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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

What a great call by Ginxy.  I mean you look to have nailed this change/cold coming with pin point precision.  Most impressive imo.  Wow.  
 

Oh and, I almost forgot about the “Home Brew too..guy is on fire. 

Cards were on the table for both. Huge EPO bump, models always correct late for that magnitude of EPO, home brew was a no brainer for weeks. Thanks for the compliment win some lose a lot. Such is the weather. Hopefully carries well into Dec.

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23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tasty early season runs today.

With that extended euro layout… weather we are enjoying it with snow on the ground or not with these sloped sun angles through that deep layer trajectory and overall synoptic ambience… ? Easily talkin pond skating and outdoor hockey by thanks  giggity

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47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tasty early season runs today.

that 50/50 and -NAO dipole is already beginning to show up. always very nice to see the deepest negative anomalies in the 50/50 region

track that 2 weeks forward - Aleutian LP builds as the Pacific jet extends alongside retrograding Scandinavian ridging and you're looking at a really nice pattern after the first week of December

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-9291200.thumb.png.b9aa4180955d861fc6c4a7f8a11189ec.png

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28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that 50/50 and -NAO dipole is already beginning to show up. always very nice to see the deepest negative anomalies in the 50/50 region

track that 2 weeks forward - Aleutian LP builds as the Pacific jet extends alongside retrograding Scandinavian ridging and you're looking at a really nice pattern after the first week of December

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-9291200.thumb.png.b9aa4180955d861fc6c4a7f8a11189ec.png

 

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Little ridge bridge trying to show up on the 10-15 day you can see from Brooklynwx99’s post. 
 

That helps push those negative anomalies further south into New England. You can bet there would likely be a winter threat or two in that type of pattern even in late November. 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Little ridge bridge trying to show up on the 10-15 day you can see from Brooklynwx99’s post. 
 

That helps push those negative anomalies further south into New England. You can bet there would likely be a winter threat or two in that type of pattern even in late November. 

I’m not sure what the return on November snow is here, but I feel like I’m the grand scheme, we are due. Outside of Nov 18, I can’t recall a November snow event here, at least not in the last 20 years. That was more than a coating or flurries.

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5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Well I was comparing the EC weeklies and then using the 6-10 day from the latest EPS to show how bad the weeklies did from week 3 initialized on 10/27. My guess is the CFS weeklies also showed a torch too. 

I’ve been recently taken an interest in the 00z 840 HR GEFS ensemble runs that are available on TT. They are usually a day behind to complete. IMO, not as good as the Euro weeklies but better than the CFS weeklies. They might have even been more into this cold anomaly setup earlier than the others. Most of the output can be separated into 5 day intervals. Not sure how others (especially mets) feel about it…

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3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m not sure what the return on November snow is here, but I feel like I’m the grand scheme, we are due. Outside of Nov 18, I can’t recall a November snow event here, at least not in the last 20 years. That was more than a coating or flurries.

Outside of a snow event of a few inches or more every several years…it’s a coating to an Inch here or there. 

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11 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

I’ve been recently taken an interest in the 00z 840 HR GEFS ensemble runs that are available on TT. They are usually a day behind to complete. IMO, not as good as the Euro weeklies but better than the CFS weeklies. They might have even been more into this cold anomaly setup earlier than the others. Most of the output can be separated into 5 day intervals. Not sure how others (especially mets) feel about it…

I have not looked at those yet. I’ll have to look.

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while everyone is focusing on snow that may be there right when I get back, I can say that I was within 20 miles of landfall of hurricane Nicole, stuck in hotel on Juno Beach, high tide at 2115, might have to go see that... latest Dropsonde showed over 62kts from surface up, eye near calm, definitely defined eye now...love this! first actual hurricane for me since Gloria

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6 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

while everyone is focusing on snow that may be there right when I get back, I can say that I was within 20 miles of landfall of hurricane Nicole, stuck in hotel on Juno Beach, high tide at 2115, might have to go see that... latest Dropsonde showed over 62kts from surface up, eye near calm, definitely defined eye now...love this! first actual hurricane for me since Gloria

Danger ahead 

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