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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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19 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I’m with you… the Weather Channel forecast maps back in the day were the holy grail.  Seeing that 12”+ color was as invigorating as anything lol.  Then wait for the Local on the 8’s to see the huge snowflake with his little buddy and just the word “Snow” under it.  Like a drug in middle school back then… just wait another 10 minutes to get the next hit when the Local on the 8’s starts up again.

OMG…loved that Huge Snowflake with the little one.  As you said, that would get me so pumped.  My parents used to laugh at me how excited I would get…they’d be like ok we are changing this dumb ass channel, you’ve been watching the same crap for hours…Lmao. :mapsnow: And we didn’t get the weather channel until like 1995 on our cable lineup…I was already out of college at that point. 

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11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Just watched this on my TV. Stream it on your Firestick Roku. Unreal long fetch through many tide cycles on dunes severely damaged by Ian. Anyone who has driven on Daytona Beach  can relate.

 

my family hae property in Daytona Beach shores, about a mile from dunlawton, where that deck and lifeguard station went in, that entire zea wall was wrecked by Ian and this just put it over the top, lot of high rise condos, very near toppling into the Atlantic, crazy, I've been walking that stretch of beach since I was a kid, I may have to swing by on my way home just to assess the damage next week... crazy

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OMG…loved that Huge Snowflake with the little one.  As you said, that would get me so pumped.  My parents used to laugh at me how excited I would get…they’d be like ok we are changing this dumb ass channel, you’ve been watching the same crap for hours…Lmao. :mapsnow: And we didn’t get the weather channel until like 1995 on our cable lineup…I was already out of college at that point. 

The red scrolling screen with the alert tones like the soviets were attacking was like crack to a kid growing up in the 80s. I saw that and I knew it was about to get real (which meant about 3-6 during those years)


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Picture this, 1969 Feb Lyndsey Storm. I am 12 we have a neighborhood with one road in with about 25 kids. It snows like a mofo we get a day off, we built forts, sledded, had fights and were told about 4 pm , no school the next day. However overnight the town was able to open all roads and schools. When we woke up the radio and TV announced a 9AM opening.  Well that shit didn't go over in my hood. At 8am we organized everyone 1st graders to 8th graders. We rolled huge truck tire size balls of snow and blocked the only road in. Needless to say after a week of detention for us older kids spent shoveling and chopping ice, we never did that again, although we did have our moment of glory when the story made the local rag. Good times 

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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

 

How naive I was, ha. Then in later years like 2004-05 I found out what suppression was :lol:.

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Ummm, I may be off a year here, but I have pics from jan-march 2005 that show absolutely silly snow where I lived in Stowe on Mansfield View rd.  Maybe it was just a Burlington thing?  I'd never want to go against the powerfreak but man I have (had) time stamped photos of epic snow on my deck.  If only I could find them!  

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6 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Picture this, 1969 Feb Lyndsey Storm. I am 12 we have a neighborhood with one road in with about 25 kids. It snows like a mofo we get a day off, we built forts, sledded, had fights and were told about 4 pm , no school the next day. However overnight the town was able to open all roads and schools. When we woke up the radio and TV announced a 9AM opening.  Well that shit didn't go over in my hood. At 8am we organized everyone 1st graders to 8th graders. We rolled huge truck tire size balls of snow and blocked the only road in. Needless to say after a week of detention for us older kids spent shoveling and chopping ice, we never did that again, although we did have our moment of glory when the story made the local rag. Good times 

Didn’t they make a movie about that called Snow Day? Lol

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4 hours ago, dmcginvt said:

Ummm, I may be off a year here, but I have pics from jan-march 2005 that show absolutely silly snow where I lived in Stowe on Mansfield View rd.  Maybe it was just a Burlington thing?  I'd never want to go against the powerfreak but man I have (had) time stamped photos of epic snow on my deck.  If only I could find them!  

Interesting on 2005.  The Stake dropped to 40” in early February that winter.  It wasn’t a bad winter, just about average, but compared to what happened down in SNE it was suppression with 100” seasonal totals for places that average 30-40”.

Relatively speaking it was a suppression type season for the anomalies IMO…. But there was a good 4-week run in mid-Feb to mid-March.

97578F88-65BE-40D6-9120-227C8DEACBC6.jpeg.4cb710ea40e7ccbef97a3c64d108d83e.jpeg

 

 

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Yup … woulda started a thread for D5.5 by now… just not sure climo cold rain (typical Novie heart ache) resonates well enough with this particular social media depot … lol. 

Yeah …so, two from-orbit aspects make that interesting.  The fact that a whole scale pattern change has taken place, a colder one during a boundary month, this then being the first synoptic system two occur during either distinction. It’s more virtue for Meteorologist and more serious hobbyists, perhaps  but anyone should be encouraged by the general synoptic hemisphere for only mid November, and seeing/knowing this is happening ( should it actually do so) is encouraging for winter enthusiasts. I guess I’m trying to convince myself to actually do so lol

But taking a closer look at that system, it is also taking advantage of both those distinctions; it is moving through an initially marginal cold. Particularly out near Albany up through C—NNE at least cat pawing white rain fatties or start up flakes wouldn’t be a shocker.  It is also close enough to marginal that subtle variation in the 850 mbar layout/cold density combined with track perturbations might end up slightly more suppressed etc. etc. I mean that’s how marginal events cash.  There’s other problems like… me testing my hypothesis that our flop direction tends to be more liquid than white compared to 30 years ago being one of them for me. Heh. 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Torch Kevin is more tolerable than winter Kevin. 

What are you thinking you’re missing that others see?

At present,
with the timing of the low looking to impact the region overnight,
the snow risk seems isolated to portions of our CWA north and west
of I-95. Current guidance is not hinting at any sort of significant
accumulation, but there is always a sense of excitement watching the
first flake of the season fly! The trend will be our friend when
forecasting p-type for this system.
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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Trend for next week is to hug. Would be a great event in mid December, but it’s early in the season. 

3 weeks from now that system would prob be a really good SWFE. But prob mostly an NNE event this time and at elevation. 

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What are you thinking you’re missing that others see?

At present,
with the timing of the low looking to impact the region overnight,
the snow risk seems isolated to portions of our CWA north and west
of I-95. Current guidance is not hinting at any sort of significant
accumulation, but there is always a sense of excitement watching the
first flake of the season fly! The trend will be our friend when
forecasting p-type for this system.

There’s a chance is starts as a bit of snow but I’d prob lean against it right now. 

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44 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

A few flakes for some but mostly if not all rain for the majority in SNE

There’s a chance it trends colder. It’s still 5+ days out. But there’s more ways for it to rain this early so that’s the safe forecast. 

My guess right now is that if it did start as snow, it would be short lived. 

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