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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

12z NAM is all jacked up on Wednesday.

 

6z EURO was looking nice too, not quite as amped.

 

It always ( almost invariably..) is that way for the 60+ hour range for that guidance.  Also, it'll tend to a NW bias that corrects SE gradually.

Folks should try to remember both those facets as we turn winter pages... (most likely not, because that's a NARCAN to adult a chart toward less dopamine LOL)

That said, ...yeah, I'm seeing a common thread among the guidance' et al.  It's a minor coastal that despite the colder pattern completing its reconstruction of the hemisphere ( which is why-for the minor coastal in the first place - ), it is occurring/running up astride an air mass that's just not quite cold enough. 

So it's hard to parse out the NW bias and amp happy stuff, vs the the marginal+ atmosphere.   If this thing had just that much more cold, it would feed back both in forcing less NW track, but also hole-punch the +1.5 850s and start cotton balling the hills...typical. 

There''ll be white ptype involvement up near y'all.  It's still not impossible for that to happen down this way...  The GGEM at 12z is both slightly colder ( by perhaps -.5C) along the NW aspect of the cyclonic envelope. However, unfortunately...the low is a little stronger, so there's WAA off the deck to offset those initial hours.  This seemed to more than less also be the case with the 12z GFS. 

It's all about the novelty of seeing snow in the air for the first time.  This has a chance...   It's a marginal+ look right now, smells like snow while it's raining with cold hands.   Nasty nasty metallic raw November typology.   Get this to correct marginal- would help the novelty cause. 

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37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

That said, ...yeah, I'm seeing a common thread among the guidance' et al.  It's a minor coastal that despite the colder pattern completing its reconstruction of the hemisphere ( which is why-for the minor coastal in the first place - ), it is occurring/running up astride an air mass that's just not quite cold enough. 

So it's hard to parse out the NW bias and amp happy stuff, vs the the marginal+ atmosphere.   If this thing had just that much more cold, it would feed back both in forcing less NW track, but also hole-punch the +1.5 850s and start cotton balling the hills...typical. 

 

Yup that’s exactly what I’ve been thinking.  If there was more cold or a bit more resistance, this no doubt would lean SE… but the air is rather marginal so it’s hard to say it can’t amplify a bit more into the warmth.

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