November 2022 OBS/DISC

[tavwtby]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Nothing like being in tropical. Congrats.

yeah it's rockin outside right now, nice band come through, power flickering a bit

[Typhoon Tip]

Nicole looks like dung 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Right… I’m talking more like 5+. We had 6” or so in November 18 and I can’t remember another multiple inch event at least back to 2000 here 

Nov 2002, 2004, Nov 2012 i think had a few there, Nov 2014 had a couple events add to maybe 3-4” there. So if you avg it out it’s probably only 1” in Nov and that’s from sporadic storms. Probably due for at least a small event. 

[FXWX]

8 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

 

While I agreed with general timing of the pattern transition, also thought it would likely trend later as we got closer.  That is obviously not the case.  The one caution I would urge though is be wary of how firmly New England gets into the solidly colder than normal zone.  It is very common during La Niña events for the core of the cold be anchored well west of New England.  The euro ens (above) and other products clearly show this tendency.  While sitting on the eastern edge of the cold shield could allow for an active start to the winter storm season for us, it could limit our early season snow potential, as favored storm track could be through or west of New England???  Just a thought… I’d like to see the core of the cold anomaly positioned over the Midwest / Great Lakes region.

[tavwtby]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Nicole looks like dung 

it's not a cat three or better but no dung, wind field is massive, we just had a 70gust, albeit a local station so data is questionable, haven't looked at metar in a while

[tavwtby]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nov 2002, 2004, Nov 2012 i think had a few there, Nov 2014 had a couple events add to maybe 3-4” there. So if you avg it out it’s probably only 1” in Nov and that’s from sporadic storms. Probably due for at least a small event. 

what was the last region wide measurable, more than 3", 2018? Didn't we have a decent event in early November 2011, after that freak storm, or do I have the wrong year

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

what was the last region wide measurable, more than 3", 2018? Didn't we have a decent event in early November 2011, after that freak storm, or do I have the wrong year

You’re thinking of 2012. Son of Sandy. 

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You’re thinking of 2012. Son of Sandy. 

Yup I listed that one in my post, along with 02. 

[tavwtby]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You’re thinking of 2012. Son of Sandy. 

ah yeah, knew it was close to that time frame

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nov 2002, 2004, Nov 2012 i think had a few there, Nov 2014 had a couple events add to maybe 3-4” there. So if you avg it out it’s probably only 1” in Nov and that’s from sporadic storms. Probably due for at least a small event. 

I don’t remember getting squat here in 2012. I’d agree, even for the meager numbers we put up, one event over 4” over the last 20 years, we are probably due sooner rather than later for something 

[ineedsnow]

Euro next Wednesday might be fun 

[Ginx snewx]

Wow

[Ginx snewx]

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Where’s the pope…who scolded everyone for believing? 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Where’s the pope…who scolded everyone for believing? 

He’s on the wrong side of many ideas it seems, more times than not.  
 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Where’s the pope…who scolded everyone for believing? 

Great snow1717 also warned it was not gonna happen/change either. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

On 11/3/2022 at 9:09 AM, jbenedet said:

People forecasting the next cold snap before we have even seen the depths of the warm-up. Pull out the darts.

 

Sorry guys, however much you want to believe the screen-- it's not that good; not even close. 

 

On 11/3/2022 at 9:21 AM, jbenedet said:

 

Just stare at the models. They have all the answers. Meteorology deserves a lot more respect than economics as a field of study. We have ourselves to blame.

 

On 11/3/2022 at 10:18 AM, Great Snow 1717 said:

Correct!

Both of you get on your knees and ask for forgiveness. 1717, you can hold the pope’s hand…he’ll show you how, he’s done it many times before.

[ORH_wxman]

Some threats showing up in the medium/long range which isn’t a huge surprise given the pattern developing. We’ll see if we can actually cash in. I’d be surprised if NNE at least doesn’t but decent chance SNE could see something too. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

He’s on the wrong side of many ideas it seems, more times than not.  
 

Makes me think it’s a parody acct. He probably doesn’t have a met degree and he’s probably never been to church.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

 

Both of you get on your knees and ask for forgiveness. 1717, you can hold the pope’s hand…he’ll show you how, he’s done it many times before.

Wow, That’s a lot of crow being served up. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1717 weather takes are as bad as his sports takes apparently

[CoastalWx]

[CoastalWx]

I didn’t see the ensembles, but the op runs at some pretty interesting solutions especially inland.

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

1717 weather takes are as bad as his sports takes apparently

We need an epic meme fail, that’s not funny.

[Ginx snewx]

30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some threats showing up in the medium/long range which isn’t a huge surprise given the pattern developing. We’ll see if we can actually cash in. I’d be surprised if NNE at least doesn’t but decent chance SNE could see something too. 

Typical late Nov storm. Heavy rain at the coast with concrete inland 

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah the one late next week looks like a needle-threader but even if that one didn’t work out I’d bet on more chances Tday week assuming the pattern being depicted doesn’t change too much. 

[Ginx snewx]

I just like how the wind is oppo on each Florida coast.  230 K without power. My sis in law just north of Tampa just lost it. Eye should go right over her 

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the one late next week looks like a needle-threader but even if that one didn’t work out I’d bet on more chances Tday week assuming the pattern being depicted doesn’t change too much. 

Check out the EPS. Not usually a fan of the trough south of PANC, but the Aleutian ridge along with the increasing Greenland ridging make up for it. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I realize folks need the word snow implied if not explicit but the ice option is on the table too for either systems embedded  d6-10. 

That said … the time range is obviously in fluid status in these guidance. But both the 0Z Euros focus on D7 and the GFS latter appear at least to me to be constructed with a lot climo in mind. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I don’t like the progressive look … personally speaking. 

It annoys me to see that downstream and hours from a NE PAC/Alaskan hgt burst … one that appears may even be cyclic not necessarily a one time deal no less … immediately the “to much velocity” tendencies evolve.  The “threader” looks of the GFS are a direct manifestation of those controls.

I suppose with the background Niña and/or CC and Hadley compression or which or whatever there is still lurking … prior to the -EPO, the two are sort of in completion. A battle that’s less likely to go away, whereby slower movement where/whence the total torque budget is spent in the storm itself rather than stuck in the long wave wind maxing 156 kts.  101: waves in atmosphere tend to remain open when they are velocity soaked.