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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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There's something there ...  23-28th...  take your pick of which ensemble member, about 2/3rds of them carry the membership on something during those days..

But ( duh ) they vary quite a bit. There's limited next to N/S in figuring out what "that" will be, with range between cutters, to Del Marva bombs.     

I'm willing to side a bit more with Will on the NAO. Though whether it's orienting west or eastern limb, not withstanding...   The co-lateral polar index mode (the conjunction of the AO and NAO) is in fact negative and continuing to slide - albeit -1 SD by then. But the trend line's established in that range now for few days of consistency.  The AO counterpart is the intriguing aspect, as it has coincided with the MJO extended out look along their correlative handshake.  The problem is...the MJO is not being very consistent - last nights Euro suite sort of stymied stem-wound it again in 7 and lost that unfurled look heading into the phase 8.

It's like there's an epic battle between the AO and the subordinate WPO-EPO-NAO indexes versus the ENSO ...which they are in pretty much a direct competing phase state right now/thru these next couple of weeks.   Not sure what to do about that...I feel if the ENSO wasn't interfering so negatively we be doing a 1995er. 

No ...neither of these index modes cause a storm... The idea here is is that one state detracts from potential, the other adds... 

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37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There's something there ...  23-28th...  take your pick of which ensemble member, about 2/3rds of them carry the membership on something during those days..

But ( duh ) they vary quite a bit. There's limited next to N/S in figuring out what "that" will be, with range between cutters, to Del Marva bombs.     

I'm willing to side a bit more with Will on the NAO. Though whether it's orienting west or eastern limb, not withstanding...   The co-lateral polar index mode (the conjunction of the AO and NAO) is in fact negative and continuing to slide - albeit -1 SD by then. But the trend line's established in that range now for few days of consistency.  The AO counterpart is the intriguing aspect, as it has coincided with the MJO extended out look along their correlative handshake.  The problem is...the MJO is not being very consistent - last nights Euro suite sort of stymied stem-wound it again in 7 and lost that unfurled look heading into the phase 8.

It's like there's an epic battle between the AO and the subordinate WPO-EPO-NAO indexes versus the ENSO ...which they are in pretty much a direct competing phase state right now/thru these next couple of weeks.   Not sure what to do about that...I feel if the ENSO wasn't interfering so negatively we be doing a 1995er. 

No ...neither of these index modes cause a storm... The idea here is is that one state detracts from potential, the other adds... 

Perhaps side with Kev?

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15 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can see the AO/NAO trying to ramp up on the EPS. We lose the PNA ridging out west but at least we still have cross-polar flow via the -WPO. This pattern isn't super cold, but it's not warm either. Prob a lot of chances in that type of pattern if it holds into December.

 

 

Nov14_00zEPS360.png

Wow 1995 deja vu

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Yeah pardon my sensible weather bias right now but let’s try and keep some of that nasty, frozen slop away for at least another couple weeks or so. There’s still another round or two of dreaded leaf cleanup to take care of around these parts. Thankfully the biggest bunches are out of the way but those last dozen or so loads can be a real pain in the ol rump with frozen shizzle added into the equation. 

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14 minutes ago, Snowedin said:

Yeah pardon my sensible weather bias right now but let’s try and keep some of that nasty, frozen slop away for at least another couple weeks or so. There’s still another round or two of dreaded leaf cleanup to take care of around these parts. Thankfully the biggest bunches are out of the way but those last dozen or so loads can be a real pain in the ol rump with frozen shizzle added into the equation. 

hope you get 3" of ice

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