Typhoon Tip Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Sorta half fake for us. I mean you can kinda tell by the deltas. Or rate of change. A week ago … we’d be 10:10 am at still just 41 down in the inverted layer. Now is 9:10 but outside of humans fiddling with time conventions the real deltas are moving up much slower, regardless. We were recovering some 25 deg by this time of morning before. One day I recall it went from dawn 30 to 62 by 10:40. Meanwhile the hydrostats are around 550dm over SNE …granted a bit cooler albeit briefly N. That’s not exactly “cold”. We’ve been 70F with shallower thickness than that. I’ve noticed that a lot in recent years actually. Kind of an interesting thickness imbalance in the loading between given 700-500mb layer compared to what typically occurs beneath. The above layer is warmer than expected. Not all the time .. no but we have a “half fake” cold under thickness that could be indicative of a warmer result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Don't be fooled by the cold temps this morning, They're fake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 It was 30 here earlier, it felt colder cuz we had 66 for lows for a few nights. Can we Talk about what might be coming Friday/Saturday? And beyond. I think we’ve exhausted the fake cold BS at this point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: It was 30 here earlier, it felt colder cuz we had 66 for lows for a few nights. Can we Talk about what might be coming Friday/Saturday? And beyond. I think we’ve exhausted the fake cold BS at this point. Rain and wind this weekend, Then more fake cold next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: That's very professional looking. I’m trying to understand the addition of the extra black line near the tip. There’s no date text associated with it like the other lines have. Intern gone wild. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’m trying to understand the addition of the extra black line near the tip. There’s no date text associated with it like the other lines have. Intern gone wild. Bob Stokes working the desk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: That's very professional looking. 1 hour ago, dendrite said: It’s real https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/115326.shtml?mltoa34#contents Prayers for Washington DC they look to get hit “head on” 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Looks like some of it was loped off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Looks like some of it was loped off. Jay's wife work for NHC?? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 22 minutes ago, dryslot said: Looks like some of it was loped off. It was Lorraina Bobbit’ed …Chomp! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Will should question the ASOS there ORH tickled 32F in between obs so technically a freeze. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Looks like one week from now may be the first legit chance of something for at least NNE and interior. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like one week from now may be the first legit chance of something for at least NNE and interior. Ok…at least something is showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Just now, WinterWolf said: Ok…at least something is showing up. It is, but caveats apply. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It is, but caveats apply. Oh ya…I completely understand that, and I think most all of us do too...or should. Heading in a decent direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It is, but caveats apply. Its early on, So the usual suspects will struggle unless the air mass overhead is consistent through out the column to the surface. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Don't be fooled by the cold temps this morning, They're fake. Only down to 23 at our fake cold kingdom - that's just 4° lower than the average for Nov 9 and we reached the same temp 4 weeks ago. Meh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Notice how the trend is colder and colder each Ens run. Some laughed... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: ORH tickled 32F in between obs so technically a freeze. Glad that's over with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Notice how the trend is colder and colder each Ens run. Some laughed... You tried to tell 'em but they just wouldn't listen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 My low was 30. When I returned from California my allergies went wild as if it were late spring. Thankfully with the cooler weather they’re gone-first non Allegra day for me since my return last Thursday night. Now we move from early ore season to late roster changes before opening day. Start to winter looks good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 What a great call by Ginxy. I mean you look to have nailed this change/cold coming with pin point precision. Most impressive imo. Wow. Oh and, I almost forgot about the “Home Brew too..guy is on fire. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: What a great call by Ginxy. I mean you look to have nailed this change/cold coming with pin point precision. Most impressive imo. Wow. I for sure thought it would be delayed, but the start looks good. I don't know about the longevity yet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I for sure thought it would be delayed, but the start looks good. I don't know about the longevity yet. Many times it is delayed, but Yup it does look right on target. Impressive call on his part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Many times it is delayed, but Yup it does look right on target. Impressive call on his part. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Not totally apples to apples, but it does not matter. One of the most spectacular week 3 fails from the EC weeklies I have ever seen. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 God I love the GFS… Lays down 6 to 10” from a flat wave on DCA on the 21st and we get jack shit … Maybe it’s warning us about the winter lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not totally apples to apples, but it does not matter. One of the most spectacular week 3 fails from the EC weeklies I have ever seen. How did the Gfs ensembles do… Granted I don’t think they have any products that go out that far or are supposed to specialize in that kind of range? I don’t know no intent to detract from any other peoples accomplishments but this was suggested about three weeks ago when I was looking at stuff and I said so then I said we probably would get nailed in November course I have different methods admittedly. Anyway point is this isnt the first time the GFS ensembles seem to outperform the EPS … Seems to happen more so than it used to and I’m wondering if it’s just improvements in the model? Or maybe euros failing in recent versions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: How did the Gfs ensembles do… Granted I don’t think they have any products that go out that far or are supposed to specialize in that kind of range? I don’t know no intent to detract from any other peoples accomplishments but this was suggested about three weeks ago when I was looking at stuff and I said so then I said we probably would get nailed in November course I have different methods admittedly. Anyway point isnt this is the first time the GFS ensembles seem to outperform the EPS … Seems to happen more so than it used to and I’m wondering if it’s just improvements in the model? Or maybe euros failing in recent versions Well I was comparing the EC weeklies and then using the 6-10 day from the latest EPS to show how bad the weeklies did from week 3 initialized on 10/27. My guess is the CFS weeklies also showed a torch too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not totally apples to apples, but it does not matter. One of the most spectacular week 3 fails from the EC weeklies I have ever seen. The weeklies have struggled the last few years out at week 3, And even some week 2's as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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