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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I realize folks need the word snow implied if not explicit but the ice option is on the table too for either systems embedded  d6-10. 

That said … the time range is obviously in fluid status in these guidance. But both the 0Z Euros focus on D7 and the GFS latter appear at least to me to be constructed with a lot climo in mind. 

Did someone say … Ice?

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12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What was that event?

Prob the worst ice storm on record for most of SNE. 2008 may have been worse in N ORH county and near NH border....though even that is up for debate. Certainly further south, 1921 was the worst.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Prob the worst ice storm on record for most of SNE. 2008 may have been worse in N ORH county and near NH border....though even that is up for debate. Certainly further south, 1921 was the worst.

I just looked it up . I should have remembered that one. That’s the one that famous picture you always see of near PVD encased in ice is from  . Let’s hope that is exactly the type of ice storm coming this month . 

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3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

 

Both of you get on your knees and ask for forgiveness. 1717, you can hold the pope’s hand…he’ll show you how, he’s done it many times before.

We get close to Normal temps in November this clown celebrates, a cold snap. Been so warm you forgot what your climo is.  Guy still staring out 3 weeks, when his weeklies from 2 weeks ago turned to this. Ooops

:clown:eps_z500a_us_25.png

 

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56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What was that event?

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/2/12/1520-0477-2_12_139.xml

 

Quote

ICE STORM AT WORCESTER, MASS., NOV. 26-29, 1921
Even the "oldest inhabitant" admits the ice storm of Nov. 26-29 was the worst that has been known in this section. The ice and sleet which collected on Thanksgiving day were practically gone when the storm started. Friday was brilliantly clear till late afternoon, and Saturday morning the sky was covered with a thick, snowy, alto-stratus cloud. Snow began to fall at 2 p. m. and continued heavily until 4.45 p. m., when it changed to rain. The temperature of wet surfaces remained below freezing and the rain froze, forming a crust on the snow. Sunday it rained till afternoon, when sleet and moderate rail fell intermittently. The temperature fell to 25°F. in the evening. About 10 p. m. it started to rain steadily. By Monday morning the ice whicb. had formed on the trees was nearly an inch thick on exposed branches and many of the

upper ones had broken off and fallen to the ground. The rain con- tinued all day Monday with the rising north-northeast wind, and the temperature just below freezing. By 5 p. m. it was dangerous to walk along the street so many limbs and wires were falling.

A wild night followed. Sleet rattled and rain pattered and the ice laden trees creaked continuously. With the passage of each roaring gust, down crashed great branches from trees. The low clouds were in- termittently lighted by vivid green flashes from trolley wheels. At daylight a thunderstorm with pink flashes of lightning awakened the people to a scene of sad destruction. Pelting rain and sleet continued to drive by at high speed. The heavy rain which fell Mondoy night did not freeze as much as that which fell previously, except where the wind was uninter- rupted, as the lowest temperature was 28. This water combined with a new fall of inches of sleet and the previous ice, covered thoroughfares

with 5 inches of slush and water. The thunderstorm on Tuesday morning announced the approach of the end. By Tuesday noon there was hardly a tree that had not lost at least one good sized branch. Ice on exposed ordinary insulated electric wires about %-inch in diameter was more than 2 inches thick, and weighed upwards of 1.3 pounds per foot.i It was com- puted that ice on the side of any dense, unbroken evergreen tree 50 feet high and on the average 20 feet wide would have weighed 5 tons. Large crews were kept busy keeping the main thoroughfares cleared of the debris. Tele- phones, electric lights, telegraphs—everything was out of order. Whole lines of telephone and trolley poles were snapped at the base, crippling both ser- vices. For days trolleys did not run in many places and trains were hours

late as the crews had to stop to remove poles from the tracks. Schools 

were closed and mail service was badly interrupted. Several people were injured by falling branches and ice, and a number of horses were killed. The damage in Worcester was estimated at several hundred thousand dol lars.

The total precipitation which fell in the 7 5 h o u r s of the storm was 4.05 inches as collected in the rain gage on the roof of the main building, Clark University. Of this, 0.28 was melted snow, and about 1.65 melted sleet. On the following day, bright sunshine soon relieved unbroken branches of some of their load of ice, though not without first inflicting fur- ther damage to some trees by expanding the ice on overweighted limbs.

The unusual duration of this ice storm seems to have been due to a large supply of cold air flowing southwards, and of warm air going northwards above it. The cold wind at the surface, as is usual when sleet or ice storms occur,2 formed a barrier over which the warm wind had to rise. It was this rising and the consequent cooling by expansion which reduced the vapor capacity of the wind aloft and thus produced rainfall. The two currents in this case were surprisingly well balanced. The tempera- ture of the lower one did not rise enough above freezing to prevent the con- tinued formation of ice, while the wind above, after the first fall of snow, remained continuously so much above freezing that all the pre- cipitation from it was in the form of rain.

It was interesting to note that the conditions which gave the big ice storm here also caused very severe ice storms in Oregon and Washington on November 20 and 21, said to be the worst since 1916, and destroyed thou- sands of orchard trees.

Another account of this storm will probably appear in the Monthly Weather Review at a later date.—G. F. Howe and C. F. Brooks.

Damage

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3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

You could just post the GEFS at 144 vs the EPS, and tell everyone why you're hugging the GEFS.

PS the pacific is going to shit next week. 

 

 

dude what are you talking about? the EPS is still well below normal for the same time period

and yes, it is, but it's likely just a relaxation before a reload in December

just accept the L like a normal person lmao

bed9f1fc-211f-4e91-820a-e0e5ea1edd71.thumb.gif.1d55daf4d1da1614dd48305adf6b7c25.gif

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