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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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I realize the GGEM ( Canadian model ...) isn't very high on people's deterministic priority list, but that model's extended range is seriously loading the hammer cold into the Canadian shield!  Much more deeply so comparing it's supposed superior competition in the Euro.

It's interesting because all three still show the strong -EPO burst. The synoptic appeal not significantly different from one another to suggest meaning.  Days 6 - 10 swells the heights dramatically over the eastern limb of the EPO domain region...   Yet, there is the significant disparity among the guidance as to the mass/cold loading that results over Canada.

The reason I'm bringing this up is because these -EPO ... I've seen this before.  The scale and extent of cold that results down stream is not always correct and can get colder - the models see the mid/U/A table cloth, but don't set it right below until nearer terms ( so to speak..).  I've been thinking for awhile that this -EPO is quite strong looking - 'where's the beef!?'  It's an attribute the models can fumble with.  Not sure the guidance advancements over the recent decade really necessarily improve that one specific performance - 'cold loading over Canada'.  Maybe...   But the GGEM is < -30C at 850 over a fairly large area mid continent.  The Euro is just -22, within a much smaller circumvallate of -20 in pocketed plumes. That's deeply cold, but not entirely bonkers for November above the latitude of Lake Superior. The GGEM is HUGE in areal comparison and much deeper by as much as -12 to -14 C!  ...

GFS is in between... It has the deeper cold, but creates a kind of W-E barrier jet across JB that ablates it from getting much farther S out in the deep range.  I guess there no guarantee that a -3 SD EPO has to load the cold all the way down.. but the GFS's construct does look unusual. It also rushes the end of the -EPO, and tries to send the hemisphere winter packing...  Mm. Okay.  who knows on that. 

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4 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Spoke too soon. Dumping

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

Had 0.94" thru 7 this morning with temp 61 at that time.  Average low here for 11/12 is 26.  Steady light RA currently, but the thin red line that's deluging you lost its northerly 1/3 about 1/2 hour ago so no downpour here.  Precip looks to taper off early aft.  Lighter clouds visible to the NW so maybe back to showers.

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16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

December 2015 style warmth

The scalar comparison is for all intents and purposes dead nuts imho.  I think you mean Christmas massacre? 

However,  2015 likely/necessarily wins relative to climate.   It was 71 Xmas morning... I recall a town walk with the family in cargo shorts and sandals. I almost felt embarrassed, perhaps 'mocking' and setting myself up for neg karma for it.  Over the course of the walk, I just got lost in acceptance..I recall distinctly a kind of Stockholm Syndrome: sympathizing entirely with warm enthusiasts.  The immersion was too enrapturing to ignore..  I mused, ".. fine, let's do this through spring and really rattle the climate change cages"  LOL.    Little did we know, huh - 

But yeah, we're doing something similar this morning actually..  the old cool front before the real cold frontal wedge of 'warm-able' air, and it might actually be similar synoptics. 

Click Image For Station Plots

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