not modeled to have very impressive -850 mb anomalies. 

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16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:


Kind of interesting… as an aside despite passing through this pretty impressive negative EP over the next 3 to 4 days, the actual 850 mbar spread across the Canadian shield is not really that representative. I mean we benefit as cold enthusiast for actually getting transport from those regions but this EPO doesn’t seem to be loading as deeply - perhaps because it’s early in the season but I’m not sure. I mean the sun has set over the polar cap casting the 6 mo “eternal” darkness up there… I mean there should be plenty of cold genesis going on. Maybe this is one of those times were lacking cryo- does have a feedback? 

If that 0ZGFS is onto that next huge negative EPO burst out there in the extended… It’s also not modeled to have very impressive -850 mb anomalies. 

I think if that does come to fruition, those -850’s will catch up(become more impressive) as we move forward in time. 

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2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I am no professional when looking at the long range ensembles, but that to my untrained eye did not look very good....reminded me a bit of that map you posted from 2011 a couple days back.

EPS luckily did Not look like that. But regardless we’ll probably relax to a point first 10 days maybe December? Give it take. If that blocking doesn’t happen, it will be mild. 

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Just from an orbital perspective … it would be unlikely from this starting calendar time to sustain.  

Having said that … there’s been vacillating going on in that time range beyond Thanksgiving … which is fine and normal but … there are numerical telecons that favor colder looks.  Modestly more confidence falls in that court. 

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Higher terrain in SNE may struggle to hit 40F for the next week after today. Full on winter in NNE...esp at elevation. Should be plenty of Tip's pond ice (albeit thin) by middle of next week.

T-day and beyond still kind of a wildcard on model guidance. GEFS looks MUCH colder than EPS for Tday weekend. So we gotta see how that unfolds over the next few days on model guidance.

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