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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like if ORH doesn’t do it (I think they tickled 32 briefly?) next chance is Monday or Tuesday next week. Logan should do it too. Same here I suppose. 

If they hit 32.. technically it’s a freeze. I don’t consider my 31.2 a real freeze. To me 29 and under is a freeze

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Status quo this morning … 

changing of the hemispheric guard enters personnel rotation this weekend and the incoming administration has very different legislation in mind.  

New policy okays winter storms and even opens the reception hall as early as D 6..7 .. not sure if the guests will actually arrive - not getting much in the way of RSVPs on that.  Could just be a DJ with his arms crossed talkin to the hottie maitre d’ 

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Actually … starting to get that “staged” arrival look hinted now, too. 

 - total negative EPO and nadir of the flow in southern Canada more towards the end of next week. I mentioned this the other day… Seldom do we go directly from 70s to 30s without at least an interlude in the 50s in there and it’s possible that the first shot of cold air from Sunday into Tuesday sort of moderates into that range. 54/27..48/23  Ensembles of euro and gefs and the operational to some degree show better flex in the new pattern deeper next week  

So we’ll see. 

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EPS suggests a gradient pattern may develop over New England at the end of the run. I wouldn’t call it a SE ridge, but as the flow tries to relax with EPO ridge retrogression, the ridging develops a tad heading into Greenland. At the same time Canada is very cold.  So verbatim battle ground is over New England towards the end. What you want to see is that ridging in Greenland take over and help pin the cold into eastern Canada. I’m not sure I buy that at the moment.

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