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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

The change in air will definitely be noticeable. Probably a windex squall or dying LES. Nice cold air

Yeah I think many will see first flakes from flurries/dying snow showers late next week/weekend…esp over interior if they don’t see them early Wednesday from that system approaching. 

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43 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Natural progression  C-NNE  starts,you will probably get coating to an inch in squalls before the next 10 days are out  

I mean that’s good I suppose.. but if we waste the pattern for 10 days before it flips back warm.. I’ll be disappointed. This had the look of solid interior SNE snows 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS was sort of siding with keeping the cold through Tday…even if not quite as cold as later next week/weekend. 
 

It seems the -EPO evaporates and sort of goes more into a -WPO pattern but there is still some ridging in the AO region. 

I've been noticing that, too .. kind of an echo of former synoptic state.  

I've seen that over the years and the peregrinations of NP/EPO enough with these pattern handling in the guidance to know,  uuusually that's like a 'place -holder?' 

If a perhaps a stand-by signal to not let one's guard down.  There are background physics that still want ridging to prevail.  The signal for EPO resurgence is there.  But ( for the general audience) we have to keep in mind, these ensemble means will inherently grow increasingly entropic out in time.  The fact that there is a modest echo in that region, beyond D6 ..8,  means there are members most likely both reflecting those back ground physical tendencies, as well as outright demoing a love mound response ...being skewed toward entropy (disorder) by the those that are not.    

The other aspect that I'm seeing is the wild ride in the MJO, which is statistically well correlated ( oddly enough ...) with the AO. The right RMM fields with +AO, and vice versa.   The present long lead on MJO is a rather robust retry in the Phase 7/8 fields, and out there around that time ( thanks giggedy or so) there is also a significant number of American members dipping the AO negative.  You can see traces of that in the distant poler-stereographic heights of the GEFs, too.   

I don't buy a flip back to warm December to be blunt.  Yeah...sure, we'll see. But if anything, what techniques avail are moving the other direction.  

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Personal Boston forecast bust…In town visiting my daughter today. Based on model runs earlier last week I said forget about any outdoor stuff today. Told her to plan for rain at best, tempest at worst. Got busy at work and didn’t check forecast before arriving last night. After spending the day bar hopping downtown with temps in the low 70’s and a comforting summer breeze I’ve lost all credibility as a weather hobbyist. Boston weather humbled me today, I’m sure the Bruins will do the same to “my” Sabres tonight. 

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3 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Personal Boston forecast bust…In town visiting my daughter today. Based on model runs earlier last week I said forget about any outdoor stuff today. Told her to plan for rain at best, tempest at worst. Got busy at work and didn’t check forecast before arriving last night. After spending the day bar hopping downtown with temps in the low 70’s and a comforting summer breeze I’ve lost all credibility as a weather hobbyist. Boston weather humbled me today, I’m sure the Bruins will do the same to “my” Sabres tonight. 

You may have been able to prevent some of your humility if you'd considered that "earlier last week" aspect.  Lol.  Maybe our expectations in the wild ranges of autumn are just little high ?   Unless by earlier in the week you mean the day before - but that sounds like it was 5 forecast.  

And your handle is amusing (then).   "Humbled Buffalo Bumble"

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You may have been able to prevent some of your humility if you'd considered that "earlier last week" aspect.  Lol.  Maybe our expectations in the wild ranges of autumn are just little high ?   Unless by earlier in the week you mean the day before - but that sounds like it was 5 forecast.  

Haha, totally my bad. I saw a New England bomb and totally got sucked in. All model runs after that were just noise. 

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Picked about a bushel of assorted chili peppers today.  Some red, some still green.  Last harvest from the garden.  :(

Everything that'll winter over comes inside for good tomorrow.  Which is good as I'm tired of dragging the 150lb Kaffir Lime tree in and out of the house for it to enjoy these past few weeks of warmth.

Still 60 here at 5:35pm on November 12th.  Torch!

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3 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Haha, totally my bad. I saw a New England bomb and totally got sucked in. All model runs after that were just noise. 

Are you here for a longish while?   If you're a snow monger ...you'd be right to return this next week.  Some guidance has the LE climo snow hose suffocating the typical zones back there... 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Are you here for a longish while?   If you're a snow monger ...you'd be right to return this next week.  Some guidance has the LE climo snow hose suffocating the typical zones back there... 

Back to BUF on Monday, chasing the lake effect snow next week as the snow monger in me compels me to do. 

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2 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Back to BUF on Monday, chasing the lake effect snow next week as the snow monger in me compels me to do. 

I was but a small boy in Kalamazoo Michigan - I didn't become a "masshole" until I was early teenage and moved to this region of New England...  But Kalamazoo resides just barely east of the western Michigan LE belt.  Once in a blue moon the belt would shift and the 1/16th mi vis would hide the city-scape. By and large..we were always watching the white wall just to our west. It was horror for a fledgling little obsessive weather dweeb. Pure torture!  Alas, there would be no chase as a 9-year old.  

Actually, there was often another band that was NE of the city two. The really infuriating days were when the afternoon sun was setting behind a fuzzy gray wall west, while the NE belt was brilliantly lit. Straight overhead were meager scattered virga busted CU with a flurry or two.   Those bands were notorious 8"ers... there.  18" in Van Burren County.   They are actually under an Advisory tonight for the season's first LE event. 

I miss that some... Some of the best one's are when it got so cold the whole structure just deteriorated into this cryo mist... I delivered papers in 0 F, with chalks dust blowing sideways and the orb of the sun dimly visible ... It was like a tundra scene.  

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13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I was but a small boy in Kalamazoo Michigan - I didn't become a "masshole" until I was early teenage and moved to this region of New England...  But Kalamazoo resides just barely east of the western Michigan LE belt.  Once in a blue moon the belt would shit and the 1/16th mi vis would hide the city-scape. By and large..we were always watching the white wall just to our west. It was horror for a fledgling little obsessive weather dweeb. Pure torture!  Alas, there would be no chase at an 9-year old.  

Actually, there was often another band that was NE of the city two. The really infuriating days was when the afternoon sun was setting behind a fuzzy gray wall west, while NE belt was brilliantly lit, and we had meager scattered virga busted CU with a flurry or two over head.   Those bands were notorious 8"ers... there.  18" in Van Burren County.   There's actually under an Advisory tonight for the season's first LE event. 

I miss that some... Some of the best one's are when it got so cold the whole structure just deteriorated into this cryo mist... I delivered papers in 0 F, with chalks dust blowing sideways and the orb of the sun dimly visible ... It was like a tundra scene.  

Dude…we lived dual adolescent lives but off different Great Lakes. I grew up about 20 miles west of Syracuse, or 15 miles south of the Lake Ontario snow belt. Many midwinter days after arctic fronts passed by under cobalt blue skies with temps in the teens and a stiff W/NW wind while the northern sky was black as night. My ground was frozen with 1/4” post FROPA snow cover while competing school districts to the north were canceling sporting events due to 36-48” episodes. First chase to the far northern kingdom 15 miles away post drivers license was enlightening. 

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34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol ok. I guess far NE CT at 1 K is ocean like S Wey ?

“Interior….even into SNE” is going to favor places like N ORH county out to Berkshires. Your interior but pretty far south in context to where NNE/CNE turns into SNE. 

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45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol ok. I guess far NE CT at 1 K is ocean like S Wey ?

You're too funny man. You're the one that said 1-3"/2-4" event just yesterday.... Now you're saying no events through Thanksgiving.

Come on man, You're smart enough to know that the pattern will probably change from what we're seeing today. That's the nature of the models. 

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