snowman19 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Is that run off of the KFS or Vice-versa? It’s hard to believe that guy is actually a meteorologist. Very hard to believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Where does Kevin find this shit? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: I still do that nowadays I just don't sleep lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Good luck Rain for all except NNE Yeah it’s too early for us outside of NNE, not enough cold air yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Where does Kevin find this shit? There always somebody on the internet who will show you want you want to see. That guy is kind of a joke lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 due to the lack of cold air with climo working against us, we need a big slow moving nor’easter that creates its own cold air via dynamic cooling to have a shot at snow. The pattern on the models does not support that, the NAO is positive and the western ridge is farther west than ideal. That supports the idea of the low running inland with limited secondary redevelopment (Miller B). The western ridge is quite strong so it’s possible the storm and trends more amplified, which would increase the QPF. Even if that happens though, that would just mean more rain for us. That map posted above saying my area has a 33% chance of wintry weather seems way too high. NNE could cash in but for us in SNE we probably need to wait a month or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Rear view mirror forecasting. Damn those initial conditions and those useless weeklies. Oops Phase 8 --> Phase 5 and 6 next week. The big cold already blowing its load out west. We get the transient remnants. A "cold" front takes us to normal and then we back to +AN. Rain for everyone except the far interior. Mowvember - nicer lawns in Nov than May. SST's in GOM still in mid 50's. Finish +10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Tomorrow looks gorgeous. 70's with dews. Records fall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Where does Kevin find this shit? His boy Elon Musky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: That guy is a toolbag 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Where does Kevin find this shit? Take a look at his twitter. It’s honestly painful, just unreal. All the pro mets rip him apart. I’ve finally found someone worse than JB and Henry Margusity, I didn’t think it was actually possible but that clown takes the cake, hands down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Tomorrow looks gorgeous. 70's with dews. Records fall? sure, it'll be a lovely day to step outside in the heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: Take a look at his twitter. It’s honestly painful, just unreal. All the pro mets rip him apart. I’ve finally found someone worse than JB and Henry Margusity, I didn’t think it was actually possible but that clown takes the cake, hands down By "It uses topography ", he means "I"... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 25 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Review mirror forecasting. Damn those initial conditions and those useless weeklies. Oops Phase 8 --> Phase 5 and 6 next week. The big cold already blowing its load out west. We get the transient remnants. A "cold" front takes us to normal and then we back to +AN. Rain for everyone except the far interior. Mowvember - nicer lawns in Nov than May. SST's in GOM still in mid 50's. Finish +10? So CONUS wide torch next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 NAM is sufficient in the outer grid intervals already. ‘Sporting a -6C, 0 and +6, at 800, 900, and mid BL respectively. Under a sub 540dm hydrostat as far S as LGA. Plenty cold enough at least ~60 hrs that if any dynamics were in play at that time ( which there is not .. just sayn’) that 43 SFC T gets obliterated Caveats are aplenty…. 1, it’s the NAM. Heh, sarcasm aside, the lack of cryosphere in the area is likely why-for the +6. Hefty lapse rate. But those numbers aren’t hugely unreasonable when considering the backdrop synoptics ongoing as we transition later Sunday onward … The NAM may correct a little less cold as typically does but around 540 with a 900 to 800 -2 mean would still be sufficient So that’s the lay in early week - most likely … question is, how much so does that air mass rot further before minoring low passage mid week ? I’m noticing a tendency hold more PP draped over C-NNE, a trend that could help for those hoping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 31 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Mowvember - nicer lawns in Nov than May. SST's in GOM still in mid 50's. Finish +10? We're at +10.2 thru yesterday here. Continuing at +10 the rest of November is a reach (gross understatement). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: By "It uses topography ", he means "I"... Live shot of the model in action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Also, where did this idea of arctic cold and snows come from? I even specifically said that is not happening. It’s a change to something that can support a snow event for NNE and interior….and perhaps more widespread. Somehow that got twisted into saying we are turning into Denali. It’s an overall BN look but we know when highs are still in the 50s in spots…it’s not a January cold spell. Nobody ever said that. But highs in low 40s with low dews can support a winter event inland. That’s how I view this anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Also, where did this idea of arctic cold and snows come from? I even specifically said that is not happening. It’s a change to something that can support a snow event for NNE and interior….and perhaps more widespread. Somehow that got twisted into saying we are turning into Denali. It’s an overall BN look but we know when highs are still in the 50s in spots…it’s not a January cold spell. Nobody ever said that. But highs in low 40s with low dews can support a winter event inland. That’s how I view this anyways. Shaping narratives is the thing on here the past 5-8 years. We’ll run the numbers when the next 2 weeks is done. My guess is the next two weeks (after tomorrow…so from 11/13-11/26) average well below average temps. Prob somewhere in the -6 to -10 range. You can’t really lie/spin effectively if empirical evidence is opposing your narrative. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Where does Kevin find this shit? There’s good Mets everywhere! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Shaping narratives is the thing on here the past 5-8 years. We’ll run the numbers when the next 2 weeks is done. My guess is the next two weeks (after tomorrow…so from 11/13-11/26) average well below average temps. Prob somewhere in the -6 to -10 range. You can’t really lie/spin effectively if empirical evidence is opposing your narrative. I feel like you totally can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Shaping narratives is the thing on here the past 5-8 years. We’ll run the numbers when the next 2 weeks is done. My guess is the next two weeks (after tomorrow…so from 11/13-11/26) average well below average temps. Prob somewhere in the -6 to -10 range. You can’t really lie/spin effectively if empirical evidence is opposing your narrative. Yeah I don’t understand it. Looks like a BN look to me. But people are acting like everyone called for highs in the 20s with blizzards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I don’t understand it. Looks like a BN look to me. But people are acting like everyone called for highs in the 20s with blizzards. Weenies will weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Weenies will weenie except it's not the weenies (well, maybe 1 or 2). in this case, it's a met saying that people are calling for that 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 47 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: I feel like you totally can Sure you can try but you’ll look ridiculous if the empirical evidence doesn’t back you up. 16 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: except it's not the weenies (well, maybe 1 or 2). in this case, it's a met saying that people are calling for that 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Just checking out latest gfs compared to climo. Next 10 days look to be 5-10 degrees below average with respect to highs with lows right about average. So nothing too crazy. Will probably be -4 to -8 for the next 7-10 days. The we return to seasonal for thanksgiving week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 35 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: except it's not the weenies (well, maybe 1 or 2). in this case, it's a met saying that people are calling for that Exactly This. It’s really just one person, who can’t admit he called it wrong. Nobody was ever calling for snow or arctic cold…he’s spinning that BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Shaping narratives is the thing on here the past 5-8 years. We’ll run the numbers when the next 2 weeks is done. My guess is the next two weeks (after tomorrow…so from 11/13-11/26) average well below average temps. Prob somewhere in the -6 to -10 range. You can’t really lie/spin effectively if empirical evidence is opposing your narrative. Heh. It’s normal crowd physical group theory lol … give it enough time they’ll be speaking an entirely new language, too and in that new vernacular they’ll have codified 72 different words for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Note there is no quantification of what "winter weather" risk entails... Is it a coating, a couple of inches, a foot of snow??? Or is just some flakes in the air a a few pellets bouncing around? Meaningless graphic in me eyes... 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Where does Kevin find this shit? The Dark Web! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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