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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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18 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

It’s muggy AF. 

57/55 in RN/+RN heading into mid-November is a warm night up here.  Dews in the mid-50s at this time of year is noteworthy. 

However it’s a step down from multiple evenings in the 70s… so it feels like a natural progression despite being so far above normal. 

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36 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

57/55 in RN/+RN heading into mid-November is a warm night up here.  Dews in the mid-50s at this time of year is noteworthy. 

However it’s a step down from multiple evenings in the 70s… so it feels like a natural progression despite being so far above normal. 

65/64.  We AGW

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Focus the next several hours will be across interior southern CT with upslope flow in a moisture-laden airmass with MUCAPE values of 500-1000 J/KG.

PW on the 00Z OKX sounding was 1.97, shattering the all-time value. This is 4 to 5 SD above normal.

This is clearly an anomalous regime we are in with respect to this northward late season push of tropical air. Thus there is a concern for a fine line of convection to develop as the front
and max forcing coincides with the anomalous moisture rich environment later this morning. The potential is there for lower top convection possibly triggering a very short round of
severe weather.

Temperatures will likely approach records highs in a few locations like LGA, JFK, BDR, and ISP

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